防治胡椒瘟病的生物农药和新型低毒化学农药筛选

胡椒瘟病是危害我国胡椒产业的首要病害，目前基本依赖使用化学农药防治。筛选应用生物农药是减少化学农药用量的有效途径。本文采用生长速率法测定胡椒瘟病病原菌对12种生物农药和新型低毒化学农药的敏感性。结果表明：70%烯酰?嘧菌酯WG、木霉菌WP和枯草芽孢杆菌WP对胡椒瘟病病原菌的抑菌效果好且敏感性高，EC50分别为0.211 3、0.49和0.78 μg/mL。     

Bayesian estimation of diagnostic accuracy of a new bead-based antibody detection test to reveal Toxoplasma gondii infections in pig populations

The success of a Toxoplasma gondii surveillance program in European pig production systems depends partly on the quality of the test to detect infection in the population. The test accuracy of a recently developed serological bead-based assay (BBA) was investigated earlier using sera from experimentally infected animals. In this study, the accuracy of the BBA was determined by the use of sera from animals from two field subpopulations. As no T. gondii infection information of these animals was available, test accuracy was determined through a Bayesian approach allowing for conditional dependency between BBA and an ELISA test. The priors for prevalence were based on available information from literature, whereas for specificity vague non-informative priors were used. Priors for sensitivity were based either on available information or specified as non-informative. Posterior estimates for BBA sensitivity and specificity were (mode) 0.855 (Bayesian 95% credibility interval (bCI) 0.702–0.960) and 0.913 (bCI 0.893–0.931), respectively. Comparing the results of BBA and ELISA, sensitivity was higher for the BBA while specificity was higher for ELISA. Alternative priors for the sensitivity affected posterior estimates for sensitivity of both BBA and ELISA, but not for specificity. Because the difference in prevalence between the two subpopulations is small, and the number of infected animals is small as well, the precision of the posterior estimates for sensitivity may be less accurate in comparison to the estimates for specificity. The estimated value for specificity of BBA is at least optimally defined for testing pigs from conventional and organic Dutch farms.     

A global sensitivity analysis of cultivar trait parameters in a sugarcane growth model for contrasting production environments in Queensland,Australia

New sugarcane cultivars are continuously developed to improve sugar industry productivity. Despite this sugarcane crop models such as the ‘Sugar’ module in the Agricultural Productions System sIMulator (APSIM-Sugar) have not been updated to reflect the most recent cultivars. The implications of misrepresenting cultivar parameters in APSIM-Sugar is difficult to judge as little research has been published on the likely values of these parameters and how uncertainty in parameter values may affect model outputs. A global sensitivity analysis can be used to better understand how cultivar parameters influence simulated yields. A Gaussian emulator was used to perform a global sensitivity analysis on simulated biomass and sucrose yield at harvest for two contrasting sugarcane-growing regions in Queensland, Australia. Biomass and sucrose yields were simulated for 42 years to identify inter-annual variability in output sensitivities to 10 parameters that represent physiological traits and can be used to simulated differences between sugarcane cultivars. Parameter main effect (S_i) and total effect (ST_i) sensitivity indices and emulator accuracy were calculated for all year-region-output combinations. When both regions were considered together parameters representing radiation use efficiency (rue), number of green leaves (green_leaf_no) and a conductance surrogate parameter (k_L) were the most influential parameters for simulated biomass in APSIM-Sugar. Simulated sucrose yield was most sensitive to rue, sucrose_fraction (representing the fraction of biomass partitioned as sucrose in the stem) and green_leaf_no. However, climate and soil differences between regions changed the level of influence cultivar parameters had on simulation outputs. Specifically, model outputs were more sensitive to changes in the transp_eff_cf and k_L parameters in the Burdekin region due to lower rainfall and poor simulated soil conditions. Collecting data on influential traits that are relatively simple to measure (e.g. number of green leaves) during cultivar development would greatly contribute to the simulation of new cultivars in crop models. Influential parameters that are difficult to measure directly such as transp_eff_cf and sucrose_fraction are ideal candidates for statistical calibration. Calibrating crop models either through direct observation or statistical calibration would allow crop modellers to better test how new cultivars will perform in a range of production environments.     

