漳河水库入库洪水抗误差预报方案

漳河水库由观音寺水库和鸡公尖水库通过半天然明槽相互连通组成，因受库水位观测、明槽输水计算、动库容计算误差等的复杂影响，以往多次建立的洪水预报方案均未达到可供应用的水平。在分析漳河水库入库洪水误差产生特点的基础上，通过建立抗误差产汇流预报模型和自适应实时校正技术，使漳河水库洪水预报方案平均确定性系数达91.09%，洪峰合格率达100%，峰现时间合格率达90.91%；观音寺水库洪水预报方案的平均确定性系数达90.63%，洪峰合格率达100%，峰现时间合格率达100%，终于建立了达到甲等水平的漳河水库洪水预报应用方案。     

A prospective study on canine hip dysplasia and growth in a cohort of four large breeds in Norway (1998-2001)

The study-objective was to measure the effect of weight and growth related parameters on the risk of development of Canine Hip Dysplasia (CHD). The hypothesis was that heavy and fast growing dogs of large sized breeds were at increased risk of development of CHD compared to lighter and slower growing dogs. A prospective cohort study was conducted among dogs of four large breeds: Newfoundland (NF), Leonberger (LEO), Labrador retriever (LR), and Irish wolfhound (IW). The dogs were privately owned with individualized nutrition and environment, and they were followed from birth and throughout the growth period until the official screening for CHD was performed. The study sample consisted of 501 dogs from 103 litters, with the breed distribution 125 NF, 180 LEO, 133 LR, and 63 IW. Because the dogs were clustered in litters a multivariable random effects logistic regression model was used to assess statistically significant growth-related risk factors for CHD. The estimated incidence risk of CHD was 36% in NF, 25% in LEO, 20% in LR, and 10% in IW. Based upon the final multilevel model it appears that the odds of CHD among both LR and IW (odds ratio (OR) 0.22) are about one-fifth of the odds for NF. The odds for LEO (OR 0.60) are not significantly different from NF. There appeared to be an inverse relationship between body weight at 3 months of age and odds of CHD, with an OR of 0.89 (P=0.044). The degree of clustering at the litter-level was high (22.6%) and highly significant (P<0.001). Findings failed to support the hypothesis that heavy and fast growing dogs from four large sized breeds were at increased risk for development of CHD. There might be other unmeasured environmental risk factors for CHD in this cohort of dogs, although the contribution of the genetic variance to the litter-level clustering also needs further investigation.     

The effect of footrot on body weight and wool growth of sheep

Body weight and traits associated with production of wool were measured over a 2-year period between 1985 and 1987 in south-western New South Wales in a flock of Merino wethers experimentally infected with footrot. The disease was allowed to spread freely amongst 150 of the flock but kept at very low prevalence in the remaining 50 by preventive footbathing during transmission periods. Severe, underrunning footrot had a significant adverse effect on body weight, for each year of the trial. Body weight was most severely reduced at times of the year when footrot was spreading among animals and lesions were severe. The mean body weight of the infected group at the end of the 2 years of observation was 7.3 kg (11.6%) below that of the control group. Footrot also depressed wool growth, with the mean clean fleece weight of the infected group being 0.4 kg (8%) lighter than that of the controls at each of the 2 annual shearings. There were no consistent differences between the groups for the other wool characteristics measured.     

Studies on Immunological Effect and Immunological Mechanism Avian Encephalomyelitis Oil Emulsion Inactivated Vaccine

Oil emulsion inactivated vaccine was prepared by susceptible embryos, with different strains of AEV. Four groups of normal chickens of 2 - 7 days of age were given injections for immunization, respectively. Another group was used as control. This study was expected to evaluate the immunological effect and discuss the immunological mechanism by means of five different experiments, i.e. the agar-gel precipitin test,the isolation of lymphokine, the isolation, purification and analysis of blood serum IgG, embryo-susceptibility test, and clinical and pathological examination. The results of these experiments indicated that oil emulsion inactivated vaccine is safe and effective. The chickens were normal when inoculated with AE strong virus after immunity at 4 and 37 weeks. Immunological mechanism is that the humoral immunity played an important role and celluar immunity exists, but it is not important in the process of the resistance to AEV.     

The effect of radiological hip dysplasia and breed on survival in a prospective cohort study of four large dog breeds followed over a 10 year period

The aim of the study was to measure the effect of radiological hip and elbow dysplasia status and breed on overall survival in a cohort of four large dog breeds in Norway. Privately owned dogs of the Newfoundland (NF), Labrador Retriever (LR), Leonberger (LEO), and Irish Wolfhound (IW) breeds were followed prospectively from birth to 10 years of age. The age of death/euthanasia was registered. A total of 501 dogs from 103 litters were enrolled. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to describe breed differences in survival times. The effects of radiological hip and elbow dysplasia status as well as breed were assessed using a Cox proportional hazards model. The variables 'sex' and 'living region' were explored as potential confounders. Among LRs, 60.2% of the dogs were still alive at 10 years of age, and the corresponding figures for NFs, LEOs, and IWs were 28.8%, 16.11%, and 6.4%, respectively. Radiological hip dysplasia status and breed were found to influence overall survival. Two different time-varying effects were observed in that with the IW the hazard of death increased linearly through time, while the effect of severe radiological hip dysplasia decreased logarithmically with time. Location influenced the death hazard and dogs living in suburban areas or cities had longer mean time to death and a lower hazard compared to dogs living in the countryside. Radiological elbow dysplasia status was not found to have an effect on overall survival.     

策勒黑羊选育现状及其对策

策勒黑羊是以生产羔皮为主的多胎优良地方品种,深受当地群众的喜爱。作者从育种的角度阐述了策勒黑羊选育现状及存在的问题,提出了今后的选育方向和对策。     

Impacts of parasites on marine survival of Atlantic salmon: a meta‐analysis

Parasites can, in theory, have large impacts on the survival of fish populations. One method to evaluate such impacts on anadromous species is to apply manipulative field experiments in which parallel groups of antiparasitically treated and non‐treated fish are simultaneously released and then subsequently recaptured as returning adults. A systematic review and meta‐analysis on all such Norwegian studies on Salmo salar provided a data set for the time period 1996 to 2011 on 118 release groups comprising 657 624 fish released and 3989 recaptured. The overall risk ratio (RR) was estimated to be 1.18 (95% CI: 1.07–1.30). The effect varied strongly between groups, (Higgins I² = 40.1%). Over 70% of this heterogeneity could be explained by the release location, time period and baseline survival. The most important predictor variable was baseline survival. In groups with low recapture in the control group (low baseline survival), the effect of treatment was high (RR = 1.7), while in groups with high recapture in the control group (high baseline survival), there was no effect of treatment (RR ~ 1.00). The most prevalent parasite in the region affected by the drugs administered was Lepeophtheirus salmonis. Hence, the meta‐analysis supports the hypothesis that L. salmonis contributes to the mortality of S. salar during outward migration. However, the effect of treatment was not consistent, but was evidently strongly modulated by other risk factors. The results suggest that the population‐level effects of parasites cannot be estimated independently of other factors affecting the marine survival of S. salar.