The science and application of ecological monitoring

We provide a broad overview of the underlying philosophy of ecological monitoring. We argue that the major characteristics of effective monitoring programs typically include: (1) Good questions. (2) A conceptual model of an ecosystem or population. (3) Strong partnerships between scientists, policy-makers and managers. (4) Frequent use of data collected.We classify monitoring programs into three categories - (1) Passive monitoring, which is devoid of specified questions or underlying study design and has limited rationale other than curiosity. (2) Mandated monitoring where environmental data are gathered as a stipulated requirement of government legislation or a political directive. The focus is usually to identify trends. (3) Question-driven monitoring, which is guided by a conceptual model and by a rigorous design that will typically result in a priori predictions that can be tested.There are advantages and disadvantages of mandated monitoring programs, which are typically large-scaled, and generally smaller-scaled, question-driven monitoring programs. For example, while question-driven monitoring programs can provide insights into the ecological processes giving rise to emergent environmental patterns, spatial generalization from them is difficult because results may not extrapolate well to other regions, states or to a national level. Conversely, while mandated monitoring can be useful for producing coarse level summaries of temporal changes in a target population or resource condition they may not identify the mechanism influencing a change in an ecosystem or an entity. A key remaining challenge is to develop much improved mandated monitoring programs through more widespread adoption of the features of successful question-driven monitoring programs in efforts to enhance biodiversity conservation and environmental management.     

A reverse keystone species affects the landscape distribution of woodland avifauna: a case study using the Noisy Miner (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Manorina melanocephala</Emphasis>) and other Australian birds

We explored the effects of a purported ‘reverse keystone species’, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) using a long-term, large-scale dataset. Specifically, we identify whether this aggressive bird affects the landscape distribution patterns of other avifauna, by displacing them into, or restricting their distribution to, less productive areas, and in so doing, adheres to ‘isoleg theory’. We sought to determine the effect of abundance of the Noisy Miner on the abundance of other birds (individual species and groups), and determine whether that effect was consistent with varying site productivity, using a negative binomial distribution with a logarithmic link function, and an offset variable to account for variations in search effort. Relationships between abundance of Noisy Miners and habitat variables were examined using a Poisson distribution with a logarithmic link function scaled for extra-variation (quasi-Poisson regression). We demonstrate that when Noisy Miner abundance is low, many small passerine species are more abundant on high productivity sites. However, as Noisy Miner abundance increases, small passerine abundance decreases, with this decrease most apparent on productive sites. The same patterns were not evident for birds considered ‘non-competitors’ of the Noisy Miner. We identify that both site productivity and vegetation structure influence the abundance of the Noisy Miner. We reveal that the species increasingly tolerates ‘less desirable’ habitat attributes with increasing site productivity. The preference of the Noisy Miner for productive areas is likely to have deleterious impacts on the long-term survival and reproductive success of other Australian woodland bird species, many of which have already undergone severe declines.     

Synthesis: Thresholds in conservation and management

This paper is a brief overview of some of the key issues which have emerged from the preceding set of papers on ecological thresholds. These include:

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Whether threshold relationships are common and widespread.

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The potential for large variations in the use and application of the threshold concept to lead to adverse conservation outcomes, particularly when overly simplistic levels of vegetation cover are specified by policy makers and land managers.

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The inherent multi-variate nature of landscape processes and responses of individual species and assemblages that creates variability in datasets. This may lead to a limited ability to make accurate predictions from threshold relationships, even when those relationships are highly statistically significant.

We believe that although the threshold concept is an appealing one and there is some empirical evidence to support it in some landscapes, it is not free of problems and a concerted research effort on the topic is needed. This is particularly important if it is to have value for robustly underpinning applied landscape management practices without unintentionally having negative impacts on rates of species loss or the loss of particular species.     

Small mammals, habitat patches and PVA models: a field test of model predictive ability

The results are described of comparisons between actual values for patch occupancy for two species of Australian small mammals (Bush Rat Rattus fuscipes and Agile Antechinus Antechinus agilis) determined from field sampling and predictions of patch occupancy made using VORTEX, a generic simulation model for Population Viability Analysis (PVA). The work focussed on a fragmented forest in south-eastern Australia comprised of a network of 39 patches of native eucalypt forest surrounded by extensive stands of exotic softwood Radiata Pine (Pinus radiata) plantation. A range of modelling scenarios were completed in which four broad factors were varied: (1) inter-patch variation in habitat quality; (2) the pattern of inter-patch dispersal; (3) the rate of inter-patch dispersal; and (4) the population sink effects of the Radiata Pine matrix that surrounded the eucalypt patches. Model predictions were made for the total number of animals, the distribution of animal density among patches, the total number of occupied patches, and the probability of patch occupancy. Predictions were then compared with observed values for these same measures based on extensive field surveys of small mammals in the patch system. For most models for the Bush Rat, the predicted relative density of animals per patch correlated well with the values estimated from field surveys. Predictions of patch occupancy were not significantly different from the actual value for the number of occupied patches in half the models tested. The better models explained 10-16% of the log-likelihood of the probability of patch occupancy. While some of the models gave reasonable forecasts of the number of occupied patches, even in these cases, they had only moderate ability to predict which patches were occupied. Field surveys revealed there was no relationship between patch area and population density for the Agile Antechinus—an outcome correctly predicted by only a few models. Five of the 18 scenarios completed for the Agile Antechinus gave predicted numbers of occupied patches not significantly different from the observed number. In each of these five cases, large standard deviations around the mean predicted value meant uncertainty generated by the simulation model limited the predictive power of the PVA. Some of the models gave reasonable predictions for the number of occupied patches, but those models were unable to predict which ones were actually occupied. The results of our study suggest that key processes influencing which specific patches would be occupied were not modelled appropriately. High levels of variability and fecundity drive the population dynamics of the Bush Rat and Agile Antechinus, making the patch system unpredictable and difficult to model accurately. Despite the fact that both the Bush Rat and the Agile Antechinus are two of the most studied mammals in Australia, there are attributes of their biology that are presently poorly understood (which were not included in the VORTEX model), but which could strongly influence patch occupancy. For example, local landscape features may be important determinants of inter-patch movement and habitat utilisation in the patch system. Further empirical studies are needed to explore this aspect of small mammal biology.     

