Prediction of pine mistletoe infection using remote sensing imaging: A comparison of the artificial neural network model and logistic regression model

In this study, the prediction of pine mistletoe distribution in Scots pine ecosystems was explored using remote sensing variables to compare the multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) model performances. For this purpose, 109 sample plots were distinguished in pure Scots pine forests (natural) in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. Distinguishing mistletoe-infected stands (69) and uninfected stands (40) was performed with field observations. The variables acquired from Landsat 8 (Level 1) images were used as independent variables for independent-sample t-test, MLP ANN and LR models. Remote sensing variables indicated that mistletoe-infected stands were in drier areas with a lower vegetation-leaf area index. Based on the performance results of both models, the sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy of the MLP ANN model were superior to those of the LR model. The prediction percentages (SEN, SPE, PPV and NPV) of mistletoe-infected stands were better than the prediction percentages of uninfected stands. The prediction accuracies of LR and MLP ANN models were 74.3% and 89.6%, respectively. However, all remote sensing variables were included in the prediction equation of the MLP ANN model, while the thermal infrared 1 (TIRS1) variable was included in the LR model. In the MLP ANN model, the TIRS1 variable also had the highest normalized importance (100%). The area under the curve (AUC) value for identifying the mistletoe-infected stands of Scots pine forests used by the MLP ANN model (0.892 ± 0.034) was higher than in the LR model (0.838 ± 0.039), explaining the more accurate predictions obtained from the MLP ANN model. The MLP ANN model showed much better performance than the LR model. The results of this study are expected to make important contributions to the identification of potential mistletoe-infected areas.     

Growth and yield models for uneven-sized forest stands in Finland

Uneven-sized forestry is gradually gaining popularity and acceptability also in the Nordic countries. This is because of the willingness of the public and some forest owners to avoid clear-fellings and pursue more near-nature forest structures. It has also been realized that the profitability of uneven-sized forestry may be competitive with even-aged forestry. In Finland, management of uneven-sized stands is hampered by the lack of information about the dynamics of such stands, and about the yield and profitability of uneven-sized forestry. This study developed models which allow managers to simulate the growth and yield of uneven-sized stands in Finland, making it possible to predict the yield and analyze the sustainability of different management options. The model set consists of individual-tree diameter increment, height and survival models, and a model for ingrowth. The modeling data consisted of two long-term field experiments of uneven-sized forest management, a set of temporary sample plots measured earlier for growth modeling purposes, and the sample plots of the third National Forest Inventory of Finland. The application area of the models covers all growing sites, all main tree species, and the whole surface area of Finland. According to the models, the sustainable harvest of a fertile (Oxalis-Myrtillus site) uneven-sized Norway spruce forest varies between 5.5 and 7 m³ ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ in Central Finland, depending on the length of the cutting cycle, stand density, and shape of the diameter distribution. It is profitable to harvest large diameter classes more heavily than small ones. Due to the large amount of data the models for diameter increment are highly significant and reliably show the growth level of trees in uneven-sized stands. The weakest models are the ingrowth models, which are based on a clearly smaller data set than the other models.     

Landscape patterns and agriculture: modelling the long-term effects of human practices on Pinus sylvestris spatial dynamics (Causse Mejean, France)

This paper focuses on understanding human impact on landscape. Both ecological and human practices are analysed as interacting processes. An agent-based model integrating biological and historical knowledge is used to analyse the pattern of Scots Pine encroachment in a French Mediterranean upland. In the STIPA model, pine trees are autonomous agents and a cellular automaton simulates land-use. We test the effects of shifting cultivation on tree establishment at the landscape scale. This allows us to understand how agropastoral practices patterned this area from the 17th to 19th century: simulations show the importance of shifting cultivation in limiting woodland progression. Fallow duration linked to environmental heterogeneity is a significant factor for explaining pine dynamics and landscape patterning at the scale of the study region. We put this result in perspective with current rangeland management policies that often consider grazing as the most relevant tool for open landscape maintenance. Our results also show the importance of taking into account time-scale effects when linking landscape patterns to agricultural systems.     

