根据 1999-2008 年东海区渔业资源底拖网大面定点调查获取的小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)渔业生物学资料,利用AIC(Akaike Information Criterion)与BIC(Bayesian Information Criterion),对小黄鱼的Ricker、Beverton-Holt和Cushing繁殖模型进行了拟合优度检验.针对选择的繁殖模型,经单因子相关分析和逐步回归分析,筛选对繁殖模型有重要影响的环境因子,经模型的拟合和检验,确定东海区小黄鱼的适用繁殖模型.结果表明:3种繁殖模型中,Ricker繁殖模型更适合模拟小黄鱼亲体与补充量关系,但吕泗渔场海域3-4月平均海水表温、7月海水表温和5月长江径流量、7-8月长江平均径流量以及当年夏季风速对模型中的补充量有着重要的影响;优化后的Ricker繁殖模型不仅可以提高东海区小黄鱼亲鱼量与补充量的拟合精度,而且可参考该模型修正当年度小黄鱼的资源管理目标,提高资源管理的科学性. 相似文献
A field experiment was carried out in Kolda (southern Senegal) from July 1986 to July 1988. Its goals were to: (1) describe the patterns of mortality of female Guinean goats by age, season and year; (2) assess preventive measures against respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal parasitism in reducing mortality; and (3) estimate the overall impact of these measures on survival to 1 year of age. Preventive measures for respiratory disease included vaccination against peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and pneumonic pasteurellosis (Pasteurella multocida types A and D). Control of gastrointestinal parasites was by deworming does with morantel (7.5 mg kg−1, three times during the rainy season). The effects of vaccines and deworming were tested in a randomised factorial field experiment with villages being the experimental units. A total of 19 villages, 113 goat herds and 1458 goats were included in the study.
Generalised linear models of survival for five cohorts of goats (defined by five different birth seasons) used a binomial assumption for the response distribution and a complementary log–log link. Explanatory variables included age, season, year, vaccination, deworming and their interactions. A complex a priori model was built on the basis of previous epidemiological knowledge; a purposively selected set of simpler models was compared to this full model by the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and derived statistics. Inference on 1-year survival and treatment effects accounted for model-selection uncertainty. It was carried out with a bootstrap procedure and used information from the whole set of selected models.
Large variations in mortality by year and season were observed but no regular seasonal pattern was apparent. Mortality probabilities of kids in dewormed groups decreased quickly after birth, but remained elevated up to 9 months of age in the non-dewormed groups. Deworming lowered the risk of mortality. Vaccination alone was not protective (except during an observed outbreak of PPR). 相似文献
Coastal habitats near urban centres in North Atlantic estuaries often support substantial numbers of wintering waterfowl, but little is known of the effects of landscape setting and urbanisation on habitat use. We conducted surveys of waterfowl at 32 wintering sites in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, to identify characteristics that may influence habitat use. Sites were chosen along a gradient of urbanisation and reflected the dominant habitat types used by waterfowl in the Bay. Mean waterfowl abundance was 206.7 ± 209.5 birds per site, and sites in the inner part of the estuary had higher overall waterfowl abundances (r2 = 0.40, p = 0.021). Species richness ranged from 3.2 to 13.0 and decreased with increasing hunting activity (r2 = 0.36, p = 0.040). Hunting activity and habitat characteristics (e.g., latitude, shoreline configuration, prey density) explained 13-27% of the variation in waterfowl abundance and species richness among sites, but landscape characteristics (e.g., surrounding residential development, vegetated land, or wetland surrounding the sites and the extent of wetland edge) explained an additional 1-26%. The landscape characteristics extent of adjacent residential development and vegetated upland were the most common variables entering into the models; most species were more abundant at sites with more adjacent vegetated upland and less adjacent residential development. Our results suggest that landscape setting may be influencing the distribution of wintering waterfowl, and should be considered when developing strategies for the conservation for these species in urban North Atlantic estuaries. 相似文献
The factors responsible for widespread declines of grassland birds in the United States are not well understood. This study,
conducted in the short-grass prairie of eastern Wyoming, was designed to investigate the relationship between variation in
habitat amount, landscape heterogeneity, prey resources, and spatial variation in grassland bird species richness. We estimated
bird richness over a 5-year period (1994–1998) from 29 Breeding Bird Survey locations. Estimated bird richness was modeled
as a function of landscape structure surrounding survey routes using satellite-based imagery (1996) and grasshopper density
and richness, a potentially important prey of grassland birds. Model specification progressed from simple to complex explanations
for spatial variation in bird richness. An information-theoretic approach was used to rank and select candidate models. Our
best model included measurements of habitat amount, habitat arrangement, landscape matrix, and prey diversity. Grassland bird
richness was positively associated with grassland habitat; was negatively associated with habitat dispersion; positively associated
with edge habitats; negatively associated with landscape matrix attributes that may restrict movement of grassland bird; and
