中国北方沙尘天气原因探讨

我国是沙尘暴易发的国家,进入20世纪90年代以来,强沙尘暴有频率增加、强度加大、范围扩展、危害程度加剧的趋势。沙尘暴的发生危害范围亦逐渐从西北干旱经济落后区扩展到经济发达的北京、天津及华北平原区,近年来的沙尘暴造成了社会经济和人民生命财产的重大损失。受大气环流场和季风气候类型影响,中国冬、春盛吹西北风,强劲而干燥。发生沙尘暴的天数与大风日数和地面热力稳定程度相关,3-5月中国西北内陆地表增温大,是风力场和热力场极不稳定的季节,地表气候容易发生蠕动,沙尘暴便由此启动并易发。除自然要素外,不合理的人类活动也将诱发沙尘暴天气的发生,有些情况下还起到比自然要素更重要的作用。从生态地理区域的角度看,沙尘暴的源地在干旱和半干旱地区,由于大气环流的作用,影响到下风向的半湿润甚至湿润地区。无论何地干旱、半干旱地区都将存在沙尘暴发生的自然条件,而其下风向必将受到不同程度的影响,只是因为中国的季风气候,决定西北干旱、半干旱地区发生的沙尘暴必然影响东南部地区。在现有的科学技术条件下,人类所能做的就是调节自身的行为。因此,在沙尘暴源地实施生态建设是减缓沙尘暴发生的最重要措施,也是消除东部城市沙尘天气的主要途径。根据生态地理区域的特征,沙尘暴源地的干旱区、半干?     

沙尘物质的来源与防治途径

本文分析了沙尘暴形成的自然过程和危害特征,并探讨了内蒙古沙源区土壤颗粒物质的含量,指出沙尘暴的沙尘来源主要是退化草原、活化的沙地和裸露坡耕地等。同时根据风沙流运移规律及其和土壤颗粒的关系,提出了防治沙尘暴的关键技术原理,并探讨了有效控制沙尘暴的技术途径。     

内蒙古沙尘暴的成因、趋势及其预报

本文利用内蒙古1961～2001年的天气气候资料,对内蒙古中西部地区沙尘暴作了统计分析,阐述了沙尘暴的危害并给出了沙尘暴的基本定义。分析了引起沙尘暴的天气和气候因子的变化趋势,研究了他们对沙尘暴的影响,结果表明近40年内蒙古的沙尘暴总体呈减少趋势,但从1998年开始有所增加;沙尘暴的空间分布以阿拉善盟偏北地区为最高发区;降水、气温、大风、寒潮、北半球极涡、西太平洋副热带高压、亚洲西风环流、东亚大槽和南方涛动等天气和气候因素均对该地区沙尘暴的发生有不同程度的影响。     

Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes

The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system.     

田径内涵嬗变与项目沿革新探索

对奥运会田径比赛项目、奥运历史上曾举行过的项目、田径技术、场地、规则、比赛成绩等方面的演变与发展进行新探索。     

关于地理空间数据整合与持续高效更新存在的问题分析

文章针对当前地理空间数据整合与持续高效更新所存在的问题,在地理空间数据更新中引入了“数据同化”这一思想和概念,对持续高效更新存在的问题及“地理空间数据同化”的涵义和关键技术进行了论述.     

Strong functional stability of soil microbial communities under semiarid Mediterranean conditions and subjected to long-term shifts in baseline precipitation

We investigated the effect of soil microclimate on the structure and functioning of soil microbial communities in a Mediterranean Holm-oak forest subjected to 10 years of partial rain exclusion manipulations, simulating average drought conditions expected in Mediterranean areas for the following decades. We applied a high throughput DNA pyrosequencing technique coupled to parallel measurements of microbial respiration (R_H) and temperature sensitivity of microbial respiration (Q₁₀). Some consistent changes in the structure of bacterial communities suggest a slow process of community shifts parallel to the trend towards oligotrophy in response to long-term droughts. However, the structure of bacterial communities was mainly determined by short-term environmental fluctuations associated with sampling date (winter, spring and summer) rather than long-term (10 years) shifts in baseline precipitation. Moreover, long-term drought did not exert any chronic effect on the functioning of soil microbial communities (R_H and Q₁₀), emphasizing the functional stability of these communities to this long-term but mild shifts in water availability. We hypothesize that the particular conditions of the Mediterranean climate with strong seasonal shifts in both temperature and soil water availability but also characterized by very extreme environmental conditions during summer, was acting as a strong force in community assembling, selecting phenotypes adapted to the semiarid conditions characterizing Mediterranean ecosystems. Relations of climate with the phylogenetic structure and overall diversity of the communities as well as the distribution of the individual responses of different lineages (genera) to climate confirmed our hypotheses, evidencing communities dominated by thermotolerant and drought-tolerant phenotypes.     

