Relationship between clinical signs and transmission of an infectious disease and the implications for control

Control of many infectious diseases relies on the detection of clinical cases and the isolation, removal, or treatment of cases and their contacts. The success of such "reactive" strategies is influenced by the fraction of transmission occurring before signs appear. We performed experimental studies of foot-and-mouth disease transmission in cattle and estimated this fraction at less than half the value expected from detecting virus in body fluids, the standard proxy measure of infectiousness. This is because the infectious period is shorter (mean 1.7 days) than currently realized, and animals are not infectious until, on average, 0.5 days after clinical signs appear. These results imply that controversial preemptive control measures may be unnecessary; instead, efforts should be directed at early detection of infection and rapid intervention.     

Persistence of velogenic viscerotropic Newcastle disease virus in litter.

Litter in a room which had housed chickens and turkeys actively infected with velogenic viscerotropic Newcastle disease was no longer infectious for susceptible chickens placed there 10 to 14 days later.     

Application of the egg-bit technique in poultry-disease research

Experiments were carried out to determine the usefulness of the egg-bit technique (EBT) in poultry virus research with various agents available on the market. The EBT was found satisfactory for propagating 9 strains of avian influenza virus of different antigenic groups, with only minor differences resulting when the procedure used two sources of gelatin, presence or absence of CaCl2, or commercial or specific-pathogen-free embryos.     

Understanding foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission biology: identification of the indicators of infectiousness

The control of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) outbreaks in non-endemic countries relies on the rapid detection and removal of infected animals. In this paper we use the observed relationship between the onset of clinical signs and direct contact transmission of FMDV to identify predictors for the onset of clinical signs and identify possible approaches to preclinical screening in the field. Threshold levels for various virological and immunological variables were determined using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and then tested using generalized linear mixed models to determine their ability to predict the onset of clinical signs. In addition, concordance statistics between qualitative real time PCR test results and virus isolation results were evaluated. For the majority of animals (71%), the onset of clinical signs occurred 3–4 days post infection. The onset of clinical signs was associated with high levels of virus in the blood, oropharyngeal fluid and nasal fluid. Virus is first detectable in the oropharyngeal fluid, but detection of virus in the blood and nasal fluid may also be good candidates for preclinical indicators. Detection of virus in the air was also significantly associated with transmission. This study is the first to identify statistically significant indicators of infectiousness for FMDV at defined time periods during disease progression in a natural host species. Identifying factors associated with infectiousness will advance our understanding of transmission mechanisms and refine intra-herd and inter-herd disease transmission models.