青藏高原地区积雪变化及特征分析

利用我国高原地区1963-2002年的逐月积雪日数资料,以及1972-2011年的格点积雪月频率资料,分析、对比了两种资料在该地区的时空演变特征。结果表明：同时段的(1972-2002)站点资料与格点资料相比,空间分布其高值区与积雪日数增值区均偏西北,偏北程度大致为3~4°,偏西程度大致为2~3°,且中心更为明显。在青藏高原西侧(85°E以西),积雪日数呈整体下降趋势。两种资料的积雪日数EOF分析存在一定的偏差,这与其对应的空间分布差异及气候趋势空间分布存在的偏差相吻合。     

天气衍生品的运作机制与精算定价

天气衍生品是为了规避天气风险给天气敏感行业带来收入的不稳定性而兴起的创新型风险管理工具，其实质是通过衍生合约对天气风险进行分割、重组和交易的证券化产品。不同于传统金融衍生品，天气衍生品的价值取决于温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数。本文在分析天气衍生品市场发展的基础上，重点探讨了最常见的天气期货和天气期权的运作机制及其精算定价。     

祁连山南麓高寒灌丛GPP变化特征及对生长季积温的响应

全球气候变化背景下气温逐渐升高,将会对陆地生态系统碳循环产生重要影响。研究利用2003?2016年的涡度相关系统观测资料,研究了祁连山南麓高寒灌丛生长季(5月?9月)总初级生产力(gross primary productivity,GPP)在不同时间尺度上对生长季有效积温(growing season degree days,GDD)的响应,对于研究气候变暖对高寒生态系统碳循环的影响有重要意义。结果表明:高寒灌丛生态系统在生长季的月GPP、GDD都表现为先增大后减小的单峰变化趋势,都在7月或8月达到峰值,在5月达到最小值。在整个生长季尺度上,GPP与GDD具有较高变异性,但整体上表现为逐渐增加的趋势(P<0.05)。2003?2016年整个生长季GPP与GDD的均值分别为507.11 g·m^?2和975.93℃。在月尺度和生长季尺度上,GPP与GDD都呈显著正相关关系(P<0.05)。但是,通过比较生长季每个月GPP与GDD的关系发现,5、9月的GPP与GDD没有显著相关性(P>0.05),而在7月相关性最为显著(P<0.01)。整体上看,高寒灌丛生态系统植被的总初级生产力与热量条件表现为正相关关系,由此说明在全球气候变暖的背景下,青藏高原高寒灌丛生态系统植被的光合生产能力将会提高。     

X射线灭活活体日本沼虾精子的初步研究

为检测X射线对日本沼虾精子的灭活效果,利用X射线对雄性日本沼虾进行不同时间的照射处理,将处理后的雄虾与刚完成生殖脱壳的雌虾交配。待雌虾产卵后,计数雌虾抱卵天数,并在显微镜下观察卵的畸形情况。X射线管照射强度为100 k V,5 m A,源距10 cm,照射时间为0、30、60、90、120 min。结果发现:照射30 min组的抱卵天数及卵的畸形率较0 min组无变化,卵的畸形率为0,卵能正常发育至孵化出膜。随着照射时间的增加,在30~90 min之间,雌虾抱卵天数逐渐减少,且所抱卵的畸形率呈上升趋势。照射120 min组的抱卵天数较90 min组变化不大,卵的畸形率达100%。在本试验照射时间范围(0~120 min)内,灭活日本沼虾精子遗传物质的最佳照射时间为90~120 min。     

基于约束的虚拟装配运动导航技术

在虚拟装配过程中,当虚拟手抓取的零部件受到约束时,操作者佩戴的位姿跟踪器(FOB)检测到的理论位姿数据与虚拟手的位姿不能满足一致性,难以满足沉浸感的要求。在建立装配约束和自由度等价关系的基础上提出了表达自由度的统一数据结构,并根据零部件所受到不同约束时的剩余自由度进行了自由度的重新归约;根据零件满足当前约束的等价自由度以及位置跟踪器检测到的数据,提出了一种基于增量驱动和广义坐标系的自由度求解算法求解零件在受约束条件下的运动导航矩阵,以此矩阵驱动零部件在满足约束条件下的运动。这个算法已经被应用于集成虚拟装配系统IVAE中。     

