DYNAMIC MODELS OF AQUIFEROUS CONTENT OF LIVING FUELS

RESEARCHSITELivingfue1splayedanimportantroleinheatconcentrationactionorinheatsourceofforestfire.Whenitshumiditydecreasestoacertainlevel,theybecameaheatsourcewhenthelivingcombustibl-eswerecombinedwithfire.Thus,itwasessentialhowtodeterminethemoisturesituationandthefOrestfiredangerdegreetobeforecastedaccurately.Thedynamicmodelspresentedinthispaperwereusefultosolvethisproblem.Everyyear,-therewerealotofforestfires,especiallythefireoccurrenceinDaxinganMountains,inthespringofl987.Itwasveryimpo…     

小麦条锈病流行程度趋势预测专家系统雏型

本文运用知识工程语言 M·1构造了一个用于小麦条锈病流行程度趋势预测的专家系统雏型。专家的知识用产生式规则来表示。知识库中的知识规则可相对独立,便于知识库的扩充和完善。     

GI PiCO2: Tissue Specific Monitoring For Improving Patient Outcomes

Improvements in human patient monitoring despite their development in animals, do not always find their way into veterinary clinical use due to financial constraints. Gastrointestinal intraluminal CO₂ partial pressure (Gip₁CO₂) monitoring, however, is not only proving very beneficial in human trauma and critical patient care but is also very likely to become relatively inexpensive. By providing information on the perfusion adequacy of a high risk, critically important tissue, the GI mucosa, GI P₁CO₂ monitoring offers an easily accesible indicator of the efficacy and adequacy of resuscitative interventions. The potential for decreasing morbidity and mortality is enormous. Therefore, the practicing veterinarian should become familiar with GI P₁CO₂ monitoring theory and technology so he or she can be better prepared to incorporate it into practice when in becomes available.     

应用积分GM(1,1)模型进行杉木炭疽病预测预报的研究

以积分生成代替传统的累加生成方法 ,并用双向差分建立积分GM (1,1)灰色预测模型进行杉木炭疽病预测预报的研究 ,结果表明积分GM (1,1)模型能较好地预测杉木炭疽病在三明市的发生     

江西省古树资源系统研究报告

研究对象只限于散生于江西省山下及村落的30851株古树，不涉及自然保护区、森林公园中的古树。根据古树生长特征，分析其时间分布(古树级及树龄)、空间分布(设区市分布、县域分布)，借助于动态聚类统计分析方法从不同方向进行数量分类，并对数量分类成果用判别分析进行检验。最后对各县域每km^2和每万人负荷古树数进行核算，用数据资抖说明县域保护古树的重要性，增强县域保护古树的责任感。     

5个草地型草地牧草的生长速率和养分动态研究

在牧草生长季节(5~9月)对小哨牧场放牧演替形成的5个草地型草地的牧草进行生长速率、牧草产量及养分的逐月观测,生长速率测定显示,白三叶+东非狼尾草和东非狼尾草+非洲狗尾草两个草地型草地均出现两个生长峰值,分别在6月和9月,其余3个草地型草地只有一个生长高峰。干物质产量和牧草养分测定结果表明,白三叶+东非狼尾草和白三叶+非洲狗尾草+画眉草两种草地型草地表现最好,可以在气候环境条件类似的地区推广种植利用;白三叶+画眉草和白三叶+非洲狗尾草两种草地型草地表现优良,可以在草地改良中,根据当地实际情况选择性地加以种植;东非狼尾草+非洲狗尾草型草地表现较差,不提倡种植。     

Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

新亚欧大陆桥新疆段受损区段的灰色预测

在对新亚欧大陆桥新疆段受损区段、受损长度及受损频率和受损密度详尽分析的基础上，揭示了陆桥新疆段受损区段的时空分布规律。并依据灾害的时序分布特征，运用灰色原理和方法，根据受损区段数确立阈值和相应的年份序列，分别建立GM（1，1）模型，求出年份序列的序号响应式，并对实际值和理论预测结果进行了拟合检验，模型群的原点误差范围为0.198-1.314之间，平均误差为0.823-1.917，并同时预测了陆桥新疆段2001－2005年间可能的受损区段数。     

棉蚜预测预报网络数据库系统的设计与开发

依据棉蚜Aphis gossypii Glover测报的国家行业标准(GB／T15799．1995)及其测报调查的相关信息标准，利用分布式数据库SQL建立了棉蚜预测预报数据库，数据库主要包括早春木本寄主蚜虫调查、早春草本寄主蚜虫调查、苗期棉蚜消长情况调查、苗期棉蚜普查、伏期棉蚜系统调查、伏期棉蚜普查、棉田天敌系统调查、植保站信息和气象信息等12个数据表；利用Internet网络技术和网络开发软件，建立了浏览器／服务器应用程序结构体系，实现了棉蚜虫情数据维护、查询、统计、报表和打印等网络数据库管理和预测数据挖掘功能。棉蚜网络数据库的建立和浏览器／服务器应用程序结构体系的组建和实现，为棉蚜区域化预测预报和管理提供了有力的科学和技术支持。