Assessing the options for upland livestock systems under CAP reform: Developing and applying a livestock systems model within whole-farm systems analysis

This paper presents a scenario-based analysis of the impacts of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform for upland agriculture using a Welsh case-study. Specifically the paper examines the impacts of the introduction of the single-farm payment (SFP), the modulation of direct payments under Pillar I of the CAP and the increase in agri-environment payments under Pillar II. Three enterprises are examined, upland sheep rearing with lamb finishing, spring- and autumn-calving suckler-cattle with calf rearing. These enterprises are modelled under conditions in 2002/3, 2004/5 and for the reformed CAP in 2005/6. To support this analysis a livestock system model (LSM) was implemented. The model assesses alternative management regimen using a flexible state-transition approach. This simplifies the realisation and parameterisation of potentially complex management regimen. The model tracks fodder requirements to achieve targets based on defined diets. The LSM underpins whole-farm analyses of stocking-rates, labour and other resource requirements and net-farm income. From the case study the paper concludes that the impacts of the introduction of the CAP reform on the financial performance of the systems are small but negative (a net reduction of around 5% in support). The larger reduction in direct payments (15–18%) is partially offset by agri-environment measures. The paper concludes that while SFP encourages a more market-oriented outlook, the adaptive capacity within systems as they stand is very limited. There are a range of possible adaptation strategies, but for the uplands the extensification of cattle systems by reducing stock numbers and cutting back on labour seems most probable.     

CAPP设计中误差模型的建立

提出了一个在CAPP设计中用于合理制定各工序公差的误差模型。该模型以误差统计和误差传递思想为基础,根据各工序的工艺能力及中间工序加工误差对最终工序加工误差影响的大小来合理制定各工序公差。     

γ辐照降解氯霉素的研究

利用60Coγ射线辐照氯霉素(CAP)纯水溶液和滴眼液,以探明其辐照降解特性。HPLC、吸收光谱和电极法测定结果表明:CAP溶液的辐照降解、脱氯和pH值变化与吸收剂量、CAP浓度及体系组成相关;CAP的辐照降解率随吸收剂量的增大而增加;高浓度比低浓度降解效果差,3×103Gy的吸收剂量使100 mg/L的CAP水溶液降解率达到85.5%,而使1 mg/L、10 mg/L的CAP水溶液降解至仪器检测限以下。     

施氮量对双季稻产量及其群体光合特性的影响

以早稻株两优4024、金优402和晚稻H优159、金优207为试材分析了不同施氮水平对双季稻(早稻、晚稻)产量及群体特性的影响。施氮水平设置为120,150,180,225 kg/hm2(分别记作N1、N2、N3、N4),考察各处理的产量及其形成和分蘖动态、剑叶SPAD值、剑叶光合速率以及干物质积累等变化指标。结果表明:早稻株两优4024、金优402和晚稻H优159、金优207各处理产量均呈N1、N4、N2、N3依次增加的变化趋势;4个供试组合在分蘖盛期的总生物量呈N1、N2、N3、N4依次增大的变化趋势,在齐穗后13 d、成熟期4个组合的总生物量均呈N1、N4、N2、N3依次增大的变化趋势;相关分析发现,齐穗后13 d、成熟期的叶干质量、茎鞘干质量、穗干质量、根系干质量、地上部干质量、生物总量和剑叶光合速率与产量之间均呈显著或极显著正相关。试验结果说明,在120~180 kg/hm2,增加施氮量有利于双季稻取得高产;增加施氮量可促进分蘖盛期干物质的积累,但过量施氮会影响生长后期干物质的积累;齐穗后较大的生物总量和较高的剑叶光合速率有利于双季稻取得高产。     

毛细管电子捕获气相色谱法同时测定水产品中氯霉素、甲砜霉素和氟甲砜霉素残留

采用乙酸乙酯提取目标物,正己烷脱脂,微波辅助衍生化,建立了能同时测定水产品中氯霉素、甲砜霉素和氟甲砜霉素残留量的毛细管电子捕获气相色谱法（GC—ECD）。加标回收实验结果显示,氯霉素在1．0-200．0μg／L范围内、甲砜霉素和氟甲砜霉素在5．0～200．0μg/L范围内成良好的线性,相关系数均大于0．996;氯霉素、甲砜霉素和氟甲砜霉素的检出限分别为0．1、0．2和0．2μg／kg,回收率在79．2％-88．0％之间,相对标准偏差在2．0％-4．1％之间。表明该方法定性定量准确、检出限低、重现性好、省时省力,可以满足水产品中3种氯霉素类药物的多残留安全检测。     

梅里雪山国家公园生物多样性保护规划方法研究

滇西北是中国生物多样性最丰富的地区之一,自2004起,有关部门就开始运用国家公园管理模式对该地区生物多样性进行保护.文章以梅里雪山国家公园为研究对象,对其生物多样性保护的规划方法进行研究.认为保护行动规划方法中的保护对象的确定、威胁因子的分析、制定并实施保护策略、成效评估4个关键步骤是实现国家公园生物多样性保护的有效逻辑方法.     

