Evaluation of different approaches to individual tree growth and survival modelling using data collected at irregular intervals - a case study for Pinus patula in Kenya

Background： The minimum set of sub-models for simulating stand dynamics on an individual-tree basis consists of tree-level models for diameter increment and survival. Ingrowth model is a necessary third component in uneven-aged management. The development of this type of model set needs data from permanent plots, in which all trees have been numbered and measured at regular intervals for diameter and survival. New trees passing the ingrowth limit should also be numbered and measured. Unfortunately, few datasets meet all these requirements. The trees may not have numbers or the length of the measurement interval varies. Ingrowth trees may not have been measured, or the number tags may have disappeared causing errors in tree identification. Methods： This article discussed and demonstrated the use of an optimization-based approach to individual-tree growth modelling, which makes it possible to utilize data sets having one or several of the above deficiencies. The idea is to estimate all parameters of the sub-models of a growth simulator simultaneously in such a way that, when simulation begins from the diameter distribution at the first measurement occasion, it yields a similar ending diameter distribution as measured in the second measurement occasion. The method was applied to Pinus patula permanent sample plot data from Kenya. In this dataset, trees were correctly numbered and identified but measurement interval varied from 1 to 13 years. Two simple regression approaches were used and compared to the optimization-based model recovery approach. Results： The optimization-based approach resulted in far more accurate simulations of stand basal area and number of surviving trees than the equations fitted through regression analysis. Conclusions： The optimization-based modelling approach can be recommended for growth modelling when the modelling data have been collected at irregular measurement intervals.     

Prevalence of cryptosporidiosis in dairy cattle,cattle-keeping families,their non-cattle-keeping neighbours and HIV-positive individuals in Dagoretti Division,Nairobi, Kenya

The breeding of wild animals for commercial purposes is becoming more frequent nowadays. This situation has led to an increase in contact rates between wild and domestic animals, with subsequent reciprocal transmission of parasites. In this study, we characterized the gastrointestinal and blood parasites of a group of 15 semi-captive guanacos (Lama guanicoe). We characterized gastrointestinal parasites by analyzing fecal samples through the sedimentation–flotation technique and hemoparasites by using blood smears stained with Giemsa. We found several gastrointestinal parasites including Nematoda and protozoans. The most frequently found parasites were Nematodirus sp. and Eimeria sp. In contrast with previous studies, neither Cestoda nor Fasciola were found. The only hemoparasite detected was Mycoplasma haemolamae, a parasite already described in llamas and alpacas. We conclude that the most frequent gastrointestinal parasites of semi-captive guanacos were nematodes and protozoans. Also, the hemoparasite M. haemolamae seems to be prevalent among captive populations of South American camelids. Finally, captive guanacos share several parasites with the traditional livestock. Therefore, keeping captive or semi-captive guanacos without an adequate sanitary protocol might have adverse consequences to adjacent traditional cattle farming and/or for wild animals.     

First report of Cryptosporidium deer-like genotype in Kenyan cattle

The objective of the study was to identify Cryptosporidium genotypes from feces collected from urban and peri-urban dairy cattle in Nairobi, Kenya, in order to determine their zoonotic potential. DNA was extracted from 34 samples that were diagnosed positive by the modified Ziehl-Neelsen technique. Two Cryptosporidium isolates examined at the 18S rRNA locus were identified as the deer-like genotype by DNA sequencing. As public health officials are facing the difficult decision whether to allow urban livestock production because of its economic benefits and a livelihood asset to the urban communities, or to ban it for its public health risks, the finding of non-zoonotic genotypes in a smallholder dairy system has significant public health as well as economic implications that merit further investigation.     

Cryptosporidium species detected in calves and cattle in Dagoretti,Nairobi, Kenya

A total of 1,734 cattle faecal samples from 296 dairy-keeping households were collected from urban settings in Nairobi, Kenya. Modified Ziehl–Neelsen staining method and an immunofluorescence assay were used to identify those samples with Cryptosporidium oocyst infection. Oocysts from positive faecal samples were isolated by Sheather's sucrose flotation method and picked from the concentrate using cover slips. Genomic DNA was extracted from 124 of the faecal samples that were positive for Cryptosporidium and was used as template for nested PCR of the 18S rRNA gene. Twenty-five samples (20 %) were PCR-positive for Cryptosporidium, and 24 of the PCR products were successfully cloned and sequenced. Sequence and phylogenetic analysis identified 17 samples (68 %) as Cryptosporidium parvum-like, four samples (16 %) as Cryptosporidium ryanae, three samples (12 %) as Cryptosporidium andersoni and one sample (4 %) as Cryptosporidium hominis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first genotyping study to report C. parvum-like, C. andersoni and C. hominis in cattle from Kenya. The results of this study show Cryptosporidium infections in calves and cattle may be potential zoonotic reservoirs of the parasite that infects humans.     

Cryptosporidium species detected in calves and cattle in Dagoretti, Nairobi, Kenya

A total of 1,734 cattle faecal samples from 296 dairy-keeping households were collected from urban settings in Nairobi, Kenya. Modified Ziehl-Neelsen staining method and an immunofluorescence assay were used to identify those samples with Cryptosporidium oocyst infection. Oocysts from positive faecal samples were isolated by Sheather's sucrose flotation method and picked from the concentrate using cover slips. Genomic DNA was extracted from 124 of the faecal samples that were positive for Cryptosporidium and was used as template for nested PCR of the 18S rRNA gene. Twenty-five samples (20?%) were PCR-positive for Cryptosporidium, and 24 of the PCR products were successfully cloned and sequenced. Sequence and phylogenetic analysis identified 17 samples (68?%) as Cryptosporidium parvum-like, four samples (16?%) as Cryptosporidium ryanae, three samples (12?%) as Cryptosporidium andersoni and one sample (4?%) as Cryptosporidium hominis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first genotyping study to report C. parvum-like, C. andersoni and C. hominis in cattle from Kenya. The results of this study show Cryptosporidium infections in calves and cattle may be potential zoonotic reservoirs of the parasite that infects humans.     

