Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes

The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system.     

田径内涵嬗变与项目沿革新探索

对奥运会田径比赛项目、奥运历史上曾举行过的项目、田径技术、场地、规则、比赛成绩等方面的演变与发展进行新探索。     

关于地理空间数据整合与持续高效更新存在的问题分析

文章针对当前地理空间数据整合与持续高效更新所存在的问题,在地理空间数据更新中引入了“数据同化”这一思想和概念,对持续高效更新存在的问题及“地理空间数据同化”的涵义和关键技术进行了论述.     

"早稻-冬草莓"轮作模式最佳种植期研究

[目的]研究"早稻-冬草莓"轮作模式最佳种植期.[方法]根据双流县气象局1971 ～ 2010年气象资料,采用滑移气候相似距及数理统计方法,对"早稻-冬草莓"轮作模式最佳种植期进行分析.[结果]冬草莓最佳种植期在8月1日～翌年3月31日,其小苗移栽最早在7月中旬,最晚在8月中旬,最佳移栽时期平均在8月19日.早稻移栽时间平均为3月26日,拟收获期平均为7月26日.[结论]从气象角度研究了"早稻-冬草莓"轮作模式最佳种植期,为双流县推广该模式,最大限度地发挥光、温、水、土地的生态效益提供了科学的决策依据.     

Strong functional stability of soil microbial communities under semiarid Mediterranean conditions and subjected to long-term shifts in baseline precipitation

We investigated the effect of soil microclimate on the structure and functioning of soil microbial communities in a Mediterranean Holm-oak forest subjected to 10 years of partial rain exclusion manipulations, simulating average drought conditions expected in Mediterranean areas for the following decades. We applied a high throughput DNA pyrosequencing technique coupled to parallel measurements of microbial respiration (R_H) and temperature sensitivity of microbial respiration (Q₁₀). Some consistent changes in the structure of bacterial communities suggest a slow process of community shifts parallel to the trend towards oligotrophy in response to long-term droughts. However, the structure of bacterial communities was mainly determined by short-term environmental fluctuations associated with sampling date (winter, spring and summer) rather than long-term (10 years) shifts in baseline precipitation. Moreover, long-term drought did not exert any chronic effect on the functioning of soil microbial communities (R_H and Q₁₀), emphasizing the functional stability of these communities to this long-term but mild shifts in water availability. We hypothesize that the particular conditions of the Mediterranean climate with strong seasonal shifts in both temperature and soil water availability but also characterized by very extreme environmental conditions during summer, was acting as a strong force in community assembling, selecting phenotypes adapted to the semiarid conditions characterizing Mediterranean ecosystems. Relations of climate with the phylogenetic structure and overall diversity of the communities as well as the distribution of the individual responses of different lineages (genera) to climate confirmed our hypotheses, evidencing communities dominated by thermotolerant and drought-tolerant phenotypes.     

Cultivation Influences on Soil Organic Carbon Associated with Texture in Seasonally Frozen Zones

[Objective] This study aimed to examine indicative roles of texture representing soil organic carbon presence and variability subsequent to cultivation under cold temperate climates with seasonal freeze-thaw events.[Method] Three chronosequences were selected for paired comparisons.Soil samples were collected at six depths with a 10 cm increment.Analysis of variance with general linear model and regression was performed for statistical analysis.[Result] In seasonally frozen soils where fragmentation of macroaggregates was stimulated,soil organic carbon level was positively associated with clay ＋ silt proportion due to a wider textural range,better than sole clay content.Exponential function better fitted the experimental data to present progressively increased effectiveness of clay ＋ silt content in maintaining carbon.Clay content explained 12％-41％ and 14％-43％ of variation via linear and exponential functions,respectively.Accordingly,clay ＋ silt content explained 47％-65％ and 46％-70％.[Conclusion] Texture reflected soil organic carbon occurrence as consequences of reclamation.For seasonally frozen soils with wider textural ranges,it is robust to adapt clay ＋ silt content as dependent variable and exponential function.The generated algorithms provided an available pathway to estimate soil organic carbon losses following cultivation and to evaluate soil fertility.     

