From regionally predictable to locally complex population structure in a freshwater top predator: river systems are not always the unit of connectivity in Northern Pike Esox lucius

Contemporary genetic diversity is the product of both historical and contemporary forces, such as climatic and geological processes affecting range distribution and continuously moulded by evolutionary forces selection, gene flow and genetic drift. Predatory freshwater fishes, such as Northern Pike Esox lucius, commonly exhibit small population sizes, and several local populations are considered endangered. Pike inhabit diverse habitat types, including lakes, rivers and brackish marine waters, thus spanning from small isolated patches to large open marine systems. However, pike population structure from local to regional scales is relatively poorly described, in spite of its significance to developing conservation measures. We analysed microsatellite variation in a total of 1185 North European pike from 46 samples collected across both local and regional scales, as well as over time, to address two overarching questions: Is pike population structure associated with local and/or regional connectivity patterns, and which factors likely have the main influence on the contemporary distribution of genetic diversity? To answer this, we combined estimators of population diversity and structure to assess evidence of whether populations within (i) habitats, (ii) drainage systems and (iii) geographical regions are closer related than among these ranges, and whether patterns are temporally stable. Contrasting previous predictions that genetic drift obscures signals of postglacial colonisation history, we identified clear regional differences in population genetic signatures, suggesting a major effect of drainage divides on colonisation history and connectivity. However, several populations deviated from the general pattern, showing that local processes may be complex and need to be examined case‐by‐case.     

Combining agent-based and stock-flow modelling approaches in a participative analysis of the integrated land system in Reichraming, Austria

The integrated modelling of coupled socio-ecological systems in land-change science requires innovative model concepts capable of grasping the interrelations between socioeconomic and natural components. Here, we discuss the integrated socio-ecological model SERD (Simulation of Ecological Compatibility of Regional Development) that was developed for the municipality of Reichraming in Upper Austria in a participative 2-year process involving local stakeholders. SERD includes three main components: (1) an agent-based actors module that simulates decisions of farmsteads, the municipal administration and other important actors; (2) a spatially explicit (GIS based) land-use module that simulates land-use change at the level of individual parcels of land and (3) an integrated socio-ecological stock-flow module that simulates carbon and nitrogen flows through both socioeconomic and ecological system compartments. We report on outcomes of a scenario analysis that outlines possible future trajectories depending on both external (e.g. agricultural subsidies and prices) and internal (e.g. innovation, willingness to co-operate) factors. We find that both external and internal factors can affect the behaviour of the integrated system considerably. Local and regional policies are found to be able to counteract adverse global socioeconomic conditions to some extent, but not to reverse the trend altogether. We also find strong interdependencies between socioeconomic and ecological components of the system. Fully evaluating these interdependencies is, however, not possible at the local scale alone and will require explicit consideration of higher-level effects in future research.     

Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Echinococcus multilocularis (Cestoda,Taeniidae) in Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in northern Belgium

The first record of the tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis (Cestoda, Taeniidae) in Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in northern Belgium is described. Between 1996 and 1999, 237 dead foxes were examined for the presence of this tapeworm using the intestinal scraping technique. Four foxes (1.7%) were found to be infected with E. multilocularis and showed medium to very high parasitic burdens. Three infected foxes originated from the south of the study area and the fourth animal came from the north of the study area near the border with The Netherlands. These findings are discussed in relation to the high endemicity of E. multilocularis in southern Belgium and to the increased distribution of the Red fox (V. vulpes) in northern Belgium during the last two decades.     

Minimum space allowance for transportation of swine by road

Space allowance for animals in transit is a consistent concern in many countries that are developing codes of practice and regulations to assure humane treatment of food producing animals. The minimum space allowance requirements for a broad size range of swine in transit has not been well described or scientifically substantiated. A maximal loading pressure recommendation for pigs weighing from 5 to 250 kg was derived by a consultative process involving the swine transportation industry, animal welfare groups, and a literature review. The recommended maximal loading pressure under ideal conditions for swine loaded in groups can be described as a hoerl model y = (37.53)(0.9969)w(W0.5008), where y = loading pressure in kg body weight/m2 and W = average animal body weight in kilograms.     

Immunisation against Theileria parva in eastern Zambia: influence of maternal antibodies and demonstration of the carrier status

Immunisation of calves by the infection and treatment method (I & T) has been extensively used in the eastern province of Zambia to control East Coast fever (ECF), a protozoan tick-borne disease. This paper presents the results of a field longitudinal study, which included a total of 148 Angoni calves. After immunisation against ECF, they were monitored for a full rainy season, coinciding with the main peak of activity of the vector of Theileria parva, the tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus. Dysimmunisation (acute reaction generated by I & T immunisation), seroconversion and mortality are among the parameters recorded. The effect of maternal antibodies on these parameters was analysed and also studied in experimental conditions on two calves. Before immunisation, young calves had a higher seroprevalence than older animals (maternal antibodies) but their post-immunisation seroprevalence was lower. There was no evidence that their immunoprotection was weaker but this indicates that the post-immunisation seroconversion is probably not a reliable tool to monitor the efficacy of calf immunisation. The carrier state of cattle after immunisation was investigated in experimental conditions on three bovines whereas in the field, the infection prevalence in the ticks was estimated using the relation between the tick burden and the T. parva contacts with the calves. The ability of larval and nymphal R. appendiculatus ticks to pick-up T. parva from carriers and to transmit it to na?ve animals after moulting was assessed. It was found that both instars are able to transmit clinical and lethal ECF but that the prevalence of T. parva infection in nymphs is much lower than in adults, confirming the primary role of adults in the transmission of ECF in endemic conditions. Similar results were obtained from the field whereby the ECF peak corresponds with the peak of adult R. appendiculatus activity. The infection prevalence in the ticks was however much lower in the field than in experimental conditions indicating that an important proportion of them feed on alternative hosts. Old ticks seemed to have lost part of their infectivity.     

Transmission of Theileriosis in the Traditional Farming Sector in the Southern Province of Zambia during 1995–1996

The incidence of first contact with the protozoan Theileria parva was determined in three traditional cattle herds in the Southern Province of Zambia in 1995 and 1996. The majority of first contacts occurred during the dry season in June, July and August, at a time of nymphal activity and in the absence of Rhipicephalus appendiculatus adults, indicating that larva to nymph transmission plays a more prominent role than nymph to adult transmission under the prevailing conditions.