Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

CO2-stunning of swine for slaughter from the anesthesiological viewpoint

For investigations of CO2-stunning of feeder- and slaughter-pigs parameters of behaviour, blood-gas-analyses and electroencephalograms were chosen. The following results were obtained: 1. Blood-gas-analyses proved that the CO2-stunning does not produce unconsciousness due to a lack of oxygen. 2. The criterias of general anaesthesia: unconsciousness, muscle-relaxation and analgesia with total reversibility could be confirmed. 3. The violent convulsive symptoms were evaluated as reactions identical with the stage II of GUEDEL's scheme of anaesthesia. 4. Muscular agitation, which sometimes appeared a few seconds before the stage of excitation, was judged to belong either to the start of the excitation phase or to the end of Guedel's stage of analgesia, during which the sensitivity is decreased. Neither study of behavior nor objective measurements showed, during the first 10 to 20 seconds of exposure to the CO2, any sign of pain or suffering related to the Act for Prevention of Cruelty to Animals, and accordingly such suffering should not be ascribed to the CO2 stunning method.     

ULTRASONOGRAPHY OF THE FEMORAL ARTERY IN SIX NORMAL HORSES AND THREE HORSES WITH THROMBOSIS

Ultrasonography of the femoral artery in the horse, including color, power and spectral Doppler, provides morphologic and dynamic information. This paper describes the use of the techniques in six clinically normal horses and three with femoral artery thrombosis. Useful landmarks for orientation are the saphenous artery and the medial saphenous vein. The lateral circumflex femoral artery can not be visualized. Recognition of the genus descendens artery is complicated due to the presence of multiple distal caudal femoral arteries. The femoral artery feeds a high resistance bed. In normal horses the peak systolic velocity varies between 50–90 cm/sec. Echoic tissue in the femoral artery lumen with stenosis, occlusion and collateral blood flow formation are features encountered in the patients.     

Tree-ring: a suitable implement for spatial and temporal fire distribution analysis in savanna woodland and dry forest

Based on 120 stem discs collected during3 months of fieldwork along a 12 km route,the history of fires in the Wari Maro Forest(09 1000 N–02 1000E) over the past century in savanna woodland and dry forest was reconstituted.Three major ecological areas are characterized:one highly burnt zone located between two relative less burnt areas.By analyzing tree rings,246 fire scars were identified.The scars were caused by 51 fire years,occurring at a mean interval of 2.23 years.From 1890 to1965,only 6 years with fires were recorded from sampled trees.Since 1966,no year has passed without fire.The fire frequency point scale reached 14 years.This was the case of Burkea africana,which has been identified as a species tolerant to fire and could be planted to create a natural firewall.In contrast,Anogeissus leiocarpa is highly sensitive to fire,and in a dry forest ecosystem that burns seasonally,it requires a special conservation plan.Two new concepts are described:the rebarking of trees after fire and Mean Kilometer Fire Interval.The first concept was tested with Daniellia oliveri(Rolfe) Hutch & Dalz trees,and the second concept was used to evaluate spatial fire distribution.We demonstrate that savanna woodland and dry forest were subject to a degradation process caused by destructive fires related to vegetation cover clearance and illegal logging.