Modeling the dynamics of backyard chicken flows in traditional trade networks in Thailand: implications for surveillance and control of avian influenza

In Southeast Asia, traditional poultry marketing chains have been threatened by epidemics caused by the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) virus. In Thailand, the trade of live backyard chickens is based on the activities of traders buying chickens from villages and supplying urban markets with chicken meat. This study aims to quantify the flows of chickens traded during a 1-year period in a province of Thailand. A compartmental stochastic dynamic model was constructed to illustrate trade flows of live chickens from villages to slaughterhouses. Live poultry movements present important temporal variations with increased activities during the 15 days preceding the Chinese New Year and, to a lesser extent, other festivals (Qingming Festival, Thai New Year, Hungry Ghost Festival, and International New Year). The average distance of poultry movements ranges from 4 to 25 km, defining a spatial scale for the risk of avian influenza that spread through traditional poultry marketing chains. Some characteristics of traditional poultry networks in Thailand, such as overlapping chicken supply zones, may facilitate disease diffusion over longer distances through combined expansion and relocation processes. This information may be of use in tailoring avian influenza and other emerging infectious poultry disease surveillance and control programs provided that the cost-effectiveness of such scenarios is also evaluated in further studies.     

Retracted: Risks of Avian Influenza (H5) in Duck Farms in the Ayeyarwaddy Delta Region,Myanmar

The Ayeyarwaddy delta region in the south‐west of Myanmar is the main agricultural and rice‐growing area. The region has a high density of duck and backyard chicken populations with low biosecurity. The objective of this study was to analyse risk factors for avian influenza (H5) in the Ayeyarwaddy delta region, Myanmar. A case–control risk factor study was conducted from April to June 2010 by individual interviews including risk factor questionnaires given to duck farmers (n = 50) in five townships in the Ayeyarwaddy delta region, Myanmar. Risk factor analyses were conducted using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression model with backward stepwise (wald) method. The results showed significant risk factors for AI (H5) sero‐positivity in ducks were wooden egg box containers (OR = 52.7, 95% CI = 2.34–1188, P = 0.013) and water sourced from wetlands (OR = 30.7, 95% CI = 1.96–481.6, P = 0.015). Conversely, the cleaning of reusable egg containers was determined as a protective factor (OR = 0.03, 95% CI = 0.00–0.42, P = 0.01). In conclusion, this study identified risk factors for AI (H5) in duck farms and the importance of avian influenza prevention and control.