Cultivation Influences on Soil Organic Carbon Associated with Texture in Seasonally Frozen Zones

[Objective] This study aimed to examine indicative roles of texture representing soil organic carbon presence and variability subsequent to cultivation under cold temperate climates with seasonal freeze-thaw events.[Method] Three chronosequences were selected for paired comparisons.Soil samples were collected at six depths with a 10 cm increment.Analysis of variance with general linear model and regression was performed for statistical analysis.[Result] In seasonally frozen soils where fragmentation of macroaggregates was stimulated,soil organic carbon level was positively associated with clay ＋ silt proportion due to a wider textural range,better than sole clay content.Exponential function better fitted the experimental data to present progressively increased effectiveness of clay ＋ silt content in maintaining carbon.Clay content explained 12％-41％ and 14％-43％ of variation via linear and exponential functions,respectively.Accordingly,clay ＋ silt content explained 47％-65％ and 46％-70％.[Conclusion] Texture reflected soil organic carbon occurrence as consequences of reclamation.For seasonally frozen soils with wider textural ranges,it is robust to adapt clay ＋ silt content as dependent variable and exponential function.The generated algorithms provided an available pathway to estimate soil organic carbon losses following cultivation and to evaluate soil fertility.     

基于信息抽取的食品安全事件自动问答系统方法研究

针对从海量食品安全事件新闻报道中很难抽取出所需答案的问题,以食品安全事件语料库为研究对象,提出了一种基于信息抽取技术的自动问答系统。首先,利用深度学习模型TextCNN对用户输入的问题进行分类,得到其所属类型。其次,对于输入问题,借助Lucene搜索引擎找到其最佳匹配文档。再次,根据输入问题的类型,从食品安全事件数据库（采用信息抽取技术自动提取的一个结构化数据库）中筛选出该文档所包含的答案候选句集合。最后,利用深度学习模型Bi LSTM及基于答案候选句上下文的特征提取方法构建一个答案抽取模型,该模型能从给定的答案候选句集合中提取出最终答案。为检查基于食品安全事件数据库的答案候选句筛选方式及基于答案候选句上下文的特征提取方式对整个自动问答系统性能的影响,进行了多种比较实验,结果表明含有基于食品安全事件数据库的答案候选句筛选方式和基于答案候选句上下文的特征提取方式的问答系统表现最佳,其回答准确率达到44%。这相比于传统的问答系统,具有明显的优势。     

近55年来河西地区干旱时空演变特征及其与ENSO事件的关系

根据河西地区14个气象站点1961-2015年的逐月气象观测资料,基于SPEI指数采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、反距离加权插值(IDW)等方法分析了近55年来河西地区年代际、四季干旱及空间变化特征,并探讨了ENSO 事件与该区干旱的关系。结果表明：在年代际变化上,自20世纪90年代以来河西地区干旱次数增多、干旱程度加重。季节时间变化上,河西地区春、夏、秋季均呈干旱化趋势,春季干旱化趋势最为突出,夏季次之,冬季略呈变湿趋势。空间变化上,整个河西地区春季均呈干旱化趋势,而且大部分地区的春旱趋势极为显著,其中春旱趋势最显著的地方是金塔;冬季整个研究区趋于湿润化。各季节干旱高频区分别集中在：春季在金塔、民勤地区,夏季在河西西北部,秋季在河西中东部及西部的安西—玉门一线,冬季在101°E以西的河西地区。河西地区秋季SPEI与SSTA指数的相关性最为显著,春季次之,夏季最弱。ENSO事件发生强度与河西地区SPEI影响因子的多项式拟合关系表明,ENSO事件强度对温度的影响高于降水;其中在ENSO暖事件(厄尔尼诺事件)发生年份,气温有明显的上升趋势;在ENSO冷事件(拉尼娜事件)发生年份,少数年份降水有所增加,对气温的影响较弱。