Genetic Variance and Covariance Patterns of Growth and Survival in Northern Pinus sylvestris

The amount of additive genetic and environmental variance for tree height and field survival, and the genetic relationship between the traits were estimated using data from half-sib progenies of Swedish and Finnish Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) plus-trees, assessed in 18 single-tree plot progeny trials. The progeny trials were established in northern Sweden and comprised 9-13-yr-old, Finnish polycross progenies or Swedish open-pollinated progenies. In total across the trials, 71?630 individual trees from 888 families were included in the study. At the overall level, the additive genetic coefficient of variation ranged between 3.1 and 16.3% for height and between 0 and 27.9% for survival, with averages of 9.5% and 14.2%, respectively. Narrow-sense heritabilities were moderate to low, with averages across trials of 0.11 for height and 0.06 for survival. At the within-population level, estimates of genetic correlation between height and survival were mostly large and positive, with an arithmetic mean and standard error across trials of 0.47±0.39.     

Comparative analyses on the litter in Korean pine Mongolian Scots pine and Dahurian Larch plantations

Comparative analyses were conducted on the nutrient element content and returning amount of main fractional compositions of litter in Korean pine (KP), Mongolian Scots pine (MSP) and Dahurian larch (DL) plantations in Laoshan Plantation Experiment Station of Maoershan Experiment Forest Farm of Northeast Forestry University. The results are as follows: (1) The nutrient element content and returning amount in litter varies among different fractional compositions and tree species, the total returning amount of all nutrient elements and the returning amount of K, Ca, Mg, N and P are DL > MSP > KP, the returning amount of Cu is DL > KP > MSP, the returning amount of Fe and Mn are MSP > DL > KP; (2) To KP and DL plantations, the main nutrient element returned is dead needles; dead branches, bark scales and dead cones account for a little proportion; whereas to MSP plantation, besides dead needles, dead branches and bark scales also play an important role in the return of nutrient elements; (3) A little deal of dead leaves can provided a great deal of returning amount of nutrient elements.     

Signals of summer drought in crown condition data from the German Level I network

Crown transparency estimates of Scots pine, Norway spruce, common beech, pedunculate and sessile oak, annually surveyed between 1990 and 2004 within a grid over Germany, provide a suitable response variable to study drought effects on forest trees. Major climatic factors, available on a monthly basis as plot-specifically interpolated values and parameters of site and stand conditions, biotic and other relevant factors were used as predictors in different cross- and length-sectional, and longitudinal models. Stand age is a considerable and most constant driver of crown transparency in all species. Pine, spruce and beech responded—mainly with a delay of 1 year—with some foliar loss in areas where there was a surplus of temperature after the generally hot and dry summer of 2003. Parallel time-series analyses delivered species-specific geographic large-scale patterns with delayed or recent precipitation deficits or temperature surpluses. Even if beech is partly responding in current years with leaf loss towards precipitation surpluses, defoliation is especially high 1 year after hot summers, partly a result of high seed sets after such summers. Crown condition of oak responds in dry and warm areas according to the drought stress hypothesis, however, in cool and wet mountainous ranges oak responds after wet summers with higher defoliation. Longitudinal approaches revealed for all 4-tree species significant relationships between crown condition and deviations from the long-term means of temperature, precipitation but also global radiation and wind speed. Results do not always match the drought stress hypothesis, however, this is not to expect considering the heterogeneous site, stand and climatic conditions across Germany. Complex interactions of climatic and biotic factors also impede simple relationships. Soil-related clusters reveal higher sensitivity of spruce and beech towards climatic drought factors on more acid soils with thin humus layers. Also clusters constructed from plot-specific courses of defoliation reveal groups with rather closer relationships like a group of pine plots in the Oberpfalz, which seems to be especially sensitive to summer drought.     

樟子松针叶床层结构对失水过程中含水率参数的影响

以樟子松针叶床层为例,初步研究可燃物结构床层结构特征对其失水过程中时滞和平衡含水率参数(基于Nelson模型)的影响。通过对15个不同厚度、载量、密度的樟子松可燃物床层的失水过程的分析,估计这些床层的时滞和平衡含水率参数,利用这些参数进行可燃物含水率模拟的平均绝对误差和均方根误差均不超过0.01,所估计的可燃物含水率参数有效。对可燃物床层结构特征对这些参数的影响的研究表明,可燃物床层厚度和载量对时滞和平衡含水率的2个参数a、b具有有显著影响,与时滞和平衡含水率参数b正相关,与平衡含水率参数a负相关,据此建立可燃物含水率参数的预测模型。该模型高估了时滞和平衡含水率参数b,低估了平衡含水率参数a。所得结果还有一些不确定性,特别是可燃物结构特征对平衡含水率参数的影响,需要在更宽的温湿度范围内、针对其他平衡含水率模型和在失水吸水2个过程上进一步研究。     