positively related to grasshopper richness. Collectively, 62% of the spatial variation in grassland bird richness was accounted
for by the model (adj-R2 = 0.514). These results suggest that the distribution of grassland bird species is influenced by a complex mixture of factors
that include habitat area affects, landscape pattern and composition, and the availability of prey. 相似文献
The suitability of plantation monocultures for the conservation of forest animals is an issue under continous debate. The adaptability of forest dwellers and the forest management regime seem to play key roles. In this study, I investigated the habitat selection of a generalist bird, the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), within a pine (Pine spp.) monoculture, as well as the importance of the native habitat features within the pine matrix for the species’ conservation. I compared 52 plots with woodpecker presence against 121 plots where the species was absent, as well as 68 nest-trees against 90 random ones. Regression analyses were used to investigate the habitat attributes involved in the habitat selection. Although the great spotted woodpecker is considered a generalist forest dweller, it shows a marked habitat selection. Based on presence/absence records, the woodpecker prefers well-forested patches with high levels of tree diversity and with good coverage of a secondary species such as the strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo). To excavate their nests, woodpeckers select large trees in patches where other trees are also larger, rejecting patches with a high number of small trees. The most striking conclusion from this work is the preference shown for native trees, especially Portuguese oaks (Quercus faginea), as nest-trees. This is noteworthy because native trees are smaller and they are surrounded by smaller trees than pines. These findings support that woodpecker conservation benefits from an increase of habitat heterogeneity, particularly by the retention of native woodland patches within the plantation matrix. 相似文献
The topic of model complexity is fundamental to model developers and model users. In this study, we investigate how over- and under-fitting of a driving function in a simulation model influences the predictive ability of the model. Secondly, we investigate whether model selection approaches succeed in selecting driving functions with the best predictive ability. We address these issues through an example with the forest simulator SORTIE-ND. Utilizing maximum likelihood methods and individual tree growth data we parameterize five growth functions of increasing complexity. We then incorporate each growth function into the simulation model SORTIE-ND and test predicted growth against independent data. Compared to the independent data, the simplest and the most complex growth functions had the poorest predictive ability while functions of intermediate complexity had the best predictive ability. The poor predictive ability of the simplest model is caused by poor approximation of the system while the poor predictive ability of the most complex model is caused by biased parameter estimates. A growth function of intermediate complexity was the most parsimonious model where error due to approximation and error due to estimation were simultaneously minimized. The model selection criteria AIC and BIC were found to select complex functions that were over-fitted according to the independent data comparison. BIC was closer to choosing the model that minimized prediction error than AIC. In this example, BIC is the more appropriate model selection criterion. It is important that both model developers and models users remember that more complex models do not always result in better predictive models. 相似文献
Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) has been extirpated from a large portion of its historical range in the Colorado River basin, USA. A repatriation effort via stocking of juvenile P. lucius in the San Juan River, NM, CO and UT has resulted in limited recruitment of individuals into an adult population. Understanding biotic and abiotic factors that limit their persistence in the Colorado River basin will be a critical step in providing for their recovery. To elucidate potential recruitment barriers in the San Juan River, we assessed relationships between the numbers of two age classes of P. lucius and prey, competitors and predators collected at a 1.6 km reach scale between 2003 and 2012. We used an information theoretical approach to rank candidate models testing the relative importance of these biotic conditions in predicting the spatial distribution of P. lucius. We found positive relationships between the numbers of P. lucius ≤200 mm total length (TL) collected and catch per unit effort (CPUE) of native prey among reaches. For P. lucius >200 mm TL (individuals that are likely completely piscivorous), we found positive associations between the numbers of P. lucius collected and CPUE of total prey and CPUE of potential non‐native competitors in each reach. Our data suggest size‐specific affinities of P. lucius for native and non‐native prey as well as the potential for negative interactions between P. lucius and non‐native competitors may contribute to limited recruitment of juvenile P. lucius into an adult population in the San Juan River. 相似文献