Growing common plantation tree species in Kenya for sale of carbon and wood supply: what is the best bet?

The introduction of carbon finance as an incentive in forestry farming has a potential of increasing the amount of carbon sequestered. However, this has created a daunting task among investors in forestry to optimise the joint production of wood and carbon sequestration. For instance, investors might find it profitable to give up some timber returns in exchange for carbon credits. This study evaluated expected income from growing Cupressus lusitanica Mill., Pinus patula Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham., Eucalyptus saligna Sm. and Juniperus procera Hochst. ex Endl. for wood and/or the carbon market in central Kenya. The global average unit price of carbon and stumpage royalty were used to estimate expected returns from sale of carbon credits and wood, respectively. There were significant differences (p < 0.01) in the expected amount of income from sale of carbon and wood among the four species. Specifically, at economic rotation of 30 years with stand density of 532 trees ha^?1 P. patula and C. lusitanica yielded US$28 050 and US$23 650, respectively, from sale of carbon compared with US$59 000 and US$51 000, respectively, from sale of wood. This was twice the value investors receive from clear-felling as compared with sales from carbon. Similarly, at economic rotation of 33 years with stand density of 150 trees ha^?1, a forest investor in E. saligna would earn US$15 400 from sale of carbon compared with US$33 000 from sale of wood. Overall, the amount expected to be realised from sale of carbon was lower compared with that from sale of wood. This demonstrates that the price dynamics of carbon offsets in the voluntary and the compliance markets need to remain competitive and attractive for the forest owners to give up some timber returns in exchange for carbon income or to modify forest management regulation in order to increase carbon sequestration.     

Echinococcosis in sub-Saharan Africa: emerging complexity

Cystic echinococcosis occurs in most regions of sub-Saharan Africa, but the frequency of this zoonosis differs considerably among and within countries. Especially human cases seem to be focally distributed. A number of environmental and behavioural factors partially explain this pattern, i.e. density of livestock, presence of dogs, uncontrolled slaughter, and hygiene. In addition, the various taxa of Echinococcus spp. are known to differ considerably in infectivity to different host species including humans. Genetic characterizations of isolates, which are necessary to evaluate the impact of this factor - so far done in only a few countries - indicate that the diversity of Echinococcus spp. in Sub-Saharan Africa is greater than on any other continent. The very incomplete data which are available show that sympatrical taxa may infect different hosts, others may be geographically restricted, some life cycles involve livestock, others wild animals. Possible implications of this complexity for public health, livestock economy and conservation are briefly discussed.     

Prevalence of cryptosporidiosis in dairy cattle, cattle-keeping families, their non-cattle-keeping neighbours and HIV-positive individuals in Dagoretti Division, Nairobi, Kenya

This paper reports a study estimating the prevalence of cryptosporidiosis, an emerging zoonosis, in people and cattle in Dagoretti, Nairobi. A repeated cross-sectional survey was carried out among randomly selected cattle keepers in Dagoretti, their dairy cattle and their non-cattle-keeping neighbours in the dry and wet seasons of 2006. A survey was also carried out among a group of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Faecal samples were examined for Cryptosporidium oocysts using the modified Ziehl-Neelsen method; 16?% of the samples were also examined using immunofluorescence antibody (IFA) technique. Quality control consisted of blind reviews of slides, examining split samples and confirming slide results with IFA. We found that members of dairy households had a dry season cryptosporidiosis prevalence of 4?% and wet season prevalence of 0.3?%, and non-dairy households, a prevalence of 5 and 0?%, respectively. The cattle dry season prevalence was 15?%, and the wet season prevalence, 11?%. The prevalence in people living with HIV was 5?%. The laboratory quality control system showed some inconsistency within and between different tests, indicating challenges in obtaining consistent results under difficult field and working conditions. In conclusion, this is the first reported study to simultaneously survey livestock, livestock keepers and their neighbours for cryptosporidiosis. We failed to find evidence that zoonotic cryptosporidiosis is important overall in this community. This study also draws attention to the importance of quality control and its reporting in surveys in developing countries.     

Optimising the management of maize — Grevillea robusta fields in Kenya

The study optimised the management of a Grevillea robusta (A. Cunn.) stand growing in the central highlands of Kenya. The optimisations were conducted separately for even-aged and uneven-aged management system of trees. The management was also optimised with the requirement that maize production under the tree cover must be profitable every year. Technically, the optimisation problems were solved by linking a simulation program with the non-linear optimisation algorithm of Hooke and Jeeves. The simulation program calculated the tree growth, volumes of harvested trees, and maize yields with a given set of management parameters (decision variables). The maize yield predictions and simulated timber yields were converted into gross incomes of which the production costs were subtracted. In even-aged management the objective variable was the soil expectation value with 5% discounting rate. In uneven-aged management the mean annual net income was maximised. The optimal solutions indicated that with both management systems it is optimal to concentrate on wood production. The optimal stand densities were so high that profitable maize production was not possible under the tree cover. The mean annual wood production of the optimal management schedule was more than 50m³ ha^–1. Forcing profitable maize production in the solution decreased the wood production by 57% (even-aged forestry) or 27% (uneven-aged forestry) and net income by 45% (even-aged forestry) or 24% (uneven-aged forestry).This revised version was published online in November 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.