External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings

A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations, indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly influenced by external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature variations are due to changes in external forcings. Anthropogenic global warming under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades.     

Reconstructing past climate from noisy data

Empirical reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature in the past millennium based on multiproxy records depict small-amplitude variations followed by a clear warming trend in the past two centuries. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulation of the past 1000 years as a surrogate climate to test the skill of these methods, particularly at multidecadal and centennial time scales. Idealized proxy records are represented by simulated grid-point temperature, degraded with statistical noise. The centennial variability of the NH temperature is underestimated by the regression-based methods applied here, suggesting that past variations may have been at least a factor of 2 larger than indicated by empirical reconstructions.     

Human Influence on the Atmospheric Vertical Temperature Structure: Detection and Observations

Recent work suggests a discernible human influence on climate. This finding is supported, with less restrictive assumptions than those used in earlier studies, by a 1961 through 1995 data set of radiosonde observations and by ensembles of coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations forced with changes in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosols, and stratospheric ozone. On balance, agreement between the simulations and observations is best for a combination of greenhouse gas, aerosol, and ozone forcing. The uncertainties remaining are due to imperfect knowledge of radiative forcing, natural climate variability, and errors in observations and model response.