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Greiner M Müller-Graf C Hiller P Schrader C Gervelmeyer A Ellerbroek L Appel B 《Berliner und Münchener tier?rztliche Wochenschrift》2007,120(3-4):98-107
According to current scientific opinion the risk of human infection with H5N1 via preparation and consumption of poultry meat is negligible.This opinion has not yet been challenged by a formal risk assessment, due to the lack of empirical data. We have developed a scenario pathway model as a conceptual framework for a formal assessment of the H5N1 risk to humans through consumption of poultry meat and parameterise the model using information derived from expert opinions. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the notion of an overall negligible risk via the oral infection route is consistent with ad hoc data and expert opinions on the relevant parameters of the model.The model is mainly based on expert opinion. A stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted which took into consideration (amongst others) the exposure and infection of chicken (broiler and layer), turkeys, ducks and geese, the probabilities of detection prior to slaughter, virus survival and contamination during slaughter, as well as during the cutting and preparation of meat in commercial plants and in private households, respectively. The empirical consumption pattern for poultry meat in Germany was taken into account in the simulation.The results show that the risk for the individual consumer is practically zero whereas up to 23 cases per year in Germany might occur if the upper (more pessimistic) ranges of the expert opinions apply.The finding of a low but non-negligible risk to the population is discussed in relation to the epidemiological information available from recent outbreaks in South East Asia. 相似文献
3.
Schneider M Hildebrandt N Schweigl T Wehner M 《Journal of veterinary internal medicine / American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine》2007,21(2):251-257
BACKGROUND: Patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) size and morphology influence the selection of the kind and the size of the embolization device used to effect shunt closure. HYPOTHESIS: That echocardiographic measurement of PDA in dogs is accurate. ANIMALS: Forty-five client-owned dogs with PDA. METHODS: Prospective observational study. Echocardiographic and angiographic data were compared. RESULTS: Measurement of the ductus in color Doppler echocardiography (CD-E) and 2-dimensional echocardiography (2D-E) was achieved from left parasternal views in 43 of 45 unsedated dogs (96%). In these 43 dogs, the angiographic minimal PDA diameter was 3.72 +/- 1.59 mm, and the diameter of the PDA ampulla was 8.46 +/- 3.01 mm. The CD-E minimal PDA diameter ranged from 2.3 to 9.5 mm (median, 4.0 mm). There was a significant mean difference to the angiographic measurements (1.15 +/- 0.95 mm; P < .0001). An agreement in a 1-mm range was found in 21 of 43 dogs (48%). The 2D-E minimal PDA diameter was 3.73 +/- 1.78 mm, and the mean difference to the angiographic measurements was not significant (0.00 +/- 0.72 mm; P = .98). An agreement in a 1-mm range was found in 31 of 43 dogs (72%). The 2D-E measurement of the PDA ampulla revealed a significant mean difference to the angiographic data (1.95 +/- 2.43 mm, P < .0001). An agreement in a 2-mm range was found in 21 of 43 dogs (49%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: The 2D-E from the left cranial parasternal view is an excellent noninvasive method to estimate the PDA minimal diameter before doing catheter intervention. 相似文献
4.
Emergency preparedness relies on the ability to detect patterns in rare incidents in an early stage of an outbreak in order to implement relevant actions. Early warning of an abortion storm as a result of infection with a notifiable disease, e.g. brucellosis, bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) or infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), is a significant surveillance tool. This study used data from 507 large Danish dairy herds. A modified two-stage method for detecting an unusual increase in the abortion incidence was applied to the data. An alarm was considered true if an abortion were detected in the month following the alarm month, otherwise false. The total number of abortions that could potentially be avoided if effective action were taken ranged from 769 (22.9%) to 10 (0.3%), as the number of abortions required to set the alarm increased from 1 to 6. The vast majority of abortions could, however, not be predicted, much less prevented, given this early-warning system. The false to true alarm ratio was reduced when the number of abortions that set the alarm increased. The financial scenarios evaluated demonstrated that the value of an abortion, the cost of responding to an alarm and the efficiency of the actions are important for decision making when reporting an alarm. The presented model can readily be extended to other disease problems and multiple-time periods. 相似文献
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Landscape Ecology - Landscape archaeology has a lot to offer to landscape ecology, being an interdisciplinary approach that emphasizes the study of long-term human–environment dynamics. We... 相似文献
6.
Tappeiner Ulrike Leitinger Georg Zariņa Anita Bürgi Matthias 《Landscape Ecology》2021,36(8):2317-2328
Landscape Ecology - Landscape ecology early on developed the awareness that central objects of investigation are not stable over time and therefore the historical dimension must be included, or at... 相似文献
7.
The fate of fenpropimorph and its metabolite fenpropimorphic acid was investigated in a silty sand soil and in a clayey silt soil. In laboratory and field experiments fenpropimorph disappeared without a lag phase. A few days after application fenpropimorphic acid was detected. Additional laboratory experiments with [14C]fenpropimorph emphasized the significance of mineralization and the formation of non-extractable residues. The determination of soil/water distribution coefficients of parent compound and metabolite yielded a higher leaching potential for fenpropimorphic acid due to its higher polarity. This was confirmed by performing a laboratory column test under worst-case conditions. Under field conditions, however, fenpropimorphic acid was detected only in the superficial soil layers (0–5 cm) of both investigation sites at very low concentrations. 相似文献
8.
Floating chirality restrained distance geometry (fc-rDG) calculations are used to directly evolve structures from NMR data such as NOE-derived intramolecular distances or anisotropic residual dipolar couplings (RDCs). In contrast to evaluating pre-calculated structures against NMR restraints, multiple configurations (diastereomers) and conformations are generated automatically within the experimental limits. In this report, we show that the “unphysical” rDG pseudo energies defined from NMR violations bear statistical significance, which allows assigning probabilities to configurational assignments made that are fully compatible with the method of Bayesian inference. These “diastereomeric differentiabilities” then even become almost independent of the actual values of the force constants used to model the restraints originating from NOE or RDC data. 相似文献
9.
Joko Tri Wibowo Matthias Y. Kellermann Lars-Erik Petersen Yustian R. Alfiansah Colleen Lattyak Peter J. Schupp 《Marine drugs》2022,20(1)
Melanin is a widely distributed and striking dark-colored pigment produced by countless living organisms. Although a wide range of bioactivities have been recognized, there are still major constraints in using melanin for biotechnological applications such as its fragmentary known chemical structure and its insolubility in inorganic and organic solvents. In this study, a bacterial culture of Streptomyces cavourensis SV 21 produced two distinct forms of melanin: (1) a particulate, insoluble form as well as (2) a rarely observed water-soluble form. The here presented novel, acid-free purification protocol of purified particulate melanin (PPM) and purified dissolved melanin (PDM) represents the basis for an in-depth comparison of their physicochemical and biological properties, which were compared to the traditional acid-based precipitation of melanin (AM) and to a synthetic melanin standard (SM). Our data show that the differences in solubility between PDM and PPM in aqueous solutions may be a result of different adjoining cation species, since the soluble PDM polymer is largely composed of Mg2+ ions and the insoluble PPM is dominated by Ca2+ ions. Furthermore, AM shared most properties with SM, which is likely attributed to a similar, acid-based production protocol. The here presented gentler approach of purifying melanin facilitates a new perspective of an intact form of soluble and insoluble melanin that is less chemical altered and thus closer to its original biological form. 相似文献
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