Confirmation of spatial patterns and temperature effects in Bluetongue virus serotype-8 transmission in NW-Europe from the 2007 reported case data

Two separate analyses were carried out to understand the epidemiology of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in 2007 in North West Europe: First, the temporal change in transmission rates was compared to the evolution of temperature during that season. Second, we evaluated the spatio-temporal dynamics of newly reported outbreaks, to estimate a spatial transmission kernel. For both analyses, the approach as used before in analysing the 2006 BTV-8 epidemic had to be adapted in order to take into account the fact that the 2007 epidemic was not a newly arising epidemic, but one advancing from whereto it had already spread in 2006. We found that within the area already affected by the 2006 outbreak, the pattern of newly infected farms in 2007 cannot be explained by between-farm transmission, but rather by local re-emergence of the virus throughout that region. This indicates that persistence through winter was ubiquitous for BTV-8. Just like in 2006, we also found that the temperature at which the infection starts to spread lies close to 15 °C. Finally, we found that the shape of the transmission kernel is in line with the one from the 2006 epidemic. In conclusion, despite the substantial differences between 2006 and 2007 in temperature patterns (2006 featured a heat wave in July, whereas 2007 was more regular) and spatial epidemic extent, both the minimum temperature required for transmission and the transmission kernel were similar to those estimated for the 2006 outbreak, indicating that they are robust properties, suitable for extrapolation to other years and similar regions.     

Atmospheric carbon injection linked to end-Triassic mass extinction

The end-Triassic mass extinction (~201.4 million years ago), marked by terrestrial ecosystem turnover and up to ~50% loss in marine biodiversity, has been attributed to intensified volcanic activity during the break-up of Pangaea. Here, we present compound-specific carbon-isotope data of long-chain n-alkanes derived from waxes of land plants, showing a ~8.5 per mil negative excursion, coincident with the extinction interval. These data indicate strong carbon-13 depletion of the end-Triassic atmosphere, within only 10,000 to 20,000 years. The magnitude and rate of this carbon-cycle disruption can be explained by the injection of at least ~12 × 10(3) gigatons of isotopically depleted carbon as methane into the atmosphere. Concurrent vegetation changes reflect strong warming and an enhanced hydrological cycle. Hence, end-Triassic events are robustly linked to methane-derived massive carbon release and associated climate change.     

Applying weather index insurance to agricultural pest and disease risks

In this paper, we explore the application of weather index insurance to plant pest and disease management strategies using two distinct models: (1) insuring crop loss due to disease incidence (“Crop Insurance”) and (2) insuring the use of pesticides (“Pesticide Insurance”). We find that despite the seeming ease of applying weather-based pest incidence models to an insurance product, insuring plant disease incidence models is presently unsuitable for the insurance market for both scientific and behavioral reasons. However, derivative-like applications of weather index insurance to insure pesticide use offer a means to introduce financial leverage into pesticide usage decisions. Risk management with weather index insurance would thus function as a complement to existing risk management strategies using pesticides, and offer a market-based mechanism for pesticide abatement. We conclude that more interdisciplinary collaboration is needed to develop weather index insurance for remuneration of losses due to plant pests and diseases, but weather index insurance offers a potential mechanism to reduce inefficiencies and negative externalities in agricultural markets if pesticide expenditures are insured instead of crop losses.     

Effect of tree species on carbon stocks in forest floor and mineral soil and implications for soil carbon inventories

Forest soil organic carbon (SOC) and forest floor carbon (FFC) stocks are highly variable. The sampling effort required to assess SOC and FFC stocks is therefore large, resulting in limited sampling and poor estimates of the size, spatial distribution, and changes in SOC and FFC stocks in many countries. Forest SOC and FFC stocks are influenced by tree species. Therefore, quantification of the effect of tree species on carbon stocks combined with spatial information on tree species distribution could improve insight into the spatial distribution of forest carbon stocks.We present a study on the effect of tree species on FFC and SOC stock for a forest in the Netherlands and evaluate how this information could be used for inventory improvement. We assessed FFC and SOC stocks in stands of beech (Fagus sylvatica), Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), oak (Quercus robur) and larch (Larix kaempferi).FFC and SOC stocks differed between a number of species. FFC stocks varied between 11.1 Mg C ha⁻¹ (beech) and 29.6 Mg C ha⁻¹ (larch). SOC stocks varied between 53.3 Mg C ha⁻¹ (beech) and 97.1 Mg C ha⁻¹ (larch). At managed locations, carbon stocks were lower than at unmanaged locations. The Dutch carbon inventory currently overestimates FFC stocks. Differences in carbon stocks between conifer and broadleaf forests were significant enough to consider them relevant for the Dutch system for carbon inventory.     

Europe's terrestrial biosphere absorbs 7 to 12% of European anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Most inverse atmospheric models report considerable uptake of carbon dioxide in Europe's terrestrial biosphere. In contrast, carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems increase at a much smaller rate, with carbon gains in forests and grassland soils almost being offset by carbon losses from cropland and peat soils. Accounting for non-carbon dioxide carbon transfers that are not detected by the atmospheric models and for carbon dioxide fluxes bypassing the ecosystem carbon stocks considerably reduces the gap between the small carbon-stock changes and the larger carbon dioxide uptake estimated by atmospheric models. The remaining difference could be because of missing components in the stock-change approach, as well as the large uncertainty in both methods. With the use of the corrected atmosphere- and land-based estimates as a dual constraint, we estimate a net carbon sink between 135 and 205 teragrams per year in Europe's terrestrial biosphere, the equivalent of 7 to 12% of the 1995 anthropogenic carbon emissions.     

Quantitative analysis of transmission parameters for bluetongue virus serotype 8 in Western Europe in 2006

ABSTRACT: The recent bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Western Europe struck hard. Controlling the infection was difficult and a good and safe vaccine was not available until the spring of 2008. Little was known regarding BTV transmission in Western Europe or the efficacy of control measures. Quantitative details on transmission are essential to assess the potential and efficacy of such measures.To quantify virus transmission between herds, a temporal and a spatio-temporal analysis were applied to data on reported infected herds in 2006. We calculated the basic reproduction number between herds (Rh: expected number of new infections, generated by one initial infected herd in a susceptible environment). It was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that of an infection with Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in The Netherlands, e.g. around 4. We concluded that an average day temperature of at least 15°C is required for BTV-8 transmission between herds in Western Europe. A few degrees increase in temperature is found to lead to a major increase in BTV-8 transmission.We also found that the applied disease control (spatial zones based on 20 km radius restricting animal transport to outside regions) led to a spatial transmission pattern of BTV-8, with 85% of transmission restricted to a 20 km range. This 20 km equals the scale of the protection zones. We concluded that free animal movement led to substantial faster spread of the BTV-8 epidemic over space as compared to a situation with animal movement restrictions.