联合分析法在混合动力汽车产品定位中的应用研究

从消费者购买决策角度出发,利用联合分析法,构建我国市场A级混合动力汽车属性与水平模型,分析消费者购买混合动力汽车时赋予不同属性的相时重要性及属性水平的效用值,并模拟产品组合市场占有率情况,从而为混合动力汽车产品定位提供依据.     

番茄绿果与橙果间果实颜色及主要色素含量的遗传研究

对番茄组合绿樱(绿果)×金珠1号(橙果)的6个世代遗传群体(P1、P2、F1、BC1、BC2和F2)进行果色性状、番茄红素含量、叶绿素含量和胡萝卜素含量等的遗传规律分析。结果表明:正反交F1的果色性状无明显差异,而色素含量存在显著差异;说明番茄果色性状受核基因控制,而色素含量遗传除受核基因控制外还可能存在胞质效应。采用多世代联合分析法的分析结果表明,番茄绿果与橙果间的果色性状符合2对加性主基因+加性-显性多基因(MX2-A-AD)遗传模型,其BC1、BC2和F2主基因遗传率分别为73.42%、78.25%和61.41%,多基因遗传率分别为22.87%、15.35%和34.94%,即果色性状遗传的主基因遗传力较强;叶绿素含量符合1对负向显性主基因+加性-显性多基因(MX1-AEND-AD)遗传模型,其BC1、BC2和F2主基因遗传率分别为0、1.73%和0.65%,多基因遗传率分别为45.47%、0和37.82%,即主基因遗传力在BC2群体中最高,多基因遗传力在BC1群体中最高;番茄红素含量与胡萝卜素含量均符合2对加性-显性-上位性主基因+加性-显性多基因(MX2-ADI-AD)遗传模型,其BC1、BC2和F2主基因遗传率分别为75.74%、1.79%、84.26%和61.53%、87.21%、81.05%,多基因遗传率分别为20.32%、74.12%、12.68%和0.68%、0、0,表明番茄红素含量和胡萝卜素含量的主基因遗传力较强。     

酸奶消费者购买行为的实证研究

以在校大学生问卷调查为例,应用联合分析法,运用极差分析、方差分析的统计学方法得出结论:价格是影响消费者酸奶购买行为的最显著因素;品牌和包装类型对酸奶购买的影响不相上下;净含量和保质期对消费者酸奶购买影响较小。乳品企业应针对不同的消费群体开发相应的产品、制定不同的市场营销策略。     

Adaptive conjoint analysis to determine perceived risk factors of farmers, veterinarians and AI technicians for introduction of BHV1 to dairy farms

A study was carried out to determine the possibility of a more-closed farming system for (Dutch) dairy farms. The objective of the study was to provide effective and economically profitable management advice for improving the animal-health status of farms. Management measures will only be successfully applied if supported by farmers and their advisors (such as veterinarians). Therefore, the perception of farmers and advisors of the importance of various risk factors for the introduction of diseases to a farm was determined by using bovine herpes virus type 1 (BHV1) as an example.

As part of the study, an evening-long workshop was organized and run thrice. In total, 49 farmers, veterinarians and AI technicians participated in these workshops. The computerized questionnaire technique was based on adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA). ACA has the advantage that participants can work with a large number of risk factors in a relatively short period of time. Another advantage of ACA (compared with standard questionnaires) is that the answers from each participant can be checked with regard to consistency with respect to the importance assigned to them. Data from participants with inconsistent responses can be excluded from further analyses. The results of the ACA interview were compared with the risk factors reported in the literature as being associated with BHV1 status (e.g. purchase of cattle, participation in cattle shows) and with farmers' actual management to prevent the introduction of diseases.

The workshop participants were all operating in the dairy sector and they seemed well aware of the risk of direct animal contacts for the introduction of BHV1. Farmers thought visitors to be more risky than did AI technicians and (especially) veterinarians. Farmers who purchased cattle or participated in cattle shows were of the opinion that the risks of direct animal contacts were more important than did farmers who were not involved in those practices. Farmers whose farms were BHV1-positive (and participated in cattle shows more often) thought the risk of participation smaller than did farmers with BHV1-negative farms.     

城市居民对有机大米的消费意愿及其影响因素分析

为有机大米产业发展提供决策依据,采用问卷调查结合联合分析法研究城市居民对有机大米的消费意愿及其影响因素。结果表明:消费者的月收入、受教育程度、年龄、性别、婚姻状况、有机大米认知和接受程度、食品安全忧虑程度等与有机大米消费呈正相关,而有机大米价格和消费者年龄与有机大米消费呈负相关。消费者对有机大米的认知程度、认可程度和食品安全忧虑程度是影响有机大米消费需求的显著性因素,而其他因素的影响并不显著。     

Preference and Willingness of Consumers to Pay for Value-added Poultry Products in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

There has been a steady growth in demand for convenience and ready-cooked food has influenced the interest of poultry processors in developing value-added chicken products that meet consumers' demand/choice. A conjoint analysis was done in this study on the survey of 975 chicken consumers in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria, between March and September, 2014 to valuate consumers, preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for various chicken attributed parts, production method, processing method, storage method, the presence of flavor and cooking method. The estimates of consumers, WTP premium prices for various mixtures of value-added characteristics were ascertained. The consumers preferred chicken products refrigerated, from chicken produced under free-range management, chicken breast, chicken product that was addictive and flavor free, which could be oven-heated or pan heated. One half of the entire respondents were willing to pay about 25% more for value-added chicken product over the price for conventional products. On the whole, a premium for value-added chicken products was more likely to be paid for by young consumers, consumers who patronized farmers' markets and preferred free-range or organic chicken products. WTP by consumers was negatively affected by price of products. The poultry industry could utilize combined knowledge of consumers' WTP for value-added chicken product price as a guide of develop innovative value-added chicken products.     

