Constrained by aliens,shifting landscape,or poor water quality? Factors affecting the persistence of amphibians in an urban pond network

1. Freshwater communities and especially pond‐breeding amphibians are extremely vulnerable to land‐use change, alien species introductions and the use of pesticides or other toxic chemicals, as reflected in their worldwide decline. Effective conservation and management of ponds requires a better understanding of the biotic and abiotic factors that shape diversity patterns and species distribution, especially in cases of habitat loss
2. The present study aimed to reveal and classify which pond and landscape characteristics are the most important determinants for the occurrence patterns of amphibian species as well as for the overall amphibian species richness in an urban pond network. To achieve this aim, 17 biotic and abiotic variables were measured for 61 ponds and the dataset was analysed by means of a machine‐learning approach, suitability indices and co‐occurrence modelling
3. The highest probability of Triturus macedonicus occurrence was found at fishless artificial and semi‐natural ponds. The persistence of Lissotriton graecus in ponds was predicted by high pond connectivity and the absence of fish reflecting the species dispersive potential. Pelophylax kurtmuelleri showed a higher probability of occurrence with increased pond connectivity and macrophyte cover.
4. Amphibian species richness was higher in fishless ponds with well‐oxygenated waters located in sites with a low to intermediate road density network. Ponds categorized as ‘average’ in terms of newt suitability were more frequently inhabited by fish than Triturus macedonicus. Alien fish species showed negative associations with both newt species, while both newt species showed a positive association between them.
5. The results support the view that conserving a greater number of water bodies with increased landscape connectivity and without any fish presence could provide amphibian species with alternative habitat choices, especially in sites with human pressure where pond stability is at stake owing to continuous landscape changes.