Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Supplemental fat source affects feedlot performance and carcass traits of finishing yearling steers and estimated diet net energy value

Two trials that utilized 356 yearling steers were conducted to evaluate the effects of fat sources (3.5% of diet dry matter) in steam-flaked milo finishing diets. Fats differed in fatty acid composition and level of free fatty acids. In Trial 1, soybean oil, tallow and yellow grease were compared to a nonfat control. Feeding fat increased (P less than .05) daily gain, feed efficiency, estimated diet NE concentration, carcass weight and dressing percentage of steers. In Trial 2, fat treatments were control, acidulated soybean soapstock (SBSS), tallow, a blend of 70% SBSS:30% tallow, and yellow grease. Feeding tallow or the SBSS:tallow blend improved (P less than .05) feed efficiency and estimated dietary NE compared to control. Proportions of palmitic, stearic, oleic, linoleic and linolenic acid in longissimus muscle of steers were altered (P less than .05) by source of supplemental fat. Potential variability in animal response to fat blends was demonstrated by differences in animal response to yellow grease in the two trials. It was concluded that fats vary in feeding value and may alter carcass composition, contrary to putative thought. Further, potential associative effects of fat blends and interactions of fat with other dietary components in high-grain finishing diets require further investigation.     

Teton Russet: An Early-Maturing,Dual-Purpose Potato Cultivar Having Higher Protein and Vitamin C Content,Low Asparagine,and Resistances to Common Scab and Fusarium Dry Rot

Teton Russet is an early-maturing, medium-russeted, potato cultivar with high merit for both fresh-pack and processing. In early harvest trials in the Pacific Northwest, Teton Russet had total yields similar to Russet Norkotah, and higher than Ranger Russet and Russet Burbank. Marketable yield of Teton Russet in the early harvest trials was also comparable to or higher than Russet Norkotah in Washington and Oregon, and higher than Ranger Russet and Russet Burbank at these sites, as well as in Idaho. In full-season trials, while total yield of the earlier-maturing Teton Russet tended to be lower than Ranger Russet and Russet Burbank, marketable yield was generally higher than Russet Burbank across the majority of sites due to its higher percentage of U.S. No. 1 tubers. Teton Russet is suitable for processing, with acceptable fry color following up to 8 months of storage at 8.9 °C. Uniformity of fry color was also very consistent. Teton Russet has shown lower levels of the amino acid asparagine relative to Ranger Russet and Russet Burbank which may contribute to lower acrylamide levels in French fries and other processed potato products. Teton Russet is notable for having resistance to common scab (Streptomyces spp.) and Fusarium dry rot, and is moderately resistant to tuber net necrosis. Analyses have also shown Teton Russet to have significantly higher protein levels than Russet Norkotah, Ranger Russet, and Russet Burbank, as well as higher vitamin C content than Russet Norkotah and Russet Burbank. Teton Russet was released in 2011 by the USDA-ARS and the Agricultural Experiment Stations of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, and is a product of the Pacific Northwest Potato Variety (Tri-State) Development Program.     

Echinococcus multilocularis (Cestoda,Taeniidae) in Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in northern Belgium

The first record of the tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis (Cestoda, Taeniidae) in Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in northern Belgium is described. Between 1996 and 1999, 237 dead foxes were examined for the presence of this tapeworm using the intestinal scraping technique. Four foxes (1.7%) were found to be infected with E. multilocularis and showed medium to very high parasitic burdens. Three infected foxes originated from the south of the study area and the fourth animal came from the north of the study area near the border with The Netherlands. These findings are discussed in relation to the high endemicity of E. multilocularis in southern Belgium and to the increased distribution of the Red fox (V. vulpes) in northern Belgium during the last two decades.     

Immunisation against Theileria parva in eastern Zambia: influence of maternal antibodies and demonstration of the carrier status

Immunisation of calves by the infection and treatment method (I & T) has been extensively used in the eastern province of Zambia to control East Coast fever (ECF), a protozoan tick-borne disease. This paper presents the results of a field longitudinal study, which included a total of 148 Angoni calves. After immunisation against ECF, they were monitored for a full rainy season, coinciding with the main peak of activity of the vector of Theileria parva, the tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus. Dysimmunisation (acute reaction generated by I & T immunisation), seroconversion and mortality are among the parameters recorded. The effect of maternal antibodies on these parameters was analysed and also studied in experimental conditions on two calves. Before immunisation, young calves had a higher seroprevalence than older animals (maternal antibodies) but their post-immunisation seroprevalence was lower. There was no evidence that their immunoprotection was weaker but this indicates that the post-immunisation seroconversion is probably not a reliable tool to monitor the efficacy of calf immunisation. The carrier state of cattle after immunisation was investigated in experimental conditions on three bovines whereas in the field, the infection prevalence in the ticks was estimated using the relation between the tick burden and the T. parva contacts with the calves. The ability of larval and nymphal R. appendiculatus ticks to pick-up T. parva from carriers and to transmit it to na?ve animals after moulting was assessed. It was found that both instars are able to transmit clinical and lethal ECF but that the prevalence of T. parva infection in nymphs is much lower than in adults, confirming the primary role of adults in the transmission of ECF in endemic conditions. Similar results were obtained from the field whereby the ECF peak corresponds with the peak of adult R. appendiculatus activity. The infection prevalence in the ticks was however much lower in the field than in experimental conditions indicating that an important proportion of them feed on alternative hosts. Old ticks seemed to have lost part of their infectivity.     

