应用积分GM(1,1)模型进行杉木炭疽病预测预报的研究

以积分生成代替传统的累加生成方法 ,并用双向差分建立积分GM (1,1)灰色预测模型进行杉木炭疽病预测预报的研究 ,结果表明积分GM (1,1)模型能较好地预测杉木炭疽病在三明市的发生     

湖南省粮食产量波动的影响因素分析及预测

旨在维护国家稳定,为预判粮食生产前景、提高粮食生产效率、保障粮食安全提供理论依据。利用湖南省统计数据,运用灰色关联分析法筛选关联性较强的影响因素,并建立GM(1,N)预测模型预测粮食产量。2008—2017年与湖南省粮食产量关联度最大的影响因素是粮食作物播种面积和农业机械总动力;科技因素是影响2008—2017年湖南省粮食产量的主要因素,其次是自然因素,社会因素;2018—2027年湖南省粮食产量有较小波动,且农业机械总动力和财政农业支出影响较大;农业机械总动力在前后十年对粮食产量都有较重要的影响,越来越占据主导地位。粮食产量受国家政策的影响,受农业机械总动力影响最大,维持产量水平需高度重视农业机械化水平,稳步提高粮食作物播种面积。     

基于改进GM(1,N)模型的我国大豆价格影响因素分析及预测研究

大豆是我国重要的粮食作物和油料作物,其价格对于国民经济尤其是农业经济的影响意义深远。大豆价格的稳定对于我国大豆市场的健康发展有着重要的现实意义。在灰色理论的基础上,提出了一种改进GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型,首先运用灰色关联分析法对我国大豆价格的影响因素进行分析,选择主要的影响因素;再将这些影响因素作为模型的相关因素变量,构建GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型。采用2010-2015年的大豆数据进行实证研究,模型选取国内大豆自给量、世界大豆产量、国民消费价格指数、消费者信心指数4个变量作为相关因素变量;模型预测误差为2.10%,预测精度较高,能够较好地掌握大豆价格的变化规律,可以为大豆价格市场预测及国家宏观政策的制定提供理论指导。     

Evaluation the effect of subchronic feeding of transgenic cotton line (CKC1) on the faecal microbiota of albino rabbits

Recent studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the intestinal microbiota and the host health. As such, consumers are increasingly becoming more concerned about the potential effect of certain foods/feeds, particularly of transgenic origin on the gut microbiota. Although the European Food Safety Authority has recommended in their guidelines, to study the effect of transgenic food/feed on host-microbiota, yet, few studies have focused on the evaluation of such effects mainly due to culturing difficulties. Therefore, this study was intended to evaluate the potential adverse effects of transgenic diet consumption on some specific gut microflora (Lactobacillus group, Bifidobacterium genus, Escherichia coli subgroup and Enterococcus genus) of rabbits. A total of forty-eight rabbits were randomly assigned into four groups and fed a diet containing a variable proportion of transgenic cottonseeds at 0, 20, 30 and 40% inclusion level, respectively. Changes in the specific or total faecal bacterial population were monitored at five different experimental stages (i.e. 0, 45, 90, 135 and 180 days) using both the traditional plate count method (TM) and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). No significant differences (p > .05) were observed concerning numbers of specific bacteria or total bacteria between the control and experimental groups, though qPCR showed numerically higher values in terms of 16S rRNA gene copies as compared to the values obtained from TM. However, such numerical differences were biologically insignificant (p > .05). Similarly, no significant variations were noticed in the calculated B/E (log₁₀ copies of Bifidobacterium per g faces/log10 copies of E. coli genome per g faeces) ratios in all the groups. All the ratios were in the range of 1.24 to 1.30 throughout the experiment, indicating a good balance of intestinal microflora and greater resistance to intestinal disorders. It is therefore concluded that feeding transgenic cottonseeds could not adversely affect the gut microflora of rabbits during a long-term study.     

灰色动态模型群法在河流水质预测中的应用初探

在对原始数据序列对数变换的基础上，依据灰色系统理论，构造了由6个GM（1，1）模型组成的灰色动态模型群，并用于淮河干流枯水期氨氮浓度变化趋势预测。研究表明，灰色动态模型群法能够充分利用近期水质资料信息预测水质变化趋势；相对单个GM（1，1）模型，灰色动态模型群法能有效改善随机波动数据序列的拟合效果，提高预测精度。     

GM1 gangliosidosis in a Japanese domestic cat: a new variant identified in Hokkaido,Japan

A male Japanese domestic cat with retarded growth in Hokkaido, Japan, showed progressive motor dysfunction, such as ataxia starting at 3 months of age and tremors, visual disorder and seizure after 4 months of age. Finally, the cat died of neurological deterioration at 9 months of age. Approximately half of the peripheral blood lymphocytes had multiple abnormal vacuoles. Magnetic resonance imaging showed bisymmetrical hyperintensity in the white matter of the parietal and occipital lobes in the forebrain on T2-weighted and fluid-attenuated inversion recovery images, and mild encephalatrophy of the olfactory bulbs and temporal lobes. The activity of lysosomal acid β-galactosidase in leukocytes was negligible, resulting in the biochemical diagnosis of GM1 gangliosidosis. Histologically, swollen neurons characterized by accumulation of pale, slightly granular cytoplasmic materials were observed throughout the central nervous system. Dysmyelination or demyelination and gemistocytic astrocytosis were observed in the white matter. Ultrastructually, membranous cytoplasmic bodies were detected in the lysosomes of neurons. However, genetic analysis did not identify the c.1448G>C mutation, which is the single known mutation of feline GM1 gangliosidosis, suggesting that the cat was affected with a new variant of the feline disease.     

