Baiting intervals and duration of control of the small fox tapeworm: a simulation study

Field trials to control the small fox tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis failed to reduce the prevalence of the parasite persistently. With the experience from this empirical work, a simulation model for the population dynamics of the small fox tapeworm was developed. This model is used to examine the effect of different control strategies. Sufficient control duration is able to eradicate the parasite in simulation experiments. Baiting intervals of 4 or 6 weeks were found to be more efficient than shorter or longer intervals. The strategy used in field trials showed no sustainable effect in any of the simulation experiments. The applicability of simulation models for the planning of control measures for wildlife diseases is discussed.     

Controlling Echinococcus multilocularis-ecological implications of field trials

Two field trials to reduce the prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in foxes have been conducted in recent years. Although both trials reduced prevalence considerably, they failed to eradicate the parasite in the study region. Following the control trial in northern Germany, prevalence recovered unexpectedly and rapidly, reaching pre-control levels five quarters (15 months) after the end of control. To understand the internal dynamics of the parasite-host system's reaction to control, we developed a spatially explicit simulation model, Echi. The simulation model incorporates the information available concerning fox tapeworm population dynamics.Using epidemiological parameters to adjust pre-control prevalence, the model predicts the temporal evolution of the prevalence of E. multilocularis in controlled foxes without departing from the range of uncertainty of the field data. However, the model does not predict the rapid pre-control recovery observed in the field trial.The deviation of the model's prediction from field data indicates the involvement of processes not yet taken into account. We modified the model step by step to mimic processes with the potential to cause the rapid post-control recovery of the prevalence of E. multilocularis in foxes.Neither the longevity of tapeworm eggs nor the migratory behaviour of foxes showed any influence on the post-control reaction of the parasite-host system. However, landscape structures leading to a heterogeneous distribution of infected foxes have the potential to alter the system's reaction to control. If infected foxes are concentrated in multiple clusters in the landscape, the model prediction tallied with the range of uncertainty of the field data. Such spatial distribution of infected foxes may be caused by differential abiotic conditions influencing the survival of tapeworm eggs.The model was found to comply best with field data if the foxes acquire partial immunity by being exposed to the fox tapeworm.Both hypotheses explaining the rapid post-control recovery of the prevalence of E. multilocularis observed in the fox population were supported by field data.Both hypotheses have far-reaching consequences for future control trials. The spatial aggregation of infected foxes would enable control efforts to be concentrated on these highly infected areas. However, the acquisition of immunity acts as a buffer to control, necessitating intensified control measures.     

Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.     

Fate of gram-negative bacterial biomass in soil—mineralization and contribution to SOM

Soil microorganisms contribute to the formation of non-living soil organic matter (SOM) by metabolic transformation of plant-derived material. After cell death, their biomass components with a specific molecular character become incorporated into SOM imprinting its chemical properties, although this process has not yet been quantified. In order to elucidate the contribution to SOM formation, we investigated the fate of gram-negative bacterial model biomass (Escherichia coli usually introduced into soil with manure or feces) during incubation of soil with isotopically (¹³C) and genetically (lux gene) labeled cells. The decline of living cells was monitored by the loss of bioluminescence. The carbon turnover and mineralization was balanced by bulk soil stable isotope analysis, and the persistence of nucleic acids was investigated by PCR amplification of the lux gene. During incubation, the number of viable E. coli cells decreased rapidly (99.9% within the first 42 d) serving as substrate for other microorganisms or for the formation of SOM, and bioluminescent cells could only be detected during the first 56 d. However, the lux gene was still detected after 224 d, which indicates stabilization of DNA in SOM. Although the survival of E. coli in soil is limited, only about 65% of the added labeled biomass carbon was mineralized to ¹³CO₂ and 51% remained in soil after 224 d with an average ¹³C recovery of 117%. The amount of ¹³C found in the PLFA representative of living cells had decreased to 25% of the initial value, suggesting a proportional decrease of the ¹³C in the soil microbial biomass. The extent of this decrease is higher than the mineralization of the bulk E. coli C and thus the difference of around 25% has to be stabilized as metabolites, or in non-living SOM. The data provide evidence that the genetic information and a considerable part of the carbon from dying bacterial biomass were retained in both the soil microbial food web and in non-living SOM.     