Considering sink strength to model crop production under elevated atmospheric CO2

Climatic changes and elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will affect crop growth and production in the near future. Rising CO₂ concentration is a novel environmental aspect that should be considered when projections for future agricultural productivity are made. In addition to a reducing effect on stomatal conductance and crop transpiration, elevated CO₂ concentration can stimulate crop production. The magnitude of this stimulatory effect (‘CO₂ fertilization’) is subject of discussion. In this study, different calculation procedures of the generic crop model AquaCrop based on a foregoing theoretical framework and a meta-analysis of field responses, respectively, were evaluated against experimental data of free air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) environments. A flexible response of the water productivity parameter of the model to CO₂ concentration was introduced as the best option to consider crop sink strength and responsiveness to CO₂. By varying the response factor, differences in crop sink capacity and trends in breeding and management, which alter crop responsiveness, can be addressed. Projections of maize (Zea mays L.) and potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) production reflecting the differences in responsiveness were simulated for future time horizons when elevated CO₂ concentrations and climatic changes are expected. Variation in future yield potential associated with sink strength could be as high as 27% of the total production. Thus, taking into account crop sink strength and variation in responsiveness is equally relevant to considering climatic changes and elevated CO₂ concentration when assessing future crop production. Indicative values representing the crop responsiveness to elevated CO₂ concentration were proposed for all crops currently available in the database of AquaCrop as a first step in reducing part of the uncertainty involved in modeling future agricultural production.     

Fractionation of soil humic acids by preparative polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis in the presence of concentrated urea

To separate soil humic acids (HAs) into their constituents and characterize them, polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) was carried out in the presence of 7 M urea using a preparative electrophoresis system. Two types of soil HAs were fractionated into nine fractions by PAGE. The dark-colored constituents were recovered from the electrophoretic fractions by precipitation on acidification, and the brown-colored constituents dissolved in the acidic solution of fast-moving fractions were recovered by adsorption onto DAX-8 resin. High-performance size-exclusion chromatography (HPSEC) confirmed that the constituents of the HAs were separated based on their molecular size by PAGE. The dark-colored constituents exhibited higher degrees of humification than did the corresponding unfractionated HAs, except for the constituents remaining in the electrophoretic gels at the end of electrophoresis. Diffuse reflectance infrared spectroscopy revealed that the chemical properties of the dark-colored constituents changed regularly: the content of carboxyl groups decreased and the proportions of proteinous, aliphatic and polysaccharide moieties increased with increasing molecular size. The humification degrees of the constituents adsorbed onto DAX-8 resin were considerably lower than those of the corresponding unfractionated HAs. The chemical properties of the DAX-8-adsorbed constituents were different from those of the dark-colored constituents. Observation of electrophoretic fractions under blue light (470 nm) and HPSEC with fluorescence detection at an excitation wavelength of 460 nm and an emission wavelength of 520 nm showed that green fluorescent substances were largely concentrated in the smallest molecular size fractions and were partitioned into both the dark-colored precipitates and DAX-8-adsorbed fractions. The proportion of organic carbon recovered by precipitation and adsorption onto DAX-8 resin was 45–63%, indicating that substantial parts of the HA constituents were missing. The unrecovered constituents were considered to be acid-soluble, nearly colorless substances. The dissociation of the acid-soluble constituents from the acid-insoluble dark-colored constituents during the preparative PAGE of soil HAs was ascribed to disruption of hydrogen bonding and hydrophobic interactions caused by concentrated urea.     