氯霉素间接竞争ELISA(ciELISA)检测方法的建立

以人工合成的氯霉素－牛血清白蛋白（ＣＡＰ－ＢＳＡ）为包被抗原,氯霉素（Ｃｈｌｏｒａｍｐｈｅｎｉｃｏｌ,ＣＡＰ）为竞争的半抗原,两者与一定量的抗ＣＡＰ单抗（ＣＡＰ－ＭｃＡｂ）反应。实验结果表明,理想的包被抗原浓度为１．２５μｇ／ｍｌ,抗ＣＡＰ－ＭｃＡｂ工作浓度为１：１２０００,酶标二抗工作浓度为 １： ５０００,可测最适范围为 １ｎｇ／ｍｌ－１００ｎｇ／ｍｌ,最小检测量为０．１ｎｇ／ｍｌ,批内和批间变异系数分别为３． ６２％和 ５． １９％。得到回归方程 ｙ ＝１．２７３０－ ０．６７４５ｘ（ｒ２＝ ０． ９７７９）和标准曲线,从而建立了快速定量测定 ＣＡＰ含量的间接竞争酶联免疫吸附试验（ＥＬＩＳＡ）。整个测定时间为６小时。     

Links between riparian landcover,instream environment and fish assemblages in headwater streams of south‐eastern Brazil

We hypothesised and tested a hierarchical organisation model where riparian landcover would influence bank composition and light availability, which in turn would influence instream environments and control fish assemblages. The study was conducted during the dry season in 11 headwater tributaries of the Sorocaba River in the upper Paraná River Basin, south‐eastern Brazil. We focused on seven environmental factors each represented by one or multiple environmental variables and seven fish functional traits each represented by two or more classes. Multivariate direct gradient analyses suggested that riparian zone landcover can be considered a higher level causal factor in a network of relations that control instream characteristics and fish assemblages. Our results provide a framework for a hierarchical conceptual model that identifies singular and collective influences of variables from different scales on each other and ultimately on different aspects related to stream fish functional composition. This conceptual model is focused on the relationships between riparian landcover and instream variables as causal factors on the organisation of stream fish assemblages. Our results can also be viewed as a model for headwater stream management in that landcover can be manipulated to influence factors such as bank composition, substrates and water quality, whereas fish assemblage composition can be used as indicators to monitor the success of such efforts.     

Soil Conservation in Europe: Wish or Reality?

Nearly all of Europe is affected by soil erosion. A major policy response is required to reverse the impacts of erosion in degraded areas, particularly in light of the current climate change and water crisis. Soil loss occurs not because of any lack of knowledge on how to protect soils, but a lack in policy governance. The average rate of soil loss by sheet and rill erosion in Europe is 2·46 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. To mitigate the impacts of soil erosion, the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy has introduced conservation measures which reduce soil loss by water erosion by 20% in arable lands. Further economic and political action should rebrand the value of soil as part of ecosystem services, increase the income of rural land owners, involve young farmers and organize regional services for licensing land use changes. In a changing World of 9 billion people with the challenge of climate change, water scarcity and depletion of soil fertility, the agriculture economy should evolve taking into account environmental and ecological aspects. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Land Degradation & Development Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Analysis and simulation of land-use change in the central Arizona – Phoenix region,USA

To understand how urbanization has transformed the desert landscape in the central Arizona – Phoenix region of the United States, we conducted a series of spatial analyses of the land-use pattern from 1912–1995. The results of the spatial analysis show that the extent of urban area has increased exponentially for the past 83 years, and this urban expansion is correlated with the increase in population size for the same period of time. The accelerating urbanization process has increased the degree of fragmentation and structural complexity of the desert landscape. To simulate land-use change we developed a Markov-cellular automata model. Model parameters and neighborhood rules were obtained both empirically and with a modified genetic algorithm. Land-use maps for 1975 and 1995 were used to implement the model at two distinct spatial scales with a time step of one year. Model performance was evaluated using Monte-Carlo confidence interval estimation for selected landscape pattern indices. The coarse-scale model simulated the statistical patterns of the landscape at a higher accuracy than the fine-scale model. The empirically derived parameter set poorly simulated land-use change as compared to the optimized parameter set. In summary, our results showed that landscape pattern metrics (patch density, edge density, fractal dimension, contagion) together were able to effectively capture the trend in land-use associated with urbanization for this region. The Markov-cellular automata parameterized by a modified genetic algorithm reasonably replicated the change in land-use pattern.