Projections of SO2, NOx,NH3 and VOC Emissions in East Asia Up to 2030

Starting from an inventory of SO₂, NO_x, VOC and NH₃ emissions for the years 1990 and 1995 in East Asia (Japan, South and North Korea, China, Mongolia and Taiwan), the temporal development of the emissions of the four air pollutants is projected to the year 2030 based on scenarios of economic development. The projections are prepared at a regional level (prefectures or provinces of individual countries) and distinguish more than 100 source categories for each region. The emission estimates are presented with a spatial resolution of 1×1 degree longitude/latitude. First results suggest that, due to the emission control legislation taken in the region, SO₂ emissions would only grow by about 46 percent until 2030. Emissions of NO_x and VOC may increase by 95 and 65 percent, respectively, mainly driven by the expected increase in road traffic volume. Ammonia, mainly emitted from agriculture, is projected to double by 2030.     

Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide-reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.     

A Module to Calculate Primary Particulate Matter Emissions and Abatement Measures in Europe

Primary particulate matter is emitted directly into the atmosphere from various anthropogenic and natural sources such as power plants (combustion of fossil fuels) or forest fires. Secondary particles are formed by transformation of SO₂, NO_x, NH₃, and VOC in the atmosphere. They both contribute to ambient particulate matter concentrations, which may have adverse effects on human health. Health hazards are caused by small particulate size, high number of especially fine (< 2.5 µm) and ultra-fine (< 0.1 µm) particles and/or their chemical composition. As part of an integrated assessment model developed at IIASA, a module on primary particulate matter (PM) emissions has been added to the existing SO₂, NO_x, NH₃ and VOC sections. The module considers so far primary emissions of total suspended particles (TSP), PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from aggregated stationary and mobile sources. A primary PM emission database has been established. Country specific emission factors for stationary sources have been calculated within the module using the ash content of solid fuels.     

Integrated assessment of emission control scenarios,including the impact of tropospheric ozone

The RAINS (Regional Air Pollution INformation and Simulation) model was developed at IIASA as an integrated assessment tool to assist policy advisors in evaluating options for reducing acid rain. In recent years, the European implementation of this model has been used to support the negotiations on an updated, effect-based Sulphur Protocol under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. The development of future strategies for reducing the environmental damage caused by air pollutants requires a multi-pollutant, multi-effect approach. In this context, the RAINS model is being further developed to include ozone. This paper outlines the development of an integrated assessment model for tropospheric ozone, which combines information on the emissions of ozone precursors (NO_x and VOCs), the available control technologies and abatement costs, the formation and transport of ozone and its environmental effects in Europe.