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Context
Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.Objectives
We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.Methods
We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.Results
Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.Conclusions
This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.Context
Wild bee populations are currently under threat, which has led to recent efforts to increase pollinator habitat in North America. Simultaneously, U.S. federal energy policies are beginning to encourage perennial bioenergy cropping (PBC) systems, which have the potential to support native bees.Objectives
Our objective was to explore the potentially interactive effects of crop composition, total PBC area, and PBC patches in different landscape configurations.Methods
Using a spatially-explicit modeling approach, the Lonsdorf model, we simulated the impacts of three perennial bioenergy crops (PBC: willow, switchgrass, and prairie), three scenarios with different total PBC area (11.7, 23.5 and 28.8% of agricultural land converted to PBC) and two types of landscape configurations (PBC in clustered landscape patterns that represent realistic future configurations or in dispersed neutral landscape models) on a nest abundance index in an Illinois landscape.Results
Our modeling results suggest that crop composition and PBC area are particularly important for bee nest abundance, whereas landscape configuration is associated with bee nest abundance at the local scale but less so at the regional scale.Conclusions
Strategies to enhance wild bee habitat should therefore emphasize the crop composition and amount of PBC.It is known that land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes affect plant community assembly for decades. However, both the short- and the long-term effects of contrasting LULC change pathways on this assembly are seldom explored.
ObjectivesTo assess how LULC change pathways affect woody plant community parameters (i.e. species richness, diversity and evenness) and species’ presence and abundance, compared with environmental factors and neutral processes.
MethodsThe study was performed in Mediterranean limestone scrublands in NE Spain. Cover of each woody species was recorded in 150 scrubland plots belonging to five LULC change pathways along the past century, identified using land-cover maps and fieldwork. For each plot, total woody and herbaceous vegetation cover, local environmental variables and geographical position were recorded. Effects of these pathways and factors on plant community parameters and on species presence and abundance were assessed, considering spatial effects potentially associated to neutral processes.
ResultsSpecies richness and diversity were associated with LULC change pathways and elevation, while evenness was only associated with this last. Pathways and environmental variables explained similar variance in both species’ presence and cover. In general, while community parameters were affected by recent-past (1956) use, species presence and abundance were associated with far-past (pre-1900) cropping. No relevant spatial effect was detected for any studied factor.
ConclusionsHistorical LULC changes and current environmental factors drive local-scale community assembly in Mediterranean scrublands to an equal extent, while contrasting time-scale effects are found at community and species level. Neutral, dispersal-based processes are found to be non-relevant.
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