Evaluation of the effectiveness of selected measures against bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Switzerland by use of the basic reproduction ratio R0

The effectiveness of two measures against Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), the compulsory processing of animal by products to meat and bone meal (MBM) at 133 degrees C under 3 bars of pressure for 20 minutes in February 1993 and the exclusion of fallen stock, heads with eyes and spinal cord of cattle older than 30 month from MBM production in April 1996, was evaluated in a process model. The transmission of BSE by calculation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 was modelled.The results were verified by use of a cohort model, based on observed surveillance data. Prior to 1990, before the ban of feeding MBM to ruminants, R0, as calculated in the process model, was above 1, coherent with a slowly progressing BSE epidemic. Since 1991, values of R0 were low at 0.06.The corresponding R0 values derived from the cohort model were higher, the lowest value 0.13 calculated for 1996. Given such low R0 values, the epidemic should have died out. Additionally, no influence of the two measures was obvious at that time given the low level of R0. The discrepancy between the results of the two models is evidence for a dependency of the BSE epidemic from an infection source not considered in the process model. This infection source is most likely importation of feed ingredients and MBM.     

Twelve years experience in Switzerland: Quo vadis BSE?

When the first BSE case in Switzerland became public in 1990, it precipitated a chain of events with many diverse consequences. During this time, we continued to gain knowledge, implement new measures, and make practical recommendations in order to attempt to control the disease. This was made possible by the establishment of a huge data base containing information on all cases of BSE that had been diagnosed in Switzerland, as well as by the use of information from experiences in other countries. Analysis of these data allowed the sequence of events to be described temporally and spatially and an epidemiological evaluation to be made. These data also allow predictions to be made regarding the future of BSE in Switzerland, although these predictions must be interpreted cautiously.     

Seroprevalence of Hepatitis E Virus in Domestic Pigs and Wild Boars in Switzerland

Hepatitis E is considered an emerging human viral disease in industrialized countries. Studies from Switzerland report a human seroprevalence of hepatitis E virus (HEV) of 2.6–21%, a range lower than in adjacent European countries. The aim of this study was to determine whether HEV seroprevalence in domestic pigs and wild boars is also lower in Switzerland and whether it is increasing and thus indicating that this zoonotic viral infection is emerging. Serum samples collected from 2,001 pigs in 2006 and 2011 and from 303 wild boars from 2008 to 2012 were analysed by ELISA for the presence of HEV‐specific antibodies. Overall HEV seroprevalence was 58.1% in domestic pigs and 12.5% in wild boars. Prevalence in domestic pigs was significantly higher in 2006 than in 2011. In conclusion, HEV seroprevalence in domestic pigs and wild boars in Switzerland is comparable with the seroprevalence in other countries and not increasing. Therefore, prevalence of HEV in humans must be related to other factors than prevalence in pigs or wild boars.     

Analysis of national serological surveys for the documentation of freedom from porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome in Switzerland

Results of national serological surveys for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) conducted in Switzerland in 2001 and 2004 were analyzed. In 2001, 41,124 breeding sows from 2,540 herds out of 6,406 were sampled, and in 2004, 7,498 animals were sampled from 1,074 herds out of 5,320. All serum samples were tested for PRRS using an ELISA developed at the Institute of Virology and Immunoprophylaxis (IVI), Switzerland with a sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of 94 and 97%, respectively. Positive samples were re-tested with a commercial ELISA (IDEXX) with Se of 100% and Sp of 99%. Samples positive in the second test were confirmed with the fluorescent antibody test (FAT). A stochastic model using data from the main survey conducted in 2001 was done to verify whether the sampling scheme used could detect at least one infected herd with 99% confidence level if the herd designed prevalence was at 0.1 or 0.2%. Additionally, a Bayesian approach was conducted to calculate the post-survey probability of freedom from PRRS using data from the 2001 and 2004 surveys. A Monte Carlo simulation with 5000 iteration was run for each model. Eleven samples in 2001 and six in 2004, all from different farms, could not be conclusively confirmed as negative by the FAT. All other samples were negative. Truly infected animals and herds were not predicted by a stochastic model at the 99% confidence level and 0.1% herd prevalence using data from the 2001 survey. However, it was demonstrated that the prior probability of freedom from PRRS increased from 89.3 to 99.2% after the 2001 survey. Upon completion of the 2004 survey, the probability of freedom from PRRS reached a value of 99.7%. Based on our results, we could conclude that the pig industry in Switzerland is free of PRRS virus with this level of confidence. Restricted import activities over the last decades are a possible explanation for the continuing absence of PRRS-infection in the Swiss swine population. Import requirements defined by the pig industry minimize the risk of introduction of PRRS-infected animals in the future.     

