Integrated Assessment Modeling of Air Pollution in Four European Countries

The integrated assessment modeling on acid rain has incorporated several related effects and pollutants into a multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach, resulting in complex integrated models and policy assessments. The development and implementation of effects-oriented cost-effective emission reduction strategies in Europe are based on integrated assessment models. The project on national integrated assessment modeling in Finland, Denmark, Spain and Sweden aimed to support the national evaluation of European emission reduction strategies. The tasks covered the comparison of inventories and projections for emissions of sulfur, nitrogen oxides, ammonia and volatile organic compounds, assessment of control techniques and related costs, concentration and deposition scenarios to estimate environmental effects of acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone and their temporal aspects, uncertainty analyses on both individual modules and whole integrated models, and dissemination of results to stakeholders. The integrated assessment modeling provided a consistent framework for the harmonization of input data and in-depth scientific research tasks on emissions, pollutant loading and impacts including comprehensive uncertainty analyses, and facilitated the dissemination of knowledge to policy-makers.     

Coordinated Effects Monitoring and Modelling for Developing and Supporting International Air Pollution Control Agreements

For 20 years the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution has worked to control air pollutant emissions in Europe and North America. Its Working Group on Effects (WGE) has been responsible for much of the underpinning science. The WGE's six International Cooperative Programmes (ICPs) on Waters, Natural Vegetation and Crops, Forests, Materials and Cultural Heritage, Integrated Monitoring, and Modelling and Mapping, together with a Joint Task Force on Human Health with WHO, quantify air pollution effects on the environment through monitoring, modelling and scientific review. Early work found evidence to support the need for decreases in emissions of sulphur and nitrogen pollutants. More recently, monitoring results and models have provided the scientific basis, e.g. critical loads and levels, for effects-based Protocols and for evaluating their effectiveness. ICP studies on trends show recovery from acidification effects in keeping with the fall in sulphur emissions. Steady-state models provide an indication of long-term improvements. Recent increased emphasis on developing dynamic models will enable better links between recovery rates and abatement strategies. The scientific network of the ICPs and the monitoring and modelling results have been key to the development of the Convention and are an essential component for its success in the future.