Minimum space allowance for transportation of swine by road

Space allowance for animals in transit is a consistent concern in many countries that are developing codes of practice and regulations to assure humane treatment of food producing animals. The minimum space allowance requirements for a broad size range of swine in transit has not been well described or scientifically substantiated. A maximal loading pressure recommendation for pigs weighing from 5 to 250 kg was derived by a consultative process involving the swine transportation industry, animal welfare groups, and a literature review. The recommended maximal loading pressure under ideal conditions for swine loaded in groups can be described as a hoerl model y = (37.53)(0.9969)w(W0.5008), where y = loading pressure in kg body weight/m2 and W = average animal body weight in kilograms.     

A Qualitative Study of State‐Level Zoonotic Disease Surveillance in New England

Zoonotic diseases are infectious diseases transmittable between animals and humans and outbreaks of these diseases in animals can signify that humans are also infected (or vice versa). Thus, communication between animal and human health agencies is critical for surveillance. Understanding how these agencies conduct surveillance and share information is important for the development of successful automated zoonotic monitoring systems. Individual interviews were conducted with 13 professionals who perform animal or human zoonotic disease surveillance in one of the New England states. Questions centred on existing surveillance methods, collaborations between animal and human health agencies, and technological and data needs. The results showed that agencies routinely communicate over suspected zoonotic disease cases, yet there are barriers preventing automated electronic linking of health data of animals and humans. These include technological barriers and barriers due to sensitivity and confidentiality of information. Addressing these will facilitate the development of electronic systems for integrating animal and human zoonotic disease surveillance data.     

Effects of input management and crop diversity on non-renewable energy use efficiency of cropping systems in the Canadian Prairie

Although producers’ prime objective may be to increase net returns, many are also interested in conserving and enhancing the quality the soil, water and air resources through adopting more environmentally friendly production practices. This study compared non-renewable energy inputs, energy output, and energy use efficiency of nine dryland cropping systems comprised of a factorial combination of three methods of input management [high (HIGH), i.e., conventional tillage plus full recommended rates of fertilizer and pesticides; reduced (RED), i.e., conservation tillage plus reduced rates of fertilizer and pesticides; and organic (ORG), i.e., conventional tillage plus N-fixing legumes and non-chemical means of weed and pest control]; and three crop rotation systems with varying levels of cropping diversity [a fallow-based rotation with low crop diversity (LOW); a diversified rotation using annual cereal, oilseed and pulse grains (DAG); and a diversified rotation using annual grains and perennial forages (DAP)]. The study was conducted over the 1996–2007 period on a Dark Brown Chernozemic soil (Typic Boroll) in the Canadian Prairies. As expected, total direct plus indirect energy input was the highest for the HIGH and RED input treatments (3773 MJ ha^?1 year^?1), and 50% less for ORG management. Most of the energy savings came from the non-use of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides in the ORG management treatments. Further, total energy use was the highest for the DAG treatments (3572 MJ ha^?1 year^?1), and similar but about 18% lower for the DAP and LOW crop diversity treatments compared to DAG. Thus, overall, the HIGH/DAG and RED/DAG systems had the highest energy requirements (4409 MJ ha^?1 year^?1) and ORG/DAP had the lowest (1806 MJ ha^?1 year^?1). Energy output (calorimetric energy content) was typically the highest for the HIGH input treatments (26,541 MJ ha^?1 year^?1), was about 4% less with RED, and 37% less with ORG management. The latter reflected the lower crop yields obtained with organic management. Similarly, energy output was the highest for the DAP treatments (25,008 MJ ha^?1 year^?1), about 5% less for DAG, and 20% less for the LOW crop diversity treatments. The higher energy output with the DAP treatments largely reflected that the entire harvested biomass of the forage crops was included in energy output, while for grain crops only the seed was included. The straw and crop residues from annual crops were returned to the land to protect the soil from erosion and to maintain soil organic matter as this is the recommended practice in this semi-arid region. In contrast to energy output and to net energy produced, energy use efficiency (measured as yield of grain plus forage produced per unit of energy input or as energy output/energy input ratio) was the highest for the ORG input treatments (497 kg of harvested production GJ^?1 of energy input, and an energy output/energy input ratio of 8.8). We obtained lower, but generally similar energy use efficiency for the HIGH and RED input treatments (392 kg GJ^?1 and ratio of 7.1). Thus, overall, ORG/DAP was the most energy efficient cropping system, while RED/LOW and RED/DAG generally ranked the lowest in energy use efficiency. Our findings support the current movement of producers toward ORG management as a means of reducing the reliance on non-renewable energy inputs and improving overall energy use efficiency of their cropping systems. Our results also suggest that moving away from traditional monoculture cereal rotations that employ frequent summer fallowing, toward extended and diversified crop rotations that use reduced tillage methods, although resulting in an increase in energy output, will not significantly reduce the overall reliance on non-renewable energy inputs, nor enhance energy use efficiency, unless perennial legume forages and/or legume grain crops are included in the cropping mix.     

Über das Vorkommen der Zwiebelblattlaus,Myzus ascalonicus DONC., im Alpenraum

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