Economic evaluation of the surveillance and intervention programme for bluetongue virus serotype 8 in Switzerland

Empirical analyses founded on sound economic principles are essential in advising policy makers on the efficiency of resource use for disease mitigation. Surveillance and intervention are resource-using activities directed at mitigation. Surveillance helps to offset negative disease effects by promoting successful intervention. Intervention is the process of implementing measures (e.g. vaccination or medication) to reduce or remove a hazard in a population. The scale and ratios in which the two are combined affect the efficiency of mitigation, its costs, benefits, and thus net effect on society's well-being. The Swiss national mitigation programme for bluetongue virus serotype 8 was used as case study to investigate the economic efficiency of mitigation. In 2008, Switzerland implemented a vaccination programme to avoid and reduce disease and infection in its ruminant population. To monitor the vaccination programme and the vector dynamics, a surveillance system consisting of serological and entomological surveillance was established. Retrospective analyses for the years 2008-2009 and prospective analyses for the years 2010-2012 were conducted to investigate if the mitigation programme was economically beneficial. In the retrospective analysis, the implemented programme (=comparative scenario) was compared to a hypothesised baseline scenario of voluntary vaccination and surveillance. In the prospective analysis, the comparative scenario assumed to continue was compared to two baseline scenarios: one of voluntary vaccination combined with surveillance and one of no vaccination combined with surveillance. For each scenario, monetary surveillance, intervention and disease costs were calculated. The comparison of baseline and comparative scenarios yielded estimates for the total benefit (=disease costs avoided), margin over intervention cost and the net value of the programme. For 2008-2009, in aggregate, the mean biannual total benefit was 17.46 m Swiss francs (CHF) (1CHF=0.66€ at the time of analysis) and the mean net benefit after subtraction of the intervention and surveillance cost was 3.95 m CHF. For the three years 2010-2012, overall net costs were estimated at 12.93 m and 8.11 m CHF, respectively, for comparison of the implemented mitigation programme with the two baseline scenarios. It was concluded that the surveillance and intervention programme implemented in 2008-2009 was economically beneficial, while its continuation in the same form in 2010-2012 would produce net costs. These costs were due to the mean intervention cost remaining constant at a level of approximately 11 m CHF per year while the mean total benefit would be gradually reduced in 2010-2012 due to the reduced occurrence of disease in a fully vaccinated population.     

Distribution and persistence ofSteinernema spp. andHeterorhabditis spp. (Nematodes) under different field conditions

The vertical and horizontal distribution, as well as the persistence ofSteinernema glaseri, S. carpocapsae (1192, I 100 and Mexican strains),Heterorhabditis bacteriophora, H. heliothidis andHeterorhabditis sp. were studied in three different soil types under field conditions. The presence of infective juveniles in soil samples taken at various depths was assessed usingGalleria mellonella larvae as baits for the nematodes. Results show that all tested nematodes had a similar pattern of vertical distribution. On the other hand,Heterorhabditis spp. were significantly more persistent thanSteinernema spp. in all soil types. As for the horizontal dispersal, none of the nematodes were ever found outside the treated plots, indicating that most of the juveniles remained near the point of application.     

Establishing a cost-effective national surveillance system for Bluetongue using scenario tree modelling

Vector-borne diseases pose a special challenge to veterinary authorities due to complex and time-consuming surveillance programs taking into account vector habitat. Using stochastic scenario tree modelling, each possible surveillance activity of a future surveillance system can be evaluated with regard to its sensitivity and the expected cost. The overall sensitivity of various potential surveillance systems, composed of different combinations of surveillance activities, is calculated and the proposed surveillance system is optimized with respect to the considered surveillance activities, the sensitivity and the cost. The objective of this project was to use stochastic scenario tree modelling in combination with a simple cost analysis in order to develop the national surveillance system for Bluetongue in Switzerland. This surveillance system was established due to the emerging outbreak of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in Northern Europe in 2006. Based on the modelling results, it was decided to implement an improved passive clinical surveillance in cattle and sheep through campaigns in order to increase disease awareness alongside a targeted bulk milk testing strategy in 200 dairy cattle herds located in high-risk areas. The estimated median probability of detection of cases (i.e. sensitivity) of the surveillance system in this combined approach was 96.4%. The evaluation of the prospective national surveillance system predicted that passive clinical surveillance in cattle would provide the highest probability to detect BTV-8 infected animals, followed by passive clinical surveillance in sheep and bulk milk testing of 200 dairy cattle farms in high-risk areas. This approach is also applicable in other countries and to other epidemic diseases.     

Atypical scrapie in a Swiss goat and implications for transmissible spongiform encephalopathy surveillance.

Different types of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) affect sheep and goats. In addition to the classical form of scrapie, both species are susceptible to experimental infections with the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) agent, and in recent years atypical scrapie cases have been reported in sheep from different European countries. Atypical scrapie in sheep is characterized by distinct histopathologic lesions and molecular characteristics of the abnormal scrapie prion protein (PrP(sc)). Characteristics of atypical scrapie have not yet been described in detail in goats. A goat presenting features of atypical scrapie was identified in Switzerland. Although there was no difference between the molecular characteristics of PrP(sc) in this animal and those of atypical scrapie in sheep, differences in the distribution of histopathologic lesions and PrP(sc) deposition were observed. In particular the cerebellar cortex, a major site of PrP(sc) deposition in atypical scrapie in sheep, was found to be virtually unaffected in this goat. In contrast, severe lesions and PrP(sc) deposition were detected in more rostral brain structures, such as thalamus and midbrain. Two TSE screening tests and PrP(sc) immunohistochemistry were either negative or barely positive when applied to cerebellum and obex tissues, the target samples for TSE surveillance in sheep and goats. These findings suggest that such cases may have been missed in the past and could be overlooked in the future if sampling and testing procedures are not adapted. The epidemiological and veterinary public health implications of these atypical cases, however, are not yet known.