Development of Temporal Modeling for Forecasting and Prediction of the Incidence of Lychee,Tessaratoma papillosa (Hemiptera: Tessaratomidae), Using Time-Series (ARIMA) Analysis

The most destructive enemy of the lychee, Litchi chinensis Sonn. (Sapindales: Sapindaceae), in India is a stink bug, Tessaratoma papillosa (Drury) (Hemiptera: Tessaratomidae). The population of T. papillosa on lychee trees varied from 1.43 ± 0.501 to 9.85 ± 3.924 insects per branch in this study. An increase in the temperature and a decrease in the relative humidity during summer months (April to July) favor the population buildup of T. papillosa. A forecasting model to predict T. papillosa incidences in lychee orchards was developed using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model of time-series analysis. The best-fit model for the T. papillosa incidence was ARIMA (1,1), where the P-value was significant at 0.01. The highest T. papillosa incidences were predicted for April in 2010, January in 2011, May in 2012, and February in 2013. A model based on time series offers longer-term forecasting. The forecasting model, ARIMA (1,1), developed in this study will predict T. papillosa incidences in advance, thus providing functional guidelines for effective planning of timely prevention and control measures.     

Characterization of free-living cyanobacterial strains and their competence to colonize rice roots

A total of 45 cyanobacterial strains isolated from rice fields near Loktak Lake in Manipur, India were tested for their rice root colonization capacity under light and under darkness. Twenty-one of these strains showed significant colonization of rice roots. The average colonization values were 637 and 381?μg chl a g^?1 root dry wt in N₂ medium and 792 and 451?μg chl a g^?1 root dry wt in NO ₃ ^? medium under light and darkness, respectively. Thus, while the colonization was higher under light and in NO ₃ ^? medium, there was significant level of colonization under darkness in N₂ medium (381?μg chl a g^?1 root dry wt). A 16S rRNA gene fragment-based denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analysis revealed difference in the competence of individual strains to colonize rice roots exposed to individual or mixed population. The colonization pattern of seven strains used in competition experiments was found to be biphasic. A 16S rRNA gene-based phylogenetic analysis revealed high level of molecular similarity among strains of Nostoc and Anabaena.