Environmental effects on recruitment and productivity of Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus with recommendations for management

We compared a wide range of environmental data with measures of recruitment and stock production for Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus to examine factors potentially responsible for fishery regimes (periods of high or low recruitment and productivity). Environmental factors fall into two groups based on principal component analyses. The first principal component group was determined by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index and was dominated by variables associated with the Southern Oscillation Index and Kuroshio Sverdrup transport. The second was led by the Arctic Oscillation and dominated by variables associated with Kuroshio geostrophic transport. Instantaneous surplus production rates (ISPR) and log recruitment residuals (LNRR) changed within several years of environmental regime shifts and then stabilized due, we hypothesize, to rapid changes in carrying capacity and relaxation of density dependent effects. Like ISPR, LNRR appears more useful than fluctuation in commercial catch data for identifying the onset of fishery regime shifts. The extended Ricker models indicate spawning stock biomass and sea surface temperatures (SST) affect recruitment of sardine while spawning stock biomass, SST and sardine biomass affect recruitment of chub mackerel. Environmental conditions were favorable for sardine during 1969–87 and unfavorable during 1951–67 and after 1988. There were apparent shifts from favorable to unfavorable conditions for chub mackerel during 1976–77 and 1985–88, and from unfavorable to favorable during 1969–70 and 1988–92. Environmental effects on recruitment and surplus production are important but fishing effects are also influential. For example, chub mackerel may have shifted into a new favorable fishery regime in 1992 if fishing mortality had been lower. We suggest that managers consider to shift fishing effort in response to the changing stock productivity, and protect strong year classes by which we may detect new favorable regimes.     

Distribution patterns of leptocephali in the Kuroshio–Oyashio transitional region of the western North Pacific

Leptocephalus assemblages and distribution patterns were studied in the Kuroshio–Oyashio transitional region of the western North Pacific. A total of 479 leptocephali, representing at least 21 species (types) including eight undescribed types, were collected during a cruise of the T/V Hokuho Maru from 8 to 30 May 2002. The most abundant leptocephali were the congrids Gnathophis nystromi nystromi and Gnathophis nystromi ginanago. The assemblages at each station were clustered into four groups (one group in the Kuroshio region and three in the transition zone) using the ordination and the fuzzy c‐means method based on species composition similarities between stations. Each leptocephalus species was also clustered by the same method into one of three groups. The first group had the greatest numbers of species and mainly occurred at the station group in the Kuroshio region, sharing a similar distribution to G. n. nystromi. The second group had the greatest abundance, especially in the transition zone, but contained only one species, G. n. ginanago, which also occurred at all stations. Moreover discrimination of station groups in the transition zone corresponded well with the assemblage pattern of this species group. The last species group comprised rare and low abundance species. Most leptocephali in the study area were reported from the Kuroshio upstream region, so the discrimination of leptocephali assemblages in the study area may reflect their different ecology. Furthermore, the analytical methods used in this study yielded more meaningful and clearer groups than the other usual methods, validating application of this analysis to complex areas such as the transition zone.     

Spatial distribution of the Japanese common squid, Todarodes pacificus, during its northward migration in the western North Pacific Ocean

The spatial distribution of Todarodes pacificus in and near the Kuroshio/Oyashio Transition Zone during its northward migration was examined by comparative surveys using two types of mid‐water trawl net and supplementary squid jigging from June to July 2000. The vertical and horizontal distribution patterns varied for different body sizes in relation to the oceanographic structure. Todarodes pacificus of 1–20 cm dorsal mantle length (ML) were widely distributed from the coastal waters of Japan to near 162°E longitude, probably due to transport by the Kuroshio Extension (KE). Todarodes pacificus smaller than 10 cm ML were mainly distributed in temperate surface layers at sea surface temperatures (SSTs) >15°C near the KE meander probably because of their poor tolerance to lower temperatures and limited swimming ability. Squid of 10–15 cm ML were distributed in the offshore waters of 10–15°C SST and in the coastal waters of northern Honshu, and underwent diel vertical migrations between the sea surface at night and deeper layers during the daytime. Squid larger than 15 cm ML were distributed in the coastal feeding grounds of northern Honshu and Hokkaido until they began their southward spawning migration. They also underwent diel vertical migrations, but remained deeper at night than the squid of 10–15 cm ML; this migration pattern closely matched that of their main prey such as euphausiids. We concluded that as T. pacificus grow, they shift their distribution range from the temperate surface layer around the KE toward the colder deeper layers, above 5°C, in the Oyashio and coastal areas.     

Recovery policy for chub mackerel stock using recruitment-per-spawning

The stock abundance of chub mackerel ( Scomber japonicus ) in the Pacific Ocean off Japan declined in the 1980s and remained at low levels through the 1990s. There were recruitment successes in 1992 and 1996. However, the cohorts born in these years were heavily fished before the age of maturity and chub mackerel has not begun to recover. To investigate the effects of conserving immature fish, we created four recovery policies: (i) policy 0, actual fishing mortality during the 1990s; (ii) policy 1, conserve strong year classes; (iii) policy 2, apply the average fishing mortality in the 1970s–1980s after 1992; and (iv) policy 3, a 55% reduction of the mortality adopted by policy 2. Policy 3 was considered to be the best in terms of final stock abundance and total catch from 1992 to 1999. We also calculate the future projection of stock and catch under these three policies as well as using average fishing mortality from 1993 to 1999. Using average fishing mortality from 1993 to 1999, the stock will not be recovered within the next 20 years. Even under the best policy, the risk that the final stock is not recovered to 3 million tons within the next 10 years is 40%.