A new short-term natural gas consumption model is developed, tested against American Gas Association sales data, and applied to the question of the effectiveness of conservation efforts. The results indicate that unit residential gas-heating sales per heating degree-day have remained constant in four major gas-consuming regions during the period 1974 to 1976 and that heating sales have not been affected by the recent sharp changes in price. 相似文献
The study of habitat fragmentation is complex because multiple, potentially synergistic, ecological processes may be acting simultaneously. Further, edge effects themselves may be complex in that additivity from multiple edges can give rise to heterogeneous nearest–edge gradients.
Objectives
We used heat diffusion as a proxy for additive edge effects in two study landscapes in order to test whether two key observations recently attributed to synergy between edge and area effects could be more simply explained by additivity; namely, steeper edge gradients in larger fragments and variation in slopes of species–area relationships as a function of distances to fragment edges.
Methods
We sampled forest structure in northwestern Madagascar at various distances from the edge in fragments and continuous forest and used an inverse modelling approach to parameterize the model. In addition, we applied the model to data from a published study of beetle communities in fragmented forests in New Zealand.
Results
With increasing proximity to edges, woody stem densities decreased and, as predicted, smaller fragments had lower stem densities and less steep edge gradients than larger ones. The model successfully predicted shifts in species–area relationships as a function of nearest–edge distances for beetle species, although observed richness for forest specialists in the smallest fragments was lower than predicted.
Conclusions
Two key observations attributed to synergy between edge and area effects were explained by edge additivity. The model is particularly useful in that it can help to disentangle the complex sets of processes acting in fragmented landscapes.
ABSTRACT Monilinia vaccinii-corymbosi infects open blueberry flowers via the gynoecial pathway, leading to mummification of the developing fruit. To determine the effect of flower age on infection, stigmata were inoculated with conidia of M. vaccinii-corymbosi between 0 and 5 days after anthesis, fungal growth rates through the stylar canal were measured in detached flowers in the laboratory, and fruit disease incidence was determined in plants grown in the greenhouse. Hyphal growth rates were greatest in flowers inoculated on the day of anthesis, declined linearly with increasing flower age at inoculation (r = 0.921; P < 0.0001; n = 12), and were unaffected by the presence or absence of pollen applied at the time of inoculation. In greenhouse-grown plants, the percentage of infected fruit decreased exponentially with increasing flower age at inoculation (R = 0.878; P = 0.0057; n = 10), with disease incidence ranging from 76.4% for flowers inoculated on the day of anthesis to 15.5% for those inoculated 4 days later. Fruit disease incidence in the greenhouse was linearly correlated with hyphal growth rates in detached flowers (r = 0.985; P < 0.0001; n = 9), justifying the use of detached flowers when investigating gynoecial infection by M. vaccinii-corymbosi. In separate experiments, the effects of timing and sequence of pollination and inoculation on hyphal growth rates through the stylar canal and on disease incidence were investigated. Application of pollen to detached flowers 1 or 2 days before inoculation reduced hyphal growth rates by between 14.0 and 42.9% compared with flowers that received pollen and conidia simultaneously. Similarly, reductions in fruit disease incidence by between 9.5 and 18.3% were observed on greenhouse-grown plants for pollination-to-inoculation intervals ranging from 1 to 4 days. These results document that newly opened flowers are most susceptible to infection by M. vaccinii-corymbosi and that fruit disease incidence is reduced if pollination occurs at least 1 day before inoculation. Strategies that lead to early pollination of newly opened flowers may be useful for managing mummy berry disease in the field. 相似文献
A single dose of 5 x 10(8) bacilli of Pseudomonas pseudomallei by intratracheal injection resulted in acute (21 cases) or chronic (19 cases) melioidosis in 40 of 48 pigs. Fifteen (10 acute and 5 chronic) had been immunosuppressed by cyclophosphamide before inoculation. The major clinical signs were initial fever, marked neutrophilia and, in the acute cases, respiratory distress. There were no signs of the nasal and ocular discharge, paresis or diarrhoea seen in acute cases in south-east Asia. The cyclophosphamide treatment caused a significant decrease in the neutrophil count by 7 d after inoculation in all 15 immunosuppressed pigs, and all were culture positive at necropsy. Eight of the 33 non-treated pigs were culture negative at necropsy. Pigs overcoming the initial phase of infection had more abscess-like nodules that were bacteriologically sterile at necropsy than the pigs with acute cases of melioidosis. P. pseudomallei was isolated predominantly from the spleen, lungs and the injection site. Although only one strain was used in this study, it is likely that Australian strains of P. pseudomallei are not as virulent as the south-east Asian isolates. 相似文献
