人工神经网络在电力系统短期负荷预测中的应用

根据电力系统短期负荷变化的特性，提出BP模型在实际负荷预测应用中的方法和步骤．对BP网络结构、样本空间、收敛性等作了有针对性的研究．结果表明：多层神经网络应用于电力系统短期负荷预测是可行和有效的．其预报结果比传统的负荷预测方法更准确、经济、效果更好．     

虚拟仪器技术及其在距离保护中的

介绍了虚拟仪器的发展过程以及虚拟仪器的软件与硬件的基本构成原理,设计了一套虚拟仪器系统，并在此基础上对距离保护进行了仿真实验。认为虚拟仪器在电力系统具有广泛的应用前景，是今后一段时间的发展方向。     

植物活体水分探测仪的研制及测试初报

利用NIM插件探测器及金硅面垒探头组装了植物活体水分探测仪;筛选并分析了仪器的最佳工作条件;检测了春小麦、玉米、苜蓿、豌豆、红豆草叶片鲜重的变化。结果表明;叶片水分随时间损失大的,其抗旱性差。叶片保水的秩序为:红豆草、豌豆>苜蓿>春小麦>玉米。     

哈达门国家森林公园游客量动态预测

根据哈达门国家森林公园的票房数据，应用灰色系统理论建立旅游量灰色动态模型。基此，对哈园游客量进行了中短期预测，其预测检验精度为９３．７２。旨在对该园建设、管理等项决策提供科学依据。     

农作物抗旱性鉴定仪的研制和应用

依据陈毓荃等首次提出的连续升温电导法，研制了ＮＫＪ－１型农作物抗旱性鉴定仪，对１４种小麦抗旱性的鉴定结果与田间观测结果一致，也适于果树抗热性鉴定。     

Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.     

Survey of equine castration techniques,preferences and outcomes among Australian veterinarians

Objectives

(1) To collect the perceptions of veterinarians performing equine castrations in Australia on techniques, preferences and outcomes, (2) to investigate veterinarian use and experience with the Henderson castrating instrument and (3) to investigate potential associations between demographics, castration methods and techniques, and complications.

Design

Online survey of members of the Australian Veterinary Association’s Special Interest Group, Equine Veterinarians Australia (EVA).

Methods

A link to the survey was included in the EVA e‐newsletter and practices on the EVA website were contacted by telephone and follow‐up email. Fisher’s exact test was used to determine associations between ligation and complications. A generalised linear model with a negative binomial family was used to determine associations between count response variables and categorical independent variables.

Results

Responses were obtained from 138 veterinarians (response rate, 13.1%) who performed 5330 castrations over 12 months. Castrations were most commonly performed in the field, on anaesthetised horses, using emasculators, via an open approach and without ligation of the spermatic cord. Estimated complications after use of emasculators were swelling (25%), haemorrhage (5%) and infection (5%). The Henderson instrument was used by approximately 10% of respondents and its use for castration was associated with fewer reports of postoperative swelling compared with emasculators (P = 0.002). Rates of evisceration with the Henderson and emasculator methods were comparable (0.43% and 0.9%, respectively).

Conclusion

Castration preferences varied widely among survey participants. Reported complication types and rates were comparable to those reported previously in other countries. Perceptions that the Henderson instrument was associated with less swelling should be investigated further via a prospective controlled investigation.     

单站式大气电场仪探测距离分析

通过对电子设备防雷需求的计算,确定大气电场仪应有的探测距离;通过对几种情况下大气电场的分析、计算,结合大气电场仪的探测原理及探测公式,确定大气电场仪的探测距离,并对其进行分析.通过对大气电场仪探测距离和电子设备防雷需求的预警距离对比,得出单站式大气电场仪应根据使用者的需求,降低探测距离,提高探测准确度.     

Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes

The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system.     

基于Geomagic Studio 12.0的采棉部件设计

为缩短产品研制周期、增强企业竞争能力,逆向工程技术也正逐步从其他产品设计制造业领域引入到我国农业机械领域。以统收式采棉机的采摘部件梳齿为测绘对象,通过逆向工程技术,采用青岛雷顿数控设备有限公司生产的先进的NC(865)型三坐标测量仪进行扫描与测绘,获取了梳齿的点云数据,然后对其进行预处理、多边形阶段处理、参数化处理,最终运用SolidWorks软件绘制出三维模型,完成了梳齿部件的逆向设计。通过实例运用,证实了逆向工程技术在农业机械研究领域的可行性,其研究结果将对我国农业机械化的发展起到积极的推动作用。