Landscape,fire and habitat: which features of recently burned heathland influence site occupancy of an early successional specialist?

Context

Multiple ecological drivers generate spatial patterns in species’ distributions. Changes to natural disturbance regimes can place early successional habitat specialists at an increased risk of extinction by altering landscape patterns of habitat suitability.

Objectives

We developed a series of hypotheses to evaluate the effects of landscape structure, fire history, and site-level habitat quality on site occupancy by an early successional specialist, the eastern chestnut mouse (Pseudomys gracilicaudatus).

Methods

We obtained eight years of monitoring data from 26 sites in recently burned heathland in southeast Australia. We used generalised linear models to determine which explanatory variables were related to occupancy. We also explored predictability in patterns of small mammal species co-occurrence.

Results

Landscape structure (patch area, landscape heterogeneity) was strongly related to site occupancy. Site occupancy was associated with dead shrubs in the understory and rock cover on ground layer, but was not directly influenced by recent or historical fire. Contrary to contemporary ecological theory, we found no predictable species associations in our early successional community.

Conclusions

We recommend surveys take account of landscape configuration and proximity to suitable habitat for optimal results. Fire regimes expected to promote eastern chestnut mouse population growth should encourage the retention of critical habitat features rather than be based on temporal rates of successional stages. For management to adequately account for post-disturbance patterns in early successional communities, a species-by-species, multi-scaled approach to research is necessary.

     

Are gullies best for biodiversity? An empirical examination of Australian wet forest types

A relatively common observation in forest environments has been that gullies support higher species richness and individual abundance than elsewhere in the landscape. We completed a detailed case study of birds to contrast species richness and assemblage composition between gullies and other parts of the topography of landscapes in three closely related and spatially adjacent wet ash forest types – those dominated by Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans), Alpine Ash (E. delegatensis) or Shining Gum (E. nitens) – in the Central Highlands of Victoria, south-eastern Australia. We also quantified the influence of a wide range of other measures of stand structure and plant species composition on the bird assemblage and on individual bird species.     

A history of hubris – Cautionary lessons in ecologically sustainable forest management

Logging is one of the most important forms of native-forest exploitation and can have substantial impacts on biodiversity and key ecosystem services. Here we briefly contrast logging operations in temperate and tropical forests and then highlight several challenges for understanding the ecological impacts of logging. We argue that many logging studies are conducted at small spatial scales or over inadequate time periods, and are biased against finding significant negative impacts. This is because of confounding environmental differences between logged and unlogged forests as well as the prolonged nature of forest stand development. Human perceptions of logging also can be biased by the ‘shifting baseline’ phenomenon, and by an incorrect perception that logging operations approximate natural disturbance regimes. We argue that the ecological impacts of logging can be more challenging to detect than is often appreciated, and that forest managers and decision-makers should be cautious when weighing the arguments of pro-logging lobbies.     

Optimal management of a flammable multi-stand forest for timber production and maintenance of nesting sites for wildlife

Decline of cavity-using wildlife species is a major forest management issue. One of the causes of this problem is the loss in cavity tree abundance, resulting from short rotation silviculture, stand-replacing disturbance events and timber harvesting in disturbed stands. Cavity tree availability cannot be guaranteed due to the stochastic nature of disturbance events. We developed a Markov model to predict future cavity tree availability under alternative tree felling and fire protection strategies using information on cavity tree dynamics and fire history. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to find a strategy that maximizes timber revenues less forest management costs, including the cost of an artificial nest-box program that must be implemented whenever cavity trees become critically scarce. The requirement to implement a nest-box program in such circumstances strongly influenced the optimal tree felling strategy and resulted in a higher probability of having cavity trees in the future. This reflected an increase in the retention of old growth forest and stands with fire-killed cavity trees as well as stands of younger trees to provide a future source of cavities. These results demonstrate the need to consider the costs of artificial habitat enhancement and the risk of future cavity tree scarcity in multiple-use forest management planning.     

Landscape change and the science of biodiversity conservation in tropical forests: A view from the temperate world

Using a largely temperate forest perspective, this article briefly reviews four often inter-related types of landscape change which can have significant impacts on tropical and temperate forest biodiversity: logging, fire, forest clearing, and plantation expansion. There are many important similarities but also key differences in the kinds of work conducted on these four kinds of landscape change in tropical and temperate forests. For example, direct studies of the effects of forest conversion on biodiversity are relatively rare in both tropical and temperate ecosystems. Temperate forest research differs from tropical research in terms of relative amount of single species work, long-term studies, and research at scales spanning multiple landscapes. There are key areas for cross-fertilization of research in tropical and temperate forest biomes. These include: (1) the ability of species to persist in post-disturbed forest landscapes, including those perturbed by past clearing, logging or wildfire, (2) the impacts of plantation establishment on biodiversity, (3) the effectiveness of altered silvicultural systems on forest structure, vegetation composition, and biota, and (4) inter-relationships between forest logging and fire-proneness. Cross-learning about the impacts of drivers of landscape change between tropical and temperate forests is fundamental for speeding the progress of conservation efforts in both broad kinds of environments. However, some opportunities for cross-learning have not been taken because temperate and tropical forest research has often sometimes been isolated from one another. Some approaches to tackle this problem are briefly outlined.