ABSTRACT Durability of partially resistant wheat cultivars to wheat leaf rust depends on the amount of genetic variation in parasitic fitness within populations of the pathogen Puccinia triticina. To assess the durability of partial resistance, selection experiments were used to explore quantitative variation in parasitic fitness of P. triticina. Fungal populations 881-WT and 882-WT were selected for shortened latent period on partially resistant cvs. CI 13277 and Sw 72469-6 for multiple generations. Fitness components were measured for wild-type and selected fungal populations. Responses to selection and selection differentials were calculated, and broad-sense, realized heritabilities for latent period were estimated for wild-type fungal populations on CI 13227 and on Sw 72469-6. Selected populations had fitness characteristics, not limited to latent period, that could provide greater fitness in nature. Generally, more cycles of selection had greater effects on fitness. In particular cases, selected populations on a partially resistant cultivar had values for latent period, uredinium area, and sporulation no different from those of a susceptible host-pathogen combination. Heritabilities of latent period of populations 881-WT and 882-WT on CI 13227 or populations 881-WT and 882-WT on Sw 72469-6 ranged from 0.65 to 0.76 and 0.17 to 0.24, respectively. Our results suggest the variation to overcome quantitative host resistance exists in extant populations of P. triticina. In addition, because more of the variation in latent period for populations of P. triticina on CI 13227 was genetic than for populations on Sw 72469-6, CI 13227 is likely to be more vulnerable to pathogen adaptation despite its exceptionally long latent period. 相似文献
Careful nitrogen (N) management will be needed to nourish the growing human population while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. Aquaponic systems (AS) have a great potential to become a sustainable technology making further use of N-rich aquaculture wastewater. In the present study, we observed the N retention and losses in a running prototype of decoupled AS with Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum) over 24 days. N losses amounted to 32.5% of feed N input and were observed in the recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) of the AS. Fish retained 21.1% of N input while 25.2% of N input accumulated in the RAS water. About 14.1% of the loss of N was caused probably by anaerobic denitrification processes in the lamellar settler (LS). In addition, 18.4% of N input was discharged during the three cleanings of LS. In the hydroponic unit of the AS that has been due to space limitations much smaller than an optimized AS could be (only about 20% of the optimal size relative to fish biomass), the tomato plants, including fruits, leaves, and stems, recovered 3.1% of N input with water uptake of 1700 L. The fish culture management, system design, and environmental management in the greenhouse affect the N recovery in the decoupled AS.
This article describes and contrasts the public health response to two human rabies cases: one organ recipient diagnosed within days of symptom onset and the transplant donor who was diagnosed 18 months post‐symptom onset. In response to an organ‐transplant‐related rabies case diagnosed in 2013, organ donor and recipient investigations were conducted by multiple public health agencies. Persons with potential exposure to infectious patient materials were assessed for rabies virus exposure. An exposure investigation was conducted to determine the source of the organ donor's infection. Over 100 persons from more than 20 agencies spent over 2700 h conducting contact investigations in healthcare, military and community settings. The 564 persons assessed include 417 healthcare workers [5.8% recommended for post‐exposure prophylaxis (PEP)], 96 community contacts (15.6% recommended for PEP), 30 autopsy personnel (50% recommended for PEP), and 21 other persons (4.8% recommended for PEP). Donor contacts represented 188 assessed with 20.2% recommended for PEP, compared with 5.6% of 306 recipient contacts recommended for PEP. Human rabies cases result in substantial use of public health and medical resources, especially when diagnosis is delayed. Although rare, clinicians should consider rabies in cases of encephalitis of unexplained aetiology, particularly for cases that may result in organ donation. 相似文献
Twentieth-century psychologists have been pessimistic about teaching reasoning, prevailing opinion suggesting that people may possess only domain-specific rules, rather than abstract rules; this would mean that training a rule in one domain would not produce generalization to other domains. Alternatively, it was thought that people might possess abstract rules (such as logical ones) but that these are induced developmentally through self-discovery methods and cannot be trained. Research suggests a much more optimistic view: even brief formal training in inferential rules may enhance their use for reasoning about everyday life events. Previous theorists may have been mistaken about trainability, in part because they misidentified the kind of rules that people use naturally. 相似文献