Modeling exurban development near Washington, DC, USA: comparison of a pattern-based model and a spatially-explicit econometric model

The development of private rural lands can significantly fragment landscapes, with potentially negative consequences on ecosystem services. Models of land-use trends beyond the urban fringe are therefore useful for developing policy to manage these environmental effects. However, land-use change models have been primarily applied in urban environments, and it is unclear whether they can adequately predict exurban growth. This study compared the ability of two urban growth models to project exurban development in north-central Virginia and western Maryland over a 24-year period. Pattern-based urban growth models (such as SLEUTH) are widely used, but largely mimic patterns that emerge from historic conditions rather than allowing landowner decision-making to project change. In contrast, spatially-explicit econometric models (such as the complementary log?Clog hazard assessed in this study) model landowner choices as profit-maximizing behavior subject to market and regulatory constraints. We evaluated the two raster-based models by comparing model predictions to observed exurban conversion at pixel and county scales. The SLEUTH model was more successful at matching the total amount of new growth at the county scale than it was at the pixel scale, suggesting its most appropriate use in exurban areas is as a blunt instrument to forewarn potential coarse-scale losses of natural resources. The econometric model performed significantly better than SLEUTH at both scales, although it was not completely successful in fulfilling its promise of projecting changes that were sensitive to policy. The lack of significance of some policy variables may have resulted from insufficient variation in drivers over our study area or time period, but also suggests that drivers of land use change in exurban environments may differ from those identified for urban areas.     

A new approach for rescaling land cover data

The resolution of satellite imagery must often be increased or decreased to fill data gaps or match preexisting project requirements. It is well known that a change in resolution introduces systematic errors of size, shape, location and amount of contiguous land cover types. Nevertheless, robust methods for rescaling landscape data are frequently required to assess patterns of landscape change through time and over large areas. We developed a new method for rescaling spatial data that allows map resolution (grain size) to be either increased or decreased while holding the total proportion of land cover types constant. The method uses a weighted sampling net of variable resolution to sample an existing map and then randomly selects from the frequency of cover types derived from this sample to assign the cover type for the corresponding location in the rescaled map. The properties of the sampling net had a variable effect on measures of landscape pattern with the characteristic patch size (S) the most robust metric and the number of clusters (A) the most variable. A comparison of up-scaled and down-scaled maps showed that this process is not symmetrical, producing different errors for increases versus decreases in grain size. Rescaling Landsat (30 m) imagery to the 10 m resolution of SPOT imagery for four National Park units within Maryland and Virginia resulted in errors due to rescaling that were small (1–2%) relative to the total error (∼11%) associated with these images. The new rescaling method is general because it provides a single method for increasing or decreasing resolution, can be applied to maps with multiple land cover types, allows grid geometry to be transformed (i.e., square to hexagonal grids), and provide a more consistent basis for landscape comparisons when maps must be derived from multiple sources of classified imagery.     

A simple method for estimating potential relative radiation (PRR) for landscape-scale vegetation analysis

Radiation is one of the primary influences on vegetation composition and spatial pattern. Topographic orientation is often used as a proxy for relative radiation load due to its effects on evaporative demand and local temperature. Common methods for incorporating this information (i.e., site measures of slope and aspect) fail to include daily or annual changes in solar orientation and shading effects from local topography. As a result, these static measures do not incorporate the level of spatial and temporal heterogeneity required to examine vegetation patterns at the landscape level. We developed a widely applicable method for estimating potential relative radiation (PRR) using digital elevation data and a widely used geographic information system (Arc/Info). We found significant differences among four increasingly comprehensive radiation proxies. Our GIS-based proxy compared well with estimates from more data-intensive and computationally rigorous radiation models. We note that several recent studies have not found strong correlations between vegetation pattern and landscape-scale differences in radiation. We suggest that these findings may be due to the use of proxies that were not accurately capturing variability in radiation, and we recommend PRR or similar measures for use in future vegetation analyses.     

Two measures of landscape-graph connectivity: assessment across gradients in area and configuration

Landscape connectivity is critical to species persistence in the face of habitat loss and fragmentation. Graph theory is a well-defined method for quantifying connectivity that has tremendous potential for ecology, but its application has been limited to a small number of conservation scenarios, each with a fixed proportion of habitat. Because it is important to distinguish changes in habitat configuration from changes in habitat area in assessing the potential impacts of fragmentation, we investigated two metrics that measure these different influences on connectivity. The first metric, graph diameter, has been advocated as a useful measure of habitat configuration. We propose a second area-based metric that combines information on the amount of connected habitat and the amount of habitat in the largest patch. We calculated each metric across gradients in habitat area and configuration using multifractal neutral landscapes. The results identify critical connectivity thresholds as a function of the level of fragmentation and a parallel is drawn between the behavior of graph theory metrics and those of percolation theory. The combination of the two metrics provides a means for targeting sites most at risk of suffering low potential connectivity as a result of habitat fragmentation.