Physiological reactions of suckler calves from a cow-calf operation exposed to transport stress and temporary separation from the herd in winter stalling

Suckler calves from a cow-calf operation (German Red Pied, German Black Pied) were used repeatedly for separation, transport and isolation (TSI) experiments of 60 min duration at five life ages. Measurements of body weight, body temperature and heart rate were combined with blood sampling before TSI, and at the end of the isolation period of one hour duration as well. Effects of gender, age and body weight on the variables and on the changes of the variables were tested. Characteristic heart rate values showed the increasing excitement and the motor activation of the animals in case of transport and of manipulations and the periods of relative rest within the isolation room as well. Mean noradrenalin concentration was significantly lower after TSI at all age points, mean adrenalin concentration was significantly higher after TSI at 9-14 days and significantly lower at 59-77 days of age than before. Changes of adrenalin concentration were significantly influenced by body weight and age. Sex, body weight and age had significant effects on hemoglobin (Hb), hematokrit (Hk), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), oxygen capacity (O2CAP) and oxygen contents (O2CONT). Hb, Hk and O2CAP were significantly diminished after TSI at all age points, O2CONT and oxygen saturation (O2SAT) were significantly increased after TSI at many age points. Shrinking of body weight after TSI was always significant and was significantly affected by body weight before TSI and by age. Body weight and age had significant effects on body temperature and its changes after TSI.     

Efficiency of spatio-temporal vaccination regimes in wildlife populations under different viral constraints

ABSTRACT: Classical Swine Fever (CSF) is considered an endemic disease in European wild boar populations. In view of the high economic impact of the introduction of the virus into domestic pig units, huge efforts are invested in the preventive control of CSF in wild boar populations. Recent European Community guidelines favour oral mass vaccination against CSF in wild boar populations. The guidelines are explicit on the temporal structure of the vaccination protocol, but little is known about the efficacy of different spatial application schemes, or how they relate to outbreak dynamics.We use a spatially explicit, individual-based wild boar model that represents the ecology of the hosts and the epidemiology of CSF, both on a regional scale and on the level of individual course of infection. We simulate adaptive spatial vaccination schemes accounting for the acute spread of an outbreak while using the temporal vaccination protocol proposed in the Community guidelines.Vaccination was found to be beneficial in a wide range of scenarios. We show that the short-term proactive component of a vaccination strategy is not only as decisive as short-term continuity, but also that it can outcompete alternative practices while being practically feasible. Furthermore, we show that under certain virus-host conditions vaccination might actually contribute to disease persistence in local populations.     

The role of movement restrictions and pre-emptive destruction in the emergency control strategy against CSF outbreaks in domestic pigs

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks in domestic pig herds lead to the implementation of standard control measures according to legislative regulations. Ideal outbreak control entails the swift and efficient culling of all pigs on premises detected positive for CSF virus. Often all pig holdings around the detected cases are pre-emptively destroyed to exclude transmission into the neighbourhood. In addition to these measures, zones are defined in which surveillance and protection measures are intensified to prevent further distant disease spread. In particular, all movements are prohibited within standstill areas. Standstill also excludes the transport of fattened pigs to slaughter. Historical outbreaks provide evidence of the success of this control strategy. However, the extent to which the individual strategy elements contribute to this success is unknown. Therefore, we applied a spatially and temporally explicit epidemic model to the problem. Its rule-based formulation is tailored to a one-by-one model implementation of existing control concepts. Using a comparative model analysis the individual contributions of single measures to overall control success were revealed. From the results of the model we concluded that movement restrictions had the dominant impact on strategy performance suggesting a reversal of the current conceptual thinking. Additional measures such as pre-emptive culling only became relevant under imperfect compliance with movement restrictions. The importance of movement restrictions for the overall control success illustrates the need for explicit consideration of this measure when contingency strategies are being amended (e.g. emergency vaccination) and associated risks assessed.     

Analysis of spatio-temporal patterns of African swine fever cases in Russian wild boar does not reveal an endemic situation

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly lethal viral disease of domestic pigs and wild boar. ASF was introduced into the southern Russian Federation in 2007 and is now reported to be spreading in populations of wild and domestic suids. An endemic situation in the local wild boar population would significantly complicate management of the disease in the livestock population. To date no sound method exists for identifying the characteristic pattern of an endemic situation, which describes infection persisting from generation to generation in the same population. To support urgent management decisions at the wildlife–livestock interface, a new algorithm was constructed to test the hypothesis of an endemic disease situation in wildlife on the basis of case reports. The approach described here uses spatial and temporal associations between observed diagnostic data to discriminate between endemic and non-endemic patterns of case occurrence. The algorithm was validated with data from an epidemiological simulation model and applied to ASF case data from southern Russia. Based on the algorithm and the diagnostic data available, the null hypothesis of an endemic situation of ASF in wild boar of the region was rejected.