Predicting adoption of double cropping in paddy fields of northern Iran: a comparison of statistical methods

Factors affecting the adoption of double cropping were explored in rice farms of Fouman County of Guilan Province in northern Iran using artificial neural networks (ANNs), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and logistic regression (LGR). Eleven factors (age, education, occupation, family size, type of farm ownership, distance to the agricultural service center, attending agricultural extension courses, use of financial resources and bank loans, number of domestic animals, area under cultivation, and social participation) were examined. An additional objective was to compare the ability of the three models in predicting the adoption of double cropping. ANNs showed an overall predictive power of 89.8%. LDA showed an overall predictive power of 83.2%, with seven of the eleven independent variables being effective on the adoption of double cropping. LGR indicated an overall predictive power of 87.6%, with eight of the eleven independent variables being effective on the adoption of double-rice cropping. ANNs showed higher power than LGR and LDA in predicting the adoption of double cropping. Based on all three methods used for analysis, the most important independent variables were social participation and area under cultivation (positive factors) as well as distance to the agricultural service center and family members (negative factors). Establishment of cooperatives or other kinds of farmers’ associations to foster social participation could motivate adoption of double cropping, particularly among small-scale farmers. To increase agricultural services, more local centers should be created in rural areas. The government should promote double cropping through effective incentives and technology transfer to small-scale farmers.     

Plant nutrient uptake and potato yield response to banded and broadcast nitrogen

The response of potato plants to banding and broadcasting of N was evaluated under sprinkler irrigation utilizing well water containing 20 to 24 ppm NO₃-N. A potato crop was grown for three consecutive years on a Wasco sandy loam soil at rates of 67, 134, 202, and 269 kg N/ha, as (NH₄)₂SO₄. At each rate of N, 58 kg P/ha as superphosphate, and 112 kg K/ha as K₂SO₄, were included. Differences in PO₄-P or K concentrations in petiole tissue were minimal with no consistant differences in NO₃-N concentration whether N was banded or broadcast. With each increment of N the NO₃-N concentration increased. Total or U.S. No. 1 yields of potatoes were not consistently different whether N was banded or broadcast. Total yields increased when N was increased from 67 to 202 kg/ha. Neither yield of U.S. No. 1 grade or dry matter content of potatoes was improved when N was increased above 134 kg/ha.     

Acceptance and competitiveness of new improved wheat varieties by smallholder farmers

We conducted this research because earlier research revealed that Pakistani farmers were growing 8–10-year-old wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) varieties and hence not benefitting from the recent advances in wheat breeding. Participatory varietal selection (PVS) trials were conducted to have farmers validate and include newly released wheat varieties into seed-production stream to speed up replacement of old and obsolete wheat varieties by farmer-preferred new high-yielding varieties. Fourteen new varieties recommended for irrigated and eight for rainfed environments were evaluated in this research involving smallholder farmers in food-deficit districts of Pakistan. Collaborating farmers preferred 10 varieties from the PVS trials, eight of which were germplasm from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) that yielded on average 5–17% more grain than local checks. Local checks used in the PVS trials in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were old improved varieties. Greater yield advantage from new varieties over local checks was reported from rainfed environments and areas where old local checks were used. The PVS research showed the possibility of ensuring food security of smallholder farmers as new high-yielding varieties gave an additional 0.3 –0.5 tons of grain per ha, sufficient to feed two to three persons per year. Research also revealed that innovative farmers in rainfed regions grew wheat varieties recommended for irrigated regions to identify high-yielding wheat varieties with stable performance. Feedback by farmers to wheat breeding research system was to develop even higher yielding new wheat varieties with diseases resistance to replace old and obsolete varieties to boost food security.