差不嘎蒿茎叶解剖特征及其与气候因子的关系

差不嘎蒿（Artemisia halodendron）是我国东北部重要的防风固沙植物,本研究利用石蜡切片法观察内蒙古不同地区差不嘎蒿的叶片和茎解剖结构,运用方差分析方法比较不同地区差不嘎蒿解剖结构间的差异性,以逐步回归得出影响解剖数量特征的主导气候因子。结果表明：差不嘎蒿叶为等面叶,表皮细胞为1层,栅栏组织呈环栅型,排列紧密,维管束发达;茎表皮细胞为1层,外韧无限维管束,环状排列,髓发达;来自于北部的呼伦贝尔沙地的差不嘎蒿叶上表皮角质层和茎皮层厚度显著高于科尔沁沙地,髓直径和茎导管直径也有类似趋势;差不嘎蒿栅栏组织厚度、茎筛管直径随生长季降水的减少而增加,叶上表皮角质层、髓直径、茎导管直径随有效温度的减少而增加,表现出对水分和温度的适应性变化。研究结果为本种在不同气候条件下的生态适应性研究提供基础资料。     

吉林南部不同耕作管理下土壤水分对降雨事件的响应

土壤水分对降雨的响应特征与降水在地表和土壤中的分配密切相关。该研究为明确耕作方式对黑土土壤水分对降雨响应的作用,利用时域反射仪原位动态监测吉林南部耕作长期定位试验翻耕（CT）和免耕（NT）下玉米生育期含水率,通过7个指标量化两种耕作管理下土壤水分对降雨量大且持续时间长、降雨量小且持续时间短和降雨量较大且持续时间较短、降雨强度大的3类降雨事件的响应。结果表明：1）CT初始含水率较低,0～2.5、2.5～5和5～10 cm累积增加含水量（ASWI）显著高于NT;随土壤深度增加,CT的ASWI明显下降,而NT基本稳定。2）多数情况下,NT下相邻土层累积增加含水率之比（RSWI）大于100%,而CT低于100%。3）高降雨强度下NT相邻土层对降雨事件的响应时间（DRTlayer）平均值和异常值为负值的频率较多,说明NT下更易发生优先流。因此,极端降雨下NT土壤水分响应更剧烈,有利于降水向下层土壤渗透,减少地表径流形成。     

1982-2010年松花江流域植被动态变化及其与气候因子的相关分析

利用1982-2010年GIMMS和MODIS两种遥感数据集的归一化植被指数（NDVI）数据,分析了松花江流域植被NDVI时空特征及其与气候因子的关系。结果表明,松花江流域植被覆盖存在着显著的空间差异,山区NDVI值明显高于中部平原区。过去29a间,松花江流域植被NDVI稳定性较强,总体上变化趋势不明显,但有明显的阶段性：1982-1990年植被NDVI持续增加;1991-1997年相对稳定,1997-2003年呈波动降低趋势,2003-2010年缓慢上升。基于像元的相关分析表明,松花江流域NDVI与气温和降水量间均具有很强的相关性（P〈0.01）,而且植被NDVI变化受气温影响程度强于降水,针叶林是松花江流域受气温影响最大的植被类型。     

典型自然带土壤氮磷化学计量空间分异特征及其驱动因素研究

植物生活型、地形及区域气候特征等对土壤养分的空间分布有着重要的影响。通过对我国典型自然带土壤氮磷化学计量与植物生活型、地形及气候因素间相互关系的研究,探讨了我国土壤氮磷的空间变异与分布特征及其主要控制因素。结果发现,5个自然带的土壤全氮(TN)和氮磷比(N/P)存在显著差异(p0.01);除温带荒漠带较低(0.47 mg g~(-1))外,土壤全磷(TP)均值总体变化不明显(p0.05)。在不同自然带区域内,TN、TP及N/P变化与海拔、温度及降水呈现出显著的线性和非线性二次相关,即表现出线性与单峰模式。暖温带落叶阔叶林带、温带草原带、温带荒漠带森林土壤中TN,以及青藏高原高寒植被带草本土壤中TP、温带荒漠带森林土壤的N/P主要受海拔因素的影响,而温带草原带草本植物的土壤TP则主要受降水的影响。同时,研究还发现,在多要素共同作用时,其影响程度也略有差异,温度和海拔作为控制因素影响亚热带常绿阔叶林带森林和温带草原带草本土壤TN变化,但前者受温度控制更为明显,后者则以海拔为主要驱动因素,而温带荒漠带草本土壤和森林土壤的TN主要受海拔和降水作用的影响,但以降水影响为主;亚热带常绿阔叶林带森林土壤TP,温带草原带、温带荒漠带和青藏高原高寒植被带草本土壤的N/P受植物生活型、地形及气候的共同影响,但程度略有不同,其中TP表现为降水温度海拔,而N/P为温度海拔降水。因此,在自然带和植物生活型的主控背景下,海拔、温度和降水的主控或交互作用直接驱动土壤氮磷及其化学计量特征的空间分异。