Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.     

Introducing spatial grazing impacts into the prediction of moorland vegetation dynamics

Grazing by large herbivores is a major determinant of vegetation dynamics in many semi-natural ecosystems, including the replacement of heather moorland by rough grassland in the British uplands. Herbivore foraging is influenced by vegetation patterns and, in turn, their grazing drives vegetation dynamics. Although vegetation impacts are local, spatially heterogeneous local impacts can have different consequences as would the same impacts distributed uniformly. We constructed a simulation model of the spatial effects of grazing by sheep on the vegetation dynamics of heather moorland, a vegetation community of international conservation importance in the UK. The model comprised three sub-models to predict (1) annual average heather utilisation, (2) spatial variation in heather utilisation (higher near the edge of grass patches) and (3) competition between heather and grass. Here we compare the predicted heather utilisation and vegetation dynamics of the spatial model, relative to those of a non-spatial model. The spatial model resulted in a reduced loss of heather cover for a given sheep stocking rate. The model demonstrates how spatial interactions between large herbivores and their forage drive vegetation dynamics, leading to changes in community structure and composition. Indeed, omitting spatial effects in grazing models may lead to inaccurate predictions. We have shown that ecosystem modelling, based around an iterative dialogue between developers and experienced researchers, has the potential to make a substantial contribution towards the conservation and management of vulnerable landscapes. Combining modelling with experimental studies will facilitate progress towards understanding long-term vegetation/herbivore dynamics.     

Evaluation of peripheral lymphoreticular biopsy techniques and their clinical side effects in sheep

Tissue samples were collected postmortem from 126 sheep at five lymphoreticular sites by different techniques. The three most successful combinations of sites and techniques were: the third eyelids, using a forceps and scissors, which provided a mean (se) of 5.32 (0.70) lymphoid follicles per 5 microm tissue section, a mandibular lymph node, using a Biopty gun, which gave 1.19 (0.26) lymphoid follicles per 5 microm tissue section, and tonsil, using a biopsy forceps, which gave 1.14 (0.27) lymphoid follicles per 5 microm tissue section. These three techniques were repeated once a month for five months on five sheep under general anaesthesia, and their clinical effects were compared with five control sheep which were restrained and anaesthetised in the same way but from which no biopsies were taken. Most lymphoid follicles (3.47 [0.58] per 5 pm tissue section) were obtained by using the third eyelid biopsy technique. There were no clinical side effects associated with the biopsy procedure. There were increases in the plasma concentration of cortisol in all the animals, suggesting that the restraint and anaesthesia were more stressful than the biopsy procedure.     

Temporal patterns and quantification of excretion of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis in sheep with Johne's disease

OBJECTIVES: To determine the frequency of excretion of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis in Merino sheep with Johne's disease and to quantify excretion in a group of Merino sheep. DESIGN: A pen and laboratory experiment. PROCEDURE: Seven sheep selected from an affected flock on the basis of acid-fast bacilli in the sheep's faeces were housed and total daily faecal output was collected, weighed and subjected to culture for M avium subsp paratuberculosis. An end-point titration method was used to enumerate viable M avium subsp paratuberculosis in a 15 day pooled sample from five sheep that had acid-fast bacilli in their faeces while housed. RESULTS: Four sheep with subclinical multibacillary Johne's disease excreted M avium subsp paratuberculosis each day for 11 days of cultural observation. A further three sheep were intermittent excreters but lacked other evidence of infection with M avium subsp paratuberculosis. The average number of viable bacteria excreted was 1.09 x 10(8) per gram of faeces while total daily excretion was 8.36 x 10(10) viable M avium subsp paratuberculosis per sheep. Examination of faecal smears stained with Ziehl Neelsen was an unreliable means of assessing daily excretion in individual animals except in those with severe lesions. CONCLUSION: Excretion of M avium subsp paratuberculosis in Merino sheep with multibacillary Johne's disease occurred daily, proving that environmental contamination can be continuous on farms with endemic ovine Johne's disease. Faecal culture is a useful method for detecting infection as it does not appear to be affected by the timing of collection of a sample from sheep with multibacillary disease however, to maximise the sensitivity of disease surveillance using faecal culture, sampling rates should be adjusted to take account of the proportions of multibacillary and paucibacillary cases.     

Effects of repeat fenbendazole treatment in dairy calves with giardiosis on cyst excretion, clinical signs and production

In this 90-day study, 60 male Holstein dairy calves were experimentally infected with Giardia duodenalis. Calves were randomly blocked by weight into treatment (N=30) and placebo (N=30) groups. Beginning on study Day 0, calves in the treatment group were administered an oral dose of 5mg/kg of fenbendazole once daily for three consecutive days. Calves in the placebo group received a daily oral treatment of 5 ml of saline for 3 days. These treatments were repeated on Days 30 and 60 of the study. Fecal samples were collected from calves once per week and examined for the presence of Giardia cysts. Calves were monitored daily for clinical signs of intestinal disease and all episodes of diarrhea recorded. Calves were weighed once per week and total feed intake, on a dry matter basis, was calculated daily. Following each treatment, the number of calves shedding Giardia cysts in the fenbendazole group was reduced (p<0.001) compared to the saline group. Also, calves in the fenbendazole group had fewer cysts (p<0.05) detected in their feces following treatment compared with calves that received saline. Within 2 weeks post treatment, the number of infected animals and fecal Giardia cysts returned to placebo levels. This pattern of reinfection was consistent after every treatment period. Calves receiving fenbendazole had fewer total days with diarrhea (p<0.01) and the average number of days each calf had diarrhea was reduced (p<0.05), compared to the placebo group. There were no differences in mean body weight, average daily gain, or feed intake between the treatment or placebo groups. This study demonstrates that fenbendazole is an effective treatment for giardiosis, resulting in a clinical benefit and reducing the number of infective cysts shed by calves. However, this treatment regime had no impact on production parameters and reinfection occurred rapidly in these calves.     

Primary pulmonary artery leiomyosarcoma in an adult dog

A 7-year-old neutered female English Setter presented with syncope, anemia, and weight loss. Clinical examination revealed a systolic murmur and echocardiography demonstrated a mass on the pulmonic valve. Postmortem examination confirmed the presence of a pulmonic valve mass that extended along the pulmonary trunk and into the left pulmonary artery. Multiple pale nodules were observed in the right lung. Microscopic examinations of the pulmonary artery mass and the lung nodules revealed a pleomorphic population of spindle cells often arranged in broad bands containing strap-like nuclei and eosinophilic cytoplasm devoid of cross striations. The neoplastic cells expressed vimentin and alpha-smooth muscle actin but did not express desmin, CD31, factor VIII, or S100. The presentation, histological features, immunocytochemical profiles, and behavior of this tumor were indicative of a primary pulmonary artery leiomyosarcoma with lung metastasis.