A Bayesian approach to the accuracy of clinical observations

The accuracy of clinical observations was estimated using Bayesian latent-class models with two or more independent tests. Four veterinarians carried out systematic independent clinical examinations on 155 pigs in three herds. Based on the results of binary recordings of clinical observations on dullness, poor body condition (PBC), skin lesions, lameness, respiratory disease, and diarrhea, a latent disease state for each clinical disease was estimated using Gibbs sampling.

The accuracy of the clinical observations differed for the four observers and for different clinical signs. Population parameters were estimated from a Bayesian hierarchical model, and the accuracy of a random observer was calculated. We concluded that the accuracy of the veterinarians in this study substantiated the need to pursue more-precise definitions of the clinical findings and that larger sample sizes would be needed to provide reasonable variance estimates. Finally, we concluded that the uncertainty in the clinical decision-making process (starting with the clinical examination) needs to be represented fully.     

浙江凤阳山－百山祖自然保护区综合考察报告

１９８０年以来，对浙江凤阳山－百山祖自然保护区先后３次考察，揭示了这一自然保护区生物资源一些特点，即生物群落地带的特殊性、生物区系成分的古老性、生物物种的多样性、珍稀动植物种类的丰富、森林植被垂直分布系列的完整，本区又是一些植物的分化和变异中心，是一处十分难得的森林生态和生物多样性自然保护区，同时又介绍了保护区建立前后所开展的一些科研活动。     

Poisoning in ostriches following ingestion of toxic plants - field observations

Data from post-mortem and field studies were obtained that discussed poisoning in ostriches following ingestion of toxic plants. From the notes, all plants studied caused death in ostriches and there was systemic organ damage. Poisoning from Sarcostemma viminale (Melktou) resulted in beak patting, muscular tremors and head flopping, followed by collapse and violent kicking before death. Ingestion of Combretum oatesii (Red wings) seeds from plants in free grazing pastures resulted in vomiting, restlessness, eyelid flicking, collapse and kicking movements. Dichapetalum cymosum (Gifblaar) killed an ostrich after episodes of shaking legs, rapid respiration and bradycardia and hyperaemia of the lungs, liver and kidneys. Poisoning from Senecio sceleratus (Ragwort) caused skin haemorrhages and bleeding in tracheal mucous membranes, the pericardium, diaphragm and interperitoneal membrane. Consumption of drupes from Melia azedarach (Syringa berry) caused muscle tremors, kicking movements and respiratory distress. Lantana camara (Cherry pie) poisoning resulted in extremely inflamed eyes with copious yellow exudates extending down their beaks and onto their necks. Bentonite was administered by gavage at a dose of 5 g/kg. Poisoning in these cases is usually associated with the farmer allowing his/her birds to roam free-range in paddocks in which toxic plants are growing. Toxic plants should be removed from grass cut for hay. The author is willing to send photographs of all poisonous plants if requested by a reader.     

基于探空资料的城市化对石家庄市气温变化的影响

[目的]研究城市化对石家庄市气温变化的影响,以及利用探空资料进行城市化影响研究的适用性。[方法]基于1981~2010年的逐月探空资料和地面观测资料,研究城市化对石家庄市气温变化影响的性质和程度。[结果]1981~2010年,石家庄市增温趋势达到0.59℃/10a,探空资料增温趋势为0.40℃/10a;其中冬季增温最为明显;城市热岛效应导致石家庄气温增温幅度为0.19℃/10a;夏秋两季城市热岛对季节的增温作用较大;探空资料分离出的城市热岛增温贡献率为32.22%。[结论]城市化对石家庄市气温增暖贡献较为显著。     

气象观测中存在的问题及对报表审核的思考

通过对广东省连南县气象局近几年地面气象观测及报表审核工作面临的许多新问题,为提高广东省地面观测质量,进一步加强与台站观测人员的交流,报表审核中遇到的一些典型问题,如:人工站数据误读,自动站J文件中数据跳跃,强降水时深层地温突变,天气现象记录,湿度查算等一些问题给以总结,以供其他台站互相交流学习。     

海柏和扇形海柏的形态观察及孢子萌发类型的比较

对我国大连沿海地区的海柏(Polyopes polyideoides)和扇形海柏(Polyopes affinis)进行了外部形态和孢子萌发类型的比较研究,其结果如下:(1)海柏藻体呈亚二叉分枝,上部叉分的距离较近,下部枝距较远,藻体上有轻微缢缩并偶有小育枝;扇形海柏藻体数回叉状扇形分枝,分枝处基部不缢缩或略微缢缩,下部为圆柱形,往上分枝轻度或中度扁压,藻体上多有小育枝。(2)海柏与扇形海柏孢子萌发类型均属于间接盘状型。海柏孢子萌发时,先形成基细胞,再分裂形成盘状体,不出现丝状体。扇形海柏孢子萌发时,形成基细胞后,继续分裂出现两种情况:第一种情况由基细胞逐渐延长先形成丝状体,末端细胞不断分裂,总体积膨大,丝状体逐渐变短消失,最后形成盘状体;第二种情况是在基细胞形成后,原位呈十字型分裂,形成盘状体,无丝状体形成。海柏在辽宁沿海为首次发现,是该领域的一新纪录种。     

猪附红细胞体病的病理学观察

用常规病理学方法，对5头患有附红细胞体病的仔猪进行病理解剖学和病理组织学观察，病理解剖学主要变化是血液稀薄，凝固不良，全身皮肤及粘膜，脂肪和脏器黄染，肝，脾肿大，病理组织学主要变化是肝，脾，肾等器官有含铁血黄素沉积和广泛的器官损害。     

区域气象观测资料Flash填图

利用Flash体积小、效率高、跨平台和动作脚本编程特性,结合Asp强大的库数据处理能力,开发区域气象资料填图WEB显示系统。在Flash系统下,将底图转换为矢量图,制作文本填图元件和风矢元件,根据loadVariables函数获取的Asp数据,设置元件属性,旋转风矢,极大程度地提高执行速度。通过cookie传递数据检索时间,实现时间前后翻页检索,WEB页面中的观测资料填图可以放大漫游。     

GENESIS诱导小麦雄性不育的形态学和细胞学观察

从形态学和细胞学方面,观察了GENESIS诱导小麦雄性不育的过程.结果表明,喷药处理后,抽穗后穗部为浅绿色,小穗排列松散,麦穗呈"爆裂状"且透亮,雄蕊退化;Feek'sstage8.0时期喷施,大部分表现为无花粉型,药室内花粉母细胞解体,只留下空腔;Feek'sstage9.0时期喷施大多为花粉败育型,败育花粉中大都只发育到单核期,部分发育到二核期,小孢子畸形,细胞核解体,细胞质稀薄,也发现有多核花粉粒存在;喷施时期越早,败育得越彻底,在3kg·hm-2剂量处理下,败育发生较为彻底,而且对花粉囊壁影响较小.     

家蝇幼虫消化道的解剖和镉中毒时的症状观察

在Ｎｉｋｏｎ实体显微镜下对家蝇幼虫的消化道进行了解剖,观察到家蝇幼虫的消化道分为３个部分：前肠,中肠,后肠,其中以中肠最长,最粗,前胃变成黄褐色,中毒较深的甚至变成深褐色。中肠显著缩甜美,不再透明,且部分黄化,马氏管局部由原来的淡黄色变为深黄褐色。