Low-CO2 Energy Pathways versus Emission Control Policies in Acidification Reduction

Integrated assessment models were applied to analyze the side-benefits of structural changes in the energy systems of Finland and the EU to reduce acidity critical load exceedances in Finland. The acidification reduction potential of structural measures, induced by the need to restrict carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, was compared with international agreements limiting acidifying emissions. The impacts of the UN/ECE Gothenburg protocol and the European Commission's proposal for a National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive were assessed together with domestic and bilateral policy scenarios. The study utilized point-source emission databases of Finland and the neighboring areas and a meso-scale deposition model together with the Europewide transfer matrices of the EMEP/MSC-W and European emission scenarios of IIASA. Further technical reduction measures in the adjacent large sulfur emission sources in Russia would reduce considerably deposition to nearby Finnish areas. Energy saving and shifts in the EU energy system towards less carbon-intensive fuels instead of further technical emission controls were found to have significant potential in limiting acidifying deposition. Implementation of the Kyoto protocol in the EU could reduce the Finnish areas at risk of acidification more than the Gothenburg protocol and the NEC Directive together.     

Integrated Assessment Modeling of Air Pollution in Four European Countries

The integrated assessment modeling on acid rain has incorporated several related effects and pollutants into a multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach, resulting in complex integrated models and policy assessments. The development and implementation of effects-oriented cost-effective emission reduction strategies in Europe are based on integrated assessment models. The project on national integrated assessment modeling in Finland, Denmark, Spain and Sweden aimed to support the national evaluation of European emission reduction strategies. The tasks covered the comparison of inventories and projections for emissions of sulfur, nitrogen oxides, ammonia and volatile organic compounds, assessment of control techniques and related costs, concentration and deposition scenarios to estimate environmental effects of acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone and their temporal aspects, uncertainty analyses on both individual modules and whole integrated models, and dissemination of results to stakeholders. The integrated assessment modeling provided a consistent framework for the harmonization of input data and in-depth scientific research tasks on emissions, pollutant loading and impacts including comprehensive uncertainty analyses, and facilitated the dissemination of knowledge to policy-makers.     

Modeling Effects of Changing Deposition and Forestry on Nitrogen Fluxes in a Northern River Basin

The application of a new, spatial nitrogen leaching/retention model N_EXRET to the Oulujoki river basin (22800 km²) in Finland is discussed. The model utilizes remote sensing-based land use and forest classification and evaluated export coefficients obtained from detailed small catchment studies. The present and future N depositions were estimated with the regional deposition model DAIQUIRI. Based on source apportionment, N deposition, forestry and agriculture each contribute 16–17% of the total export, with pronounced variation between the different sub-basins. The effect of changing forestry and deposition on N fluxes is assessed by using N deposition scenarios based on recent international emission reduction agreements.     

Cost-Effective Abatement of Acidifying Emissions with Flue Gas Cleaning vs. Fuel Switching in Finland

Acidifying emissions from energy production and industry have decreased considerably during the last two decades in Finland. Especially the emissions of sulphur dioxide have dropped sharply with 85% in 1980–1998, although the energy use has increased 30% during the same period. The reduction has occurred through two mechanisms: by replacing the combustion of heavy fuel oil with cleaner energy carriers, and by direct emission reduction controls, e.g. flue gas desulphurization. In this study the Finnish cost curves for SO₂ and NO_x were first calculated to produce a consistent comprehensive view on further emission reduction costs and potentials. The data on technical and cost-related parameters were based on actual national experiences from power plants and industry. Most of the cost-efficient sulphur emission controls were already in use. For NO_x, a large share of further reduction potential still remained. Second, a case on the emission reductions and costs for fuel switching in a 205 MW_th peat power plant of Tampere Power Utility in Finland was studied. Fuel switching to natural gas was found less cost-efficient in SO₂ and NO_x emission reduction when compared to flue gas cleaning techniques. The findings provided new information on fuel switching as an alternative potential reduction measure, which is not considered in international assessments.     

Fluxes and Trends of Nitrogen and Sulphur Compounds at Integrated Monitoring Sites in Europe

The International Cooperative Programme on Integrated Monitoring (ICP IM) is part of the effects monitoring strategy of the UN/ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. We calculated input-output budgets and trends of N and S compounds, base cations and hydrogen ions for 22 forested ICP IM catchments/plots across Europe. The site-specific trends were calculated for deposition and runoff water fluxes and concentrations using monthly data and non-parametric methods. The reduction in deposition of S and N compounds, caused by the new Gothenburg Protocol of the Convention, was estimated for the year 2010 using atmospheric transfer matrices and official emissions. Statistically significant downward trends of SO₄, NO₃ and NH₄ bulk deposition (fluxes or concentrations) were observed at 50% of the ICP IM sites. Implementation of the new UN/ECE emission reduction protocol will further decrease the deposition of S and N at the ICP IM sites in western and northwestern parts of Europe. Sites with higher N deposition and lower C/N-ratios clearly showed an increased risk of elevated N leaching. Decreasing SO₄ and base cation trends in output fluxes and/or concentrations of surface/soil water were commonly observed at the ICP IM sites. At several sites in Nordic countries decreasing NO₃ and H⁺ trends (increasing pH) were also observed. These results partly confirm the effective implementation of emission reduction policy in Europe. However, clear responses were not observed at all sites, showing that recovery at many sensitive sites can be slow and that the response at individual sites may vary greatly.