Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Tree-ring: a suitable implement for spatial and temporal fire distribution analysis in savanna woodland and dry forest

Based on 120 stem discs collected during3 months of fieldwork along a 12 km route,the history of fires in the Wari Maro Forest(09 1000 N–02 1000E) over the past century in savanna woodland and dry forest was reconstituted.Three major ecological areas are characterized:one highly burnt zone located between two relative less burnt areas.By analyzing tree rings,246 fire scars were identified.The scars were caused by 51 fire years,occurring at a mean interval of 2.23 years.From 1890 to1965,only 6 years with fires were recorded from sampled trees.Since 1966,no year has passed without fire.The fire frequency point scale reached 14 years.This was the case of Burkea africana,which has been identified as a species tolerant to fire and could be planted to create a natural firewall.In contrast,Anogeissus leiocarpa is highly sensitive to fire,and in a dry forest ecosystem that burns seasonally,it requires a special conservation plan.Two new concepts are described:the rebarking of trees after fire and Mean Kilometer Fire Interval.The first concept was tested with Daniellia oliveri(Rolfe) Hutch & Dalz trees,and the second concept was used to evaluate spatial fire distribution.We demonstrate that savanna woodland and dry forest were subject to a degradation process caused by destructive fires related to vegetation cover clearance and illegal logging.     

Comparison of a new blood sampling device with the vacuum tube system for plasma and hematological analyses in healthy dogs

Pediatric devices based on a capillary system may provide an alternative to vacuum tubes for canine blood sampling. The potential advantages are absence of vein collapse, limited blood volume sampled, and improved safety. The aim of this study was to compare routine plasma and hematological variables in seven healthy dogs using both techniques. Five biochemical analytes were measured, and a complete hematological examination and plasma exogenous creatinine clearance test were performed. No clinically relevant difference between the two techniques was observed for any variable or functional test assessed.     

Fluctuating salinity effect on Sphoeroides annulatus (Jenyns 1842) physiological responses

Euryhaline fish, such as the Bullseye puffer Sphoeroides annulatus (Jenyns 1842), experience sudden salinity changes in their natural environment, which is more common than the exception, so they must adapt to survive and cope with extreme salt conditions. Therefore, Bullseye puffer juveniles were exposed to short‐term stress (39 hr) by fluctuating salinity conditions (41, 35, 29, 23, 17, 11, 5, 11, 17, 23, 29, 35, 41 psu) with a 3‐hr interval between each point at 26 ± 1ºC in a respirometer chamber and acclimation reservoirs. Responses to oxygen consumption rate (OCR: 23–35 mg O₂ h^–1 kg^–1), ammonium excretion rate (AER: 1–1.85 mg NH4⁺ h^?1 kg^?1), oxygen‐nitrogen atomic ratio (O:N 17–30), osmoregulatory pattern (blood osmotic pressure from 342.4 to 332.8 mmol/kg) and changes in expression levels of Na⁺/K⁺‐ATPase in the gills (higher values at higher salinities) were measured. Although some signs of stress were detected below the iso‐osmotic point (11.4 psu), the puffer fish is a strong euryhaline fish that survives under these conditions. Nonetheless, it could recover when salinity returned to the initial acclimation point because Sphoeroides annulatus is able to live in a wide range of environments with wide natural salinity fluctuations; thus, a common practice in aquaculture has been to expose fish to low salinity for several reasons discussed in this study. This capacity reveals its high plasticity to saline adaptation from 41 to 5 psu an up from 5 to 41 psu, all in less than 2 days.     

Application of site-specific biomass models to quantify spatial distribution of stocks and historical emissions from deforestation in a tropical forest ecosystem

Allometric equations developed for the Lama forest, located in southern Benin, West Africa, were applied to estimate carbon stocks of three vegetation types:undisturbed forest, degraded forest, and fallow. Carbon stock of the undisturbed forest was 2.7 times higher than that in the degraded forest and 3.4 times higher than that in fallow. The structure of the forest suggests that the individual species were generally concentrated in lower diameter classes. Carbon stock was positively correlated to basal area and negatively related to tree density, suggesting that trees in higher diameter classes contributed significantly to the total carbon stock. The study demonstrated that large trees constitute an important component to include in the sampling approach to achieve accurate carbon quantification in forestry. Historical emissions from deforestation that converted more than 30% of the Lama forest into cropland between the years 1946 and 1987 amounted to 260,563.17 tons of carbon per year(t CO2/year) for the biomass pool only. The study explained the application of biomass models and ground truth data to estimate reference carbon stock of forests.     

Yield and Quality Response of Two Potato Cultivars to Nitrogen Fertilization

Potatoes require high nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates because of their poor N efficiency. Better understanding of N dynamic in potato crops could improve N efficiency and thus enhance crop profitability and reduce N losses. A similar field experiment was conducted in Switzerland in 3 years, from 2009 to 2011, to investigate the yield and quality response to N fertilization of two commercial potato cultivars with different tuber qualities, Bintje and Laura. Five doses of ammonium nitrate were tested: 0, 80, 120, 160 and 200 kg N ha^?1. Aboveground and belowground biomass evolution, total yield, starch concentration and tuber sizes were measured annually. In 2011, the total N uptake and the soil mineral N content were also measured during the growing season and at harvest.The study showed that N fertilization had a positive effect on yield and the percentage of large tubers (>?70 mm) and a negative effect on starch concentration. Both cultivars presented the same potential yield, although cv. Laura’s yield was more affected by N fertilization deficiency and more responsive to the late N fertilizer application. At harvest, both cultivars had a similar N uptake efficiency and N utilization efficiency. However, they differed with respect to N uptake dynamics. Nitrogen uptake was slower for cv. Laura than for cv. Bintje due to a longer period required for the development of the belowground biomass. The results provide useful recommendations for improvement of N fertilization practices (e.g. rate and time of application) of these two cultivars in Swiss conditions.