Seasonal patterns of photochemical capacity and spring phenology reveal genetic differentiation among native Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) populations in Scotland

Environment-driven genetic differentiation among populations is a common feature among forest trees, and an understanding of how populations have adapted to their home site conditions is essential for management and conservation practices. In Scotland, 84 native Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) woodlands are recognised by the Forestry Commission and they occupy highly diverse environments from the maritime west coast to continental sites in eastern Scotland. However, it is not known whether adaptations to local environments along sharp temperature and rainfall gradients have occurred in different populations and as a result, the seed transfer guidelines of the species are based only on data from isozymes and monoterpenes. In this study of an outdoor common-garden trial, we used chlorophyll fluorescence to examine whether seedlings from 32 open-pollinated families and eight populations from sites experiencing contrasting annual temperature regimes differed in their response to variation in natural outdoor temperatures between September 2009 and May 2010. In addition, growth initiation in spring was recorded. Photochemical capacity at photosystem II F_v/F_m showed a distinct seasonal trend and remained at relatively high levels (∼0.7) until November. Following a period of over 2 weeks with temperatures below or close to 0 °C, F_v/F_m started decreasing towards its minimum values recorded in early March when population means varied between 0.35 and 0.45. By early May and along with rising temperatures, photochemical capacity had recovered to the same level as observed in early November. Populations were found to respond differently to the cold period starting in December. The largest drop in photochemical capacity was observed in seedlings from a low-altitude population located in the maritime western Scotland, while in seedlings from higher-altitude locations in the cooler eastern Scotland, the response was smaller. In March, the recovery of photochemical capacity was slowest in seedlings from the mildest and coolest sites. Evidence of adaptive genetic differentiation was also found in spring phenology. Initiation of shoot elongation and needle flush were earlier in families from higher altitudes (cooler areas), but population differences were not significant at the α = 0.05 level. These results suggest that adaptation to the spatially heterogeneous environment in Scotland has taken place in Scots pine and that in order to minimise the risk of planting maladapted seed stock, the patterns of environmental and adaptive genetic variation should be taken into account in the management of genetic resources in this species.     

Temporal Changes in the State of a Pine Stand in a Bog Affected by Air Pollution in Northeast Estonia

We used the needle trace method to investigate changes in the state of a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stand in a bog (Voorepera) in the north-eastern part of Estonia, the most polluted area of the country. Additionally, we chose six sampling sites in other parts of Northeast Estonia (polluted area) and eight sites in southern Estonia (unpolluted area) to compare the state of pine stands in different bogs. During the period of 1964–1997, the radial growth had increased from 0.27 to 2.16 mm yr^–1 and the annual shoot length from 0.10 to 0.28 m in Voorepera. Mean values of the period (1.13 mm yr^–1 and 0.26 m, respectively) were two and four times higher in Voorepera than the average of the other bogs (0.5 mm yr^–1 and 0.06 m, respectively). Maximum needle age fluctuated between three and five growing seasons in Voorepera, the mean (four growing seasons) was similar to that of other bogs (four growing seasons). Except radial growth, which was 0.6 mm yr^–1 in the polluted area and 0.4 mm yr^–1 in the unpolluted area, other indices of trees' health (shoot growth, needle age, nitrogen concentration in needles) and substrate conditions (water pH and N concentration) did not show clear differences between polluted and unpolluted areas. We conclude that air pollution from oil shale industry (thermal power plant and chemical factories) enhances the growth of pines in bogs, which can induce drastic changes in these ecosystems. However, the effect is currently obvious only in the vicinity of pollution sources.     

Timber quality after thinning from above and below in stands of Pinus sylvestris

Timber quality and logging damage after different thinning types in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands were studied in a field experiment in north Sweden. Thinning operations were mechanized and carried out according to normal Swedish practise. The treatments were thinning from below and thinning from above. The quality of the residual stand was evaluated using variables such as diameter of the thickest branch, stem taper, annual ring width, straightness and lean of trees. The only variables showing differences between treatments were lean of tree and stem straightness. No difference in the frequency of trees with logging damage was found. The conclusion of this study is that differences between thinning types in first thinning may be evened out when carried out as in commercial forestry due to extraction of strip road and damaged trees. Consequently, differences in timber quality and logging damage in the residual stand may be small.