基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

白云国家森林公园适老性评价及优化分析

指出了人口老龄化是社会发展的必然趋势,也是当前中国面临的重要社会问题之一,国家和地方各级政府出台了一系列政策,切实保障老年人的权益。森林公园除保护其范围内自然环境和自然资源外,为人们的游憩、疗养、避暑和文化娱乐等提供了良好的环境,逐渐成为老年人休闲娱乐生活的选择。选取浙江丽水白云国家森林公园为研究对象,通过实地踏查、问卷调查和随机访谈等方法,深入调查了老年人个人基本资料及背景、活动状况和使用情况,对3类典型空间和4类景观元素进行了详细地分析,针对不足之处提出了相应的优化建议,以期为相关公园绿地的适老性规划设计提供建设思路。     

基于距离相关系数和KNN回归模型的森林蓄积量估测研究

【目的】探究Landsat8 OLI数据和KNN算法在森林蓄积量估测中的潜力。【方法】以湖南省湘潭县为研究区,采用Landsat8 OLI数据和同时期的二类调查数据,通过距离相关系数筛选特征,分别采用线性回归模型(MLR)、K-近邻模型(KNN)、距离加权KNN模型(DW-KNN)和优化欧式KNN模型(FW-KNN)对森林蓄积量进行估测。使用十折交叉方法进行精度检验,对检验结果进行对比分析。【结果】3种KNN模型的估测结果均高于传统的线性模型,并且在3种KNN模型中,FW-KNN算法效果最好,决定系数达到0.69,为3种模型中最高;3种KNN模型中,本研究优化欧氏距离KNN模型的估测精度最高,其均方根误差为30.3%,相比于传统KNN模型的均方根误差降低了5.1%,相比于DW-KNN模型降低了3.3%。【结论】采用DW-KNN蓄积量估测结果明显优于其他两种模型,说明通过特征与蓄积量的相关性优化样本间的距离是一种可行的KNN优化方法。     

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。     

基于森林健康理念的森林康养产业发展研究

阐述了森林健康理念和森林康养的基本概念,介绍了森林健康理念和森林康养的发展现状,分析了森林健康与森林康养产业之间的关系。结果表明:森林康养产业的理论基础就是基于森林健康理念继承发展来的,必然会促进森林健康产业的发展。运用森林健康理念指导森林康养产业发展是森林康养产业可持续发展的有效途径,森林健康理念在中国会不断完善和发展,也更有利于中国森林康养产业的发展。展望康养产业,会形成一种新的经济形态,成为国民福祉。     

护林防火技术在森林资源保护中的应用

合理运用护林防火技术可以提升森林资源保护工作的整体质量,推动林业不断发展。本文分析了森林火灾发生的原因,总结了护林防火技术,提出了相关应用对策,以期为减少森林火灾的发生和保护森林资源提供参考。     

黔东南州打造全域森林公园的可行性研究

指出了建设全域森林公园是经济和社会发展的必然要求。在对黔东南州发展全域森林公园进行必要性和打造条件后认为:黔东南州在打造全域森林公园方面具有明显的政策优势,有着优良的森林生态环境资源,以及良好的林业产业基础等优势条件。通过不断完善相关的配套服务体系,已具备了打造全域森林公园的可行性。     

粤北地区食用菌产业及其循环经济发展概述

从食用菌种类及其分布、产值、食用菌企业、食用菌产业循环经济发展情况等方面介绍了粤北地区食用菌产业发展现状,总结食用菌产业发展中存在的问题,如菌种问题突出,品牌意识缺乏;食用菌产业标准化落后;产品质量参差不齐,食品质量安全无保障;资源浪费严重;精深加工不足等,并提出相应的对策。     

The microbial diversity and structure in peatland forest in Indonesia

The microbial community structure and function under forest in tropical peatlands are poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the microbial community structure and diversity in natural peat swamp forest soil, disturbed peat soil and mineral soil in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, using 454 pyrosequencing. The results showed that the natural peat soil had the greatest fungal species richness (Chao1), which was significantly (p < .05) larger than that in the other two soils. Community structure of both fungi and bacteria in natural peat soil differed significantly from that in the disturbed peat soil (p = .039 and p = .045, respectively). Ascomycota (40.5%) was the most abundant phylum across the three soils followed by Basidiomycota (18.8%), Zygomycota (<0.1%) and Glomeromycota (<0.1%). The linear discriminant analysis with effect size (LEfSe) showed that Ascomycota (p < .05) and genus Gliocephalotrichum (p < .05) dominated in natural peat soil. Functionally, pathotrophs were more abundant in disturbed peat soil (p < .05). Proteobacteria (43.8%) were the most abundant phylum followed by Acidobacteria (32.6%), Actinobacteria (9.8%), Planctomycetes (1.7%). Methylocystis, Telmatospirillum, Syntrophobacter, Sorangium and Opitutus were the more abundant genera in disturbed peat soil, whereas Nevskia and Schlesneria were more abundant in mineral soil and natural peat soil, respectively. The natural peat forest soil supported a more diverse microbiology; however, the land use of such a soil can change its microbial community structure. The results provide evidence that the disturbance of tropical peat land could lead to the introduction and spread of a large number of fungal diseases     

Measuring trail users’ perception of crowding in a peri-urban nature park: A best-worst scaling experiment

This paper evaluates the perception of crowding, its determinants and relationship with trail users’ experience in a peri-urban nature park. Existing crowding surveys rely heavily on a single-item 9-point crowding scale which was originally developed for backcountry areas. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to test the validity and reliability of this measure in detecting crowding issues and formulating visitor capacity limits. Low validity and reliability raised concerns about the applicability of this scale in similar frontcountry areas. Inability of this simple crowding measure to detect a visitor threshold brings to the fore its another important limitation – ignorance of the complexity of crowding phenomenon. The perception of crowding varies with various social, psychological and situational factors, and a best-worst scaling (BWS) experiment was designed to simultaneously evaluate different aspects of crowding in the Medvednica Nature Park, a peri-urban nature park near Zagreb, Croatia. The findings of BWS experiment revealed that occupancy of mountain huts, number of other hikers on the trail and amount of litter along the trail on average contributed most to the trail users’ sense of crowding. A latent class analysis identified a large heterogeneity in the perception of crowding; while one group of trail users (63%) was more disturbed by the direct social impacts, the others (37%) were more disturbed by the secondary impacts of other visitors, especially by the negative externalities from road traffic in the park. Older visitors had a greater tendency to primarily associate crowding with the environmental conditions. A higher impact of trail use level in the perception of crowding, younger age and more frequent use were associated with a more negative evaluation of crowding. The park management should closely monitor road traffic in the park and visitor activity on highly used trails, especially on those popular among younger trail users.