安徽省油菜花期连阴雨灾害损失评估指标

基于安徽省油菜主产区1980-2009年44个气象台站逐日气象资料和油菜产量资料,采用数理统计方法,获得油菜历年灾损率以及花期连阴雨特征量指标即连阴雨日数、持续降水量和日照时数。按照引入因子对产量的影响最大且因子之间相关性较低的原则,筛选出连阴雨关键致灾因子并确定致灾因子临界值。最后利用K-均值聚类分析方法,建立油菜花期连阴雨灾害评估等级指标,并利用2010-2014年连阴雨灾害样本进行验证。结果表明,油菜花期的连阴雨日数和持续降水量与减产率相关性较高,且因子间相关性较低,可作为连阴雨灾害评估的关键因子;连阴雨日数致灾临界值为3d,持续降水量致灾临界值在江淮区、沿江区和皖南地区分别为20、50和70mm。利用聚类分析法构建的包括江淮、沿江和皖南地区的安徽省油菜主产区花期连阴雨灾害评估指标为：轻度灾损率5%～10%、中度10%～20%、重度20%～30%和特重≥30%,其历史回代和独立样本检验表明轻度和中度准确率较高（88%～100%）,重度和特重准确率相对较低（65%～70%）。     

15℃以上平均气温显著影响温敏雄性不育小麦BNS的育性转换

BNS是一个对温度敏感的小麦雄性不育系,敏感期低温表现不育,高温恢复可育。2014/2015年度小麦生育期间温度相对较高,但BNS的自交结实率比温度相对较低的2011/2012年度低50%以上。为探讨该现象产生的原因,对近4a（2012-2015年）小麦生育期的温度走向,以及温度与BNS自交结实率的关系进行分析。温度走向结果分析表明,不同冬、春温度变化显著影响BNS结实率,暖冬和寒春易降低结实率,寒冬和暖春可提高结实率。这些结果对BNS的影响可能是,暖冬穗发育加快,进入感温期早,再遇正常年份或暖春,育性转换完成快,结实率高,反之结实率低。2014/2015年度属典型暖冬和寒春气候特点,故BNS结实率严重下降。相关分析结果表明,BNS的自交结实率与播种-抽穗的各积温因子均呈负相关,而与翌年3月1日-抽穗的平均温度≥15℃有效积温和平均温度≥15℃的累积日数呈显著正相关;BNS育性转换的温度阈值为12℃,15℃以上温度对自交结实率影响显著;用两个正相关显著的温度参数建立的回归方程可预测BNS自交结实率。研究结果表明,15℃以上平均气温显著影响温敏雄性不育小麦BNS的育性转换,平均温度≥15℃有效积温和平均温度≥15℃的累积日数是两个重要的BNS育性转换温度因子参数。     

灌溉施氮和种植密度对棉花叶面积指数与产量的影响

为构建便于实际应用的棉花叶面积指数和产量模型,综合考虑灌溉、施肥、种植密度及覆膜的影响,建立了基于相对有效积温的普适棉花相对叶面积指数的Logistic模型,并研究了棉花最大叶面积指数与全生育期灌水量、施氮量、种植密度及产量之间的关系。结果表明：覆膜棉花叶面积指数最大时的有效积温为1400℃左右,不覆膜棉花的叶面积指数最大时的有效积温为1600℃左右。棉花最大叶面积指数随耗水量、施氮量呈现出先增后减的变化趋势,而种植密度与最大叶面积指数之间表现出明显的正相关性。综合考虑灌水量、施氮量和种植密度的作用可以较为准确描述最大叶面积指数变化特征。棉花产量随着最大叶面积指数的变化呈现出明显的先增后减的变化趋势,当最大叶面积指数为4.93时籽棉产量最大达6066.2kg/hm2。相对化分析结果表明,覆膜与不覆膜棉花相对叶面积指数的变化趋势基本一致,相应的模型参数也基本相同,从而建立了全国范围内覆膜与不覆膜棉花统一的相对叶面积指数的Logistic模型。该研究为棉花科学种植和精细化管理提供了方法,也为其他作物在不同管理措施和地域时进行建模提供了参考。