Effects of temperature, wind and spawning stock biomass on recruitment of Arcto-Norwegian cod

Sea temperature has earlier been shown to have a large influence on the recruitment of Arcto-Norwegian cod, Gadus morhua. We here hypothesize that this linkage is partly due to the direct effect of temperature on larval and juvenile growth. Secondly, temperature acts as a proxy for both biotic and abiotic factors influencing recruitment. Indices of abundance of early juvenile cod (2–3 months old), 0-group cod (4–5 months old) and 3-year-old cod are analysed in more detail against the environmental temperature, wind stress components, wind-induced turbulent energy and the spawning stock biomass. To deal with autocorrelation, non-stationar-time and nun-normality, which complicate a statistical time series analysis, randomization and Box-Jenkins methods are applied. In addition to the important effect of high sea temperature during the early life stage in forming strong year classes, the results show that the spawning stock biomass is nearly as important. Also, alongshore southerly wind stress anomalies during the period of pelagic drift (from April through summer) and offshore wind stress anomalies during egg and early larval stages (in April) act favourably on recruitment. The beneficial effect of southerly wind anomalies could he linked partly to high temperature, but the flux of zooplankton-rich water from the Norwegian Sea into the feeding areas of the Barents Sea may also be increased. The favourable influence of offshore winds in April is less predominant and causal links are also less clear; possible explanations for this might be increased offshore spreading of eggs and early larvae, resulting in reduced risk of predation, and increased compensation inflow of intermediate Norwegian Sea water which, in this restricted period of time, has a high concentration of spawning copepods suitable as prey for the developing cod larvae.     

Changes in spawning stock structure strengthen the link between climate and recruitment in a heavily fished cod (Gadus morhua) stock

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is one of the commercially most important fish species in the North Atlantic and plays a central role in several ecosystems. Fishing pressure has been heavy over a prolonged period and the recent decades have shown dramatic decline in abundance of many stocks. The Arcto‐Norwegian (or North‐east Arctic) cod stock in the Barents Sea is now the largest stock of Atlantic cod. Recruitment to this stock has varied extensively during the last 60 yr. There is evidence for fluctuations in climate, particularly sea temperature, being a main cause for this variability, higher temperatures being favourable for survival throughout the critical early life stages. Our studies of time series present compelling evidence for a strengthening of the climate–cod recruitment link during the last decades. We suggest this is an effect of the age and length composition of the spawning stock having changed distinctly. The age of the average spawner has decreased by more than 3 yr from between 10 and 11 in the late 1940s to 7–8 in the 1990s, average length from just above 90 cm to around 80 cm. The number of age classes contributing to the spawning stock has also decreased, while the number of length groups present increased slightly. Significant decrease in age of spawners has frequently been described for other heavily fished stocks worldwide. We therefore find it likely that the proposed mechanism of increased influence of climate on recruitment through changes in the spawning stock age and size composition is of a general nature and might be found in other systems.