生物炭对黑土区坡耕地土地生产力的可持续效应研究

为探究一次性施加生物炭后对黑土区坡耕地生产力的可持续效应,以东北黑土区3°坡耕地径流小区为研究对象,设置CK(不施用生物炭)和BC(2016年施用75 t/hm~2生物炭,2017、2018年不再施用生物炭)两个处理,于2016—2018年开展了试验研究。结果表明:一次性施入生物炭3年内,土壤容重显著降低(P0.05),第1年降低最明显,为3.87%,孔隙度和总有机碳、铵态N、有效P、速效K含量显著提高(P0.05),p H值则是施炭后前两年显著提高(P_(2016)=0.034、P_(2017)=0.038),分别提高了0.9、0.6,第3年与未施炭处理无显著差异(P_(2018)=0.067);施用生物炭显著提升了土壤的持水能力和保水保土性能,土壤饱和含水率、田间持水率、凋萎系数均显著提高(P0.05),最大增长率分别为5.58%、4.78%、7.29%,年径流深和土壤侵蚀量显著降低(P0.05),年径流深最大减少量为4.92 mm,土壤侵蚀量最大减小率为5.71%;大豆产量和水分利用效率显著提高(P0.05),最大增长率分别为29.01%、16.92%。但生物炭对土地生产力的持续效应逐年减弱,随着生物炭施用年限的延长,BC处理土壤容重线性递增,p H值和总有机碳含量呈幂函数递减,孔隙度和铵态N、有效P、速效K含量线性递减,饱和含水率、田间持水率、凋萎系数线性递减,年径流深和土壤侵蚀量线性递增,大豆产量和水分利用效率分别呈幂函数递减和线性递减。采用改进的TOPSIS(Technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution)模型和GM(1,1)模型测算并预测土地生产力指数,结果显示,BC处理的土地生产力指数均高于CK处理,但其值逐年下降,预计到2021年与CK处理十分接近,表明一次性施用75 t/hm~2生物炭对土地生产力的影响可持续5～6年。研究结果可为东北黑土区生物炭应用提供理论依据。     

澜沧江流域云南段土地利用结构及生态风险演化研究

基于计量地理学理论和ArcGIS技术平台,利用澜沧江云南段区域1990—2020年的土地利用数据,以土地利用动态度、土地生态风险指数等为指标,对土地生态系统进行量化分析,并运用灰色系统理论,分析土地生态风险与土地利用之间的相关性,预测未来15年土地生态风险指数。结果表明,30年间澜沧江流域云南段区域的土地利用动态度和土地生态风险均呈上升趋势,其中,2020年土地利用动态度和土地生态风险指数的变化幅度均表现最为剧烈;澜沧江云南段区域的土地生态风险分布具有区域性,表现为上游、下游为中低生态风险区,中游为较高生态风险区;未来15年澜沧江流域云南段区域的土地生态风险有向更高等级演变的趋势。     

Water management and crop production for food security in China: A review

Food security is a high priority issue on the Chinese political agenda. China’s food security is challenged by several anthropogenic, sociopolitical and policy factors, including: population growth; urbanization and industrialization; land use changes and water scarcity; income growth and nutritional transition; and turbulence in global energy and food markets. Sustained growth in agricultural productivity and stable relations with global food suppliers are the twin anchors of food security. Shortfalls in domestic food production can take their toll on international food markets. Turbulence in global energy markets can affect food prices and supply costs, affecting food security and poverty. Policy safeguards are needed to shield food supply against such forces. China must make unremitting policy responses to address the loss of its fertile land for true progress towards the goal of national food security, by investing in infrastructure such as irrigation, drainage, storage, transport, and agricultural research and institutional reforms such as tenure security and land market liberalization. The links between water and other development-related sectors such as population, energy, food, and environment, and the interactions among them require reckoning, as they together will determine future food security and poverty reduction in China. Climate change is creating a new level of uncertainty in water governance, requiring accelerated research to avoid water-related stresses.     

浙江省严重干旱发生年份的GM（1，1）预测模型

传统灰色GM（1，1）模型对稳定序列的中长期预测效果较好，对变化幅度较大的严重干旱年序列的中长期预测效果较差。本文采用中心逼近式灰色GM（1，1）模型，通过调整m值，使模型精度达到要求，从而建立浙江省严重干旱发生年份的GM（1，1）预测模型。拟合结果表明，该方法对预测浙江省下一个严重干旱发生年有一定的参考价值。