基于Downhill-Simplex算法的观测数据与作物生长模型同化方法研究

以夏玉米叶面积指数（LAI）、贮存器官干重（WSO）、地上总干重（TAGP）以及土壤水分含量（SM）为结合点,建立了基于Downhill—Simplex算法的作物生长模型WOFOST同化多种地面观测数据的一般方法或流程：开展观测数据与作物生长模型同化方法的正确性验证→利用Downhill—Simplex算法进行WOFOST模型的敏感性分析一选择敏感参数组合→通过优化效果确定待优化参数→利用新的观测数据对待优化参数进行优化,从而实现了观测数据与作物生长模型的同化,提升了模型的模拟能力。同化过程中遴选出的WOFOST模型的待优化参数主要包括比叶面积、最大CO2同化速率、初始地上部总干物重、根深最大日增量和初始土壤有效水等。     

环介导等温扩增联合横向流动试纸条可视化检测海豚链球菌方法的建立

海豚链球菌(Streptococcus iniae)是一种革兰氏阳性球菌,呈β溶血,可感染多种淡水和海洋鱼类。本研究利用环介导等温扩增技术(loop-mediated isothermal amplification,LAMP)进行核酸扩增,通过横向流动试纸条方法 (lateral flow dipstick,LFD)实现检测,建立了一种可应用于海豚链球菌快速检测的LAMP-LFD技术。该技术以海豚链球菌促旋酶B亚单位(gyrase subunit B,gyr B)基因为检测靶标,设计3对引物进行由生物素标记的LAMP扩增反应,产物经异硫氰酸荧光素(fluorescein isothiocyanate,FITC)标记的探针杂交后,在LFD上完成检测。经优化的核酸扩增最适条件为65℃反应30 min,在此条件下,阳性扩增起始时间与模板浓度之间呈典型的线性相关性。从核酸扩增反应开始到LFD显色,整个检测时程只需40 min左右,比常规PCR技术缩短约2 h。LAMP-LFD能特异性地检出海豚链球菌,针对病原纯培养物的检测灵敏度为8.70×101cfu/m L,是LAMP检测的10倍、常规PCR检测的100倍。以灵敏度浓度(8.70×101cfu/m L)的海豚链球菌基因组DNA为模板进行的LAMP-LFD结果显示该方法具有良好的重复性。针对人工污染花鲈(Lateolabrax japonicus)肝组织的检测灵敏度为4.35×103cfu/m L,同样为常规PCR检测方法的100倍。利用本方法可成功从患病花鲈的组织样品中检测出海豚链球菌,检测结果与常规的细菌分离鉴定方法结果一致。因此,利用LAMP-LFD能特异、准确、高效地检测出海豚链球菌,而且操作简单、费用低、耗时短,有望成为海豚链球菌的常规检测方法。     

黄河流域干旱时空变化特征及其气候要素敏感性分析

利用黄河流域102个气象站点1961-2013年气象数据,选用相对湿润度指数作为干旱指标,探讨年尺度和季节尺度干旱的时空分布特征,并尝试利用偏导数方法计算分析相对湿润度指数的气候要素敏感性及其与气候要素间的相关关系。结果表明：黄河流域上游旱情比中游和下游地区偏重,春夏秋冬各季分别处于中旱、轻旱、中旱和特旱状态,全年尺度处于特旱程度,季节和全年尺度的相对湿润度指数均呈现从西北到东南递增的变化趋势,春季、秋季和全年尺度特旱区域主要分布在陕西、山西、宁夏北部以及内蒙古地区,而气象干旱减缓的站点主要分布在黄河流域上游地区,干旱增强的站点主要分布在黄河流域东南部。相对湿润度指数对太阳辐射和相对湿度呈正向敏感,对温度和风速呈负向敏感。上游和中游地区夏季相对湿润度指数最敏感要素分别为太阳辐射和平均温度,全流域春季、秋季、冬季和全年尺度对相对湿度最敏感。全流域春季和夏季与相对湿润度指数相关性最强的要素均为相对湿度,上游和下游地区秋季的主控要素为太阳辐射,上游、中游和下游地区冬季则分别与温度、风速和风速相关性最强。全年尺度上,上游、中游和下游地区相对湿润度指数变化的主控要素则为太阳辐射、相对湿度和相对湿度。     

