Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Echinococcus multilocularis (Cestoda,Taeniidae) in Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in northern Belgium

The first record of the tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis (Cestoda, Taeniidae) in Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in northern Belgium is described. Between 1996 and 1999, 237 dead foxes were examined for the presence of this tapeworm using the intestinal scraping technique. Four foxes (1.7%) were found to be infected with E. multilocularis and showed medium to very high parasitic burdens. Three infected foxes originated from the south of the study area and the fourth animal came from the north of the study area near the border with The Netherlands. These findings are discussed in relation to the high endemicity of E. multilocularis in southern Belgium and to the increased distribution of the Red fox (V. vulpes) in northern Belgium during the last two decades.     

Minimum space allowance for transportation of swine by road

Space allowance for animals in transit is a consistent concern in many countries that are developing codes of practice and regulations to assure humane treatment of food producing animals. The minimum space allowance requirements for a broad size range of swine in transit has not been well described or scientifically substantiated. A maximal loading pressure recommendation for pigs weighing from 5 to 250 kg was derived by a consultative process involving the swine transportation industry, animal welfare groups, and a literature review. The recommended maximal loading pressure under ideal conditions for swine loaded in groups can be described as a hoerl model y = (37.53)(0.9969)w(W0.5008), where y = loading pressure in kg body weight/m2 and W = average animal body weight in kilograms.     

Immunisation against Theileria parva in eastern Zambia: influence of maternal antibodies and demonstration of the carrier status

Immunisation of calves by the infection and treatment method (I & T) has been extensively used in the eastern province of Zambia to control East Coast fever (ECF), a protozoan tick-borne disease. This paper presents the results of a field longitudinal study, which included a total of 148 Angoni calves. After immunisation against ECF, they were monitored for a full rainy season, coinciding with the main peak of activity of the vector of Theileria parva, the tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus. Dysimmunisation (acute reaction generated by I & T immunisation), seroconversion and mortality are among the parameters recorded. The effect of maternal antibodies on these parameters was analysed and also studied in experimental conditions on two calves. Before immunisation, young calves had a higher seroprevalence than older animals (maternal antibodies) but their post-immunisation seroprevalence was lower. There was no evidence that their immunoprotection was weaker but this indicates that the post-immunisation seroconversion is probably not a reliable tool to monitor the efficacy of calf immunisation. The carrier state of cattle after immunisation was investigated in experimental conditions on three bovines whereas in the field, the infection prevalence in the ticks was estimated using the relation between the tick burden and the T. parva contacts with the calves. The ability of larval and nymphal R. appendiculatus ticks to pick-up T. parva from carriers and to transmit it to na?ve animals after moulting was assessed. It was found that both instars are able to transmit clinical and lethal ECF but that the prevalence of T. parva infection in nymphs is much lower than in adults, confirming the primary role of adults in the transmission of ECF in endemic conditions. Similar results were obtained from the field whereby the ECF peak corresponds with the peak of adult R. appendiculatus activity. The infection prevalence in the ticks was however much lower in the field than in experimental conditions indicating that an important proportion of them feed on alternative hosts. Old ticks seemed to have lost part of their infectivity.     

Transmission of Theileriosis in the Traditional Farming Sector in the Southern Province of Zambia during 1995–1996

The incidence of first contact with the protozoan Theileria parva was determined in three traditional cattle herds in the Southern Province of Zambia in 1995 and 1996. The majority of first contacts occurred during the dry season in June, July and August, at a time of nymphal activity and in the absence of Rhipicephalus appendiculatus adults, indicating that larva to nymph transmission plays a more prominent role than nymph to adult transmission under the prevailing conditions.     

Land Use – Land Cover Conversion, Regeneration and Degradation in the High Elevation Bolivian Andes

Regional land-cover change affects biodiversity, hydrology, and biogeochemical cycles at local, watershed, and landscape scales. Developing countries are experiencing rapid land cover change, but assessment is often restricted by limited financial resources, accessibility, and historical data. The assessment of regional land cover patterns is often the first step in developing conservation and management plans. This study used remotely sensed land cover and topographic data (Landsat and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission), supervised classification techniques, and spectral mixture analysis to characterize current landscape patterns and quantify land cover change from 1985 to 2003 in the Altiplano (2535–4671 m) and Intermediate Valley (Mountain) (1491–4623 m) physiographic zones in the Southeastern Bolivian Andes. Current land cover was mapped into six classes with an overall accuracy of 88% using traditional classification techniques and limited field data. The land cover change analysis showed that extensive deforestation, desertification, and agricultural expansion at a regional scale occurred in the last 20 years (17.3% of the Mountain Zone and 7.2% of the Altiplano). Spectral mixture analysis (SMA) indicated that communal rangeland degradation has also occurred, with increases in soil and non-photosynthetic vegetation fractions in most cover classes. SMA also identified local areas with intensive management activities that are changing differently from the overall region (e.g., localized areas of increased green vegetation). This indicates that actions of local communities, governments, and environmental managers can moderate the potentially severe future changes implied by the results of this study.     

T-shaped malformation of the ventral colon in a Thoroughbred filly with colic

A 4-month-old Thoroughbred filly presented for abdominal pain was diagnosed with a T-shaped malformation of the ventral colon at exploratory laparotomy. Following resection and anastomosis of the large colon, no further episodes of abdominal pain occurred during a 12-month follow-up. Acute dehiscence of the linea alba occurred as a complication of the initial laparotomy, but was successfully managed following additional surgical repair. T-shaped malformation of the ventral colon has not previously been reported and is considered a congenital malformation of mesocolon formation.