Prioritizing Zoonotic Diseases: Differences in Perspectives Between Human and Animal Health Professionals in North America

Zoonoses pose a significant burden of illness in North America. Zoonoses represent an additional threat to public health because the natural reservoirs are often animals, particularly wildlife, thus eluding control efforts such as quarantine, vaccination and social distancing. As there are limited resources available, it is necessary to prioritize diseases in order to allocate resources to those posing the greatest public health threat. Many studies have attempted to prioritize zoonoses, but challenges exist. This study uses a quantitative approach, conjoint analysis (CA), to overcome some limitations of traditional disease prioritization exercises. We used CA to conduct a zoonoses prioritization study involving a range of human and animal health professionals across North America; these included epidemiologists, public health practitioners, research scientists, physicians, veterinarians, laboratory technicians and nurses. A total of 699 human health professionals (HHP) and 585 animal health professionals (AHP) participated in this study. We used CA to prioritize 62 zoonotic diseases using 21 criteria. Our findings suggest CA can be used to produce reasonable criteria scores for disease prioritization. The fitted models were satisfactory for both groups with a slightly better fit for AHP compared to HHP (84.4% certainty fit versus 83.6%). Human‐related criteria were more influential for HHP in their decision to prioritize zoonoses, while animal‐related criteria were more influential for AHP resulting in different disease priority lists. While the differences were not statistically significant, a difference of one or two ranks could be considered important for some individuals. A potential solution to address the varying opinions is discussed. The scientific framework for disease prioritization presented can be revised on a regular basis by updating disease criteria to reflect diseases as they evolve over time; such a framework is of value allowing diseases of highest impact to be identified routinely for resource allocation.     

Forestry expansion and land-use patterns in the Nelson Region,New Zealand

The expansion of plantation forestry in New Zealandduring the last century has altered the landscape and will continue to do so in the future. The implementation of recent resource management policy, the 1991 Resource Management Act (RMA), will also influence the impact of future plantation expansion on the landscape. It is necessary to analyze current land-use patterns in order to predict effects on future landscapes. This study analyzed the current land-use patterns of the Nelson region by examining the relationship between land-use and site conditions and by characterizing the distribution pattern of land-use depending on distance from the city. The distribution pattern was considered from an economic perspective, based on the Barlowe’s model of land use distribution. The relationship between the current land-use pattern and previous land management policy was also examined using the Land Use Capability. Consequently, in addition to the physical attributes of the land, the influence of land-use management policy was obvious. Thus the RMA will undoubtedly influence land-use changes in the future. It is therefore necessary to understand the factors determining changes in land-use patterns in conjunction with the district plan of the RMA to predict future changes in land-use.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于系统动力学和联合分析法的中国紧凑型电动车市场前景研究

紧凑型电动车市场的发展水平受到产品技术成熟度、基础设施覆盖率、汽油价格波动和消费者产品接受度等多方面因素的影响。本文应用系统动力学的思想,对我国紧凑型电动车市场的发展机制进行了研究,建立了包含上述影响因素系统动力学模型,并进一步借助基于联合分析法的调研,将消费者观点融入其中。在此基础上对其未来10年的市场发展前景进行了预测研究。     

Using a novel survey technique to predict fisheries stakeholders’ support for European eel (Anguilla anguilla L.) conservation programs

A novel variation of a multivariate stated preference method (the maximum difference conjoint approach) is presented in a survey designed to elicit the preferences of a fisheries stakeholder group (recreational anglers fishing in northern Germany) for a portfolio of measures to conserve European eel (Anguilla anguilla L.). Unlike other survey methods, our approach allows the separation of weight (i.e., relative importance of different conservation actions) and scale (i.e., perceived utility associated with different levels within one action) ascribed by stakeholders to conservation measures. The method also allows for trade-off decision-making and joint preference articulation for various conservation actions, and thus provides more realistic decision situations than other survey methods can achieve. We found that anglers prefer tighter than current eel fishing regulations but object to highly restrictive temporal closures. Confronted with an integrated eel conservation program, anglers were overwhelmingly willing to compromise, accepting tighter angling regulations provided that other sources of eel mortality are regulated concomitantly and eel stocking increased. Willingness to accept stricter regulation increased further when the suite of regulations delivered success in terms of increased eel escapement. We encourage the replication of the presented survey technique with other eel stakeholders groups, but also in other conservation contexts, to see if similar patterns of response behaviour emerge that would not have been visible in traditional opinion-type preference assessments. Our results suggest that implementation of eel conservation policies should consider joint regulation of sectors that potentially affect eel stock negatively. Otherwise, management failure and conflict is likely.