四川省潜在蒸散量变化及其气候影响因素分析

潜在蒸散(ET_0)是评价某一地区干旱程度的重要指标,在全球气候变暖趋势下,估计ET_0的变化对科学估算作物需水量,提高水分利用率具有重大意义。本文利用四川省1961-2014年151个气象站的气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith公式分3个区域(四川盆地、攀西地区和川西高原)计算ET_0,并对主要气象因子平均气温、相对湿度、日照时数、平均风速的相对变化率、敏感系数及其对ET_0贡献率的时空变化进行分析。结果表明:四川盆地和川西高原ET_0呈现微弱减少,而攀西地区则呈现一定的增加,其空间分布表现为:攀西地区和川西高原南部年ET_0为高值区,多在1000~1350mm,四川盆地的西南部年ET_0为低值区,多在651~900mm,从西南向东北呈现"高-低-高"趋势。各气象因子对ET_0的影响(对ET_0变化的贡献率)主要取决于敏感性和相对变化率两方面。3个区域ET_0对相对湿度的变化均表现最敏感,其敏感系数分别为-1.13、-1.40、-1.53。在主要气象因子中,在四川盆地和攀西地区,平均风速的多年相对变化率最大(-29.7%、-16.3%),川西高原则为平均温度(40.4%)。进一步分析得出,平均风速在四川盆地和川西高原对ET_0变化的贡献率最大,是主导影响因素,而在攀西地区则为相对湿度。     

中国粮食主产区参考作物蒸散量演变特征与成因分析

在全球变暖的背景下,参考作物蒸散量（reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0）的改变及其空间分布势必对中国粮食主产区农业水资源规划、农业用水管理等产生重要影响。本文将中国粮食主产区划分为温带湿润半湿润地区（I区）、温带干旱半干旱地区（II区）、暖温带半湿润地区（III区）和亚热带湿润地区（IV区）4个子区域,基于粮食主产区265个站点1961-2013年53a气象数据,采用FAO-56 Penman-Monteith公式计算各站点逐日ET0,利用ArcGIS空间插值、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、敏感性分析和贡献率分析等方法,对该区域ET0的时空分布规律及其成因进行分析。结果表明：（1）近53a来,中国粮食主产区年均ET0为878.9mm,整体呈显著下降趋势,速率为0.47mm·a^-1（P＜0.05）,I、II区和IV区年均ET0分别为741.8、1079.8和924.2mm且均有所减小,但变化趋势并不明显,III区年均ET0为940.2mm,呈极显著下降趋势,速率为1.21mm·a^-1（P＜0.01）。（2）全区及I-IV区ET0最敏感气象因子均为相对湿度,其敏感系数分别为-1.060、-1.232、-0.784、-1.114和-1.009。（3）全区及I-III区对ET0变化贡献最大的气象因子为风速,IV区为相对湿度。（4）风速的减小是造成粮食主产区全区及I-III区ET0减小的首要原因,风速减小和日照时数缩短是造成IV区ET0减小的主要原因。     

连续流粮食干燥控制系统变量分析与结构设

针对粮食干燥影响因素多且不确定,以及测量结果存在滞后的问题,提出了连续流粮食干燥被控变量和控制变量的选择方法,通过实验数据对影响粮食干燥过程的各因素及各因素对粮食出口含水率的灵敏度进行了分析.结果表明,影响较大的因素有排粮电动机转速、热风温度、粮食初始含水率,影响较小的因素有环境温度、热风和冷却风风量、粮食初始温度.设计了连续流粮食干燥过程自动控制系统的控制结构,引入微分环节可有效抑制因测量而造成的滞后现象.     

永磁式涡流缓速器制动性能影响因素敏感性分析

在分析永磁式涡流缓速器制动力矩与结构参数关系的基础上,将均匀设计和回归分析方法引入到永磁式涡流缓速器制动性能影响因素敏感性分析中。以某型号的永磁式涡流缓速器为例,建立了制动力矩随转子鼓内半径、永磁体周向长度、气隙宽度、转子鼓轴向宽度和永磁体高度5个结构参数变化的回归模型,重点讨论了结构参数间交互作用以及各结构参数对制动力矩的影响程度,基于均匀试验设计和制动性能敏感性分析的结果,采用全排列法对结构参数进行了优化。