Trade-off between wheat yield and drainage under current and climate change conditions in northeast Germany

In the temperate climate of northeast Germany, a trade-off exists between water use in agricultural crop production and groundwater recharge which is important for urban water supply, irrigation, forestry and peat protection. The APSIM-Nwheat model was used to analyze the impact of climate change scenarios on deep drainage (DD), the water loss below the maximum root zone as the main source of groundwater recharge, and wheat production for two main soil types. A linear and a nonlinear climate scenario were used in this study: The linear scenario for 2001–2050 was based on a simple linearly modified historical climate record from 1951 to 2000. The nonlinear scenario used the same 1951–2000 historical climate record but combined it nonlinearly with a Global Circulation Model climate scenario for 2001–2050. Simulation results showed different distributions of deep drainage and grain yield with the linear and nonlinear scenarios, but no difference in the 50-year averages. Hence, a linear manipulation of climate records can be as effective for climate change impact studies on deep drainage and grain yield as nonlinearly manipulated climate data, if long-term average changes are of main interest. The simulation results indicated that a trade-off between deep drainage and grain yields can be potentially controlled through N management. However, such control mechanism was more effective under current climate conditions than under future climate and on a better water-holding silt soil compared to a poorer water-holding loamy sand. It is suggested that areas with poor water-holding soils should be managed extensively for groundwater recharge harvesting while better water-holding soils should be used for high input grain production.     

A flexible approach to managing variability in grain yield and nitrate leaching at within-field to farm scales

We up-scaled the APSIM simulation model of crop growth, water and nitrogen dynamics to interpret and respond to spatial and temporal variations in soil, season and crop performance and improve yield and decrease nitrate leaching. Grain yields, drainage below the maximum root depth and nitrate leaching are strongly governed by interaction of plant available soil water storage capacity (PAWC), seasonal rainfall and nitrogen supply in the water-limited Mediterranean-type environment of Western Australia (WA). APSIM simulates the interaction of these key system parameters and the robustness of its simulations has been rigorously tested with the results of several field experiments covering a range of soil types and seasonal conditions in WA. We used yield maps, soil and weather data for farms at two locations in WA to determine spatial and temporal patterns of grain yield, drainage below the maximum root depth and nitrate leaching under a range of weather, soil and nitrogen management scenarios. On one farm, we up-scaled APSIM simulations across the whole farm using local weather and fertiliser use data and the average PAWC values of soil type polygons. On a 70 ha field on another farm, we used a linear regression of apparent soil electrical conductivity (EC_a) measured by EM38 against PAWC to transform an EC_a map of the field into a high resolution (5 m grid) PAWC map. We then used regressions of simulated yields, drainage below the maximum root depth and nitrate leaching on PAWC to upscale the APSIM simulations for a range of weather and fertiliser management scenarios. This continuous mapping approach overcame the weakness of the soil polygons approach, which assumed uniformity in soil properties and processes within soil type polygons. It identified areas at greatest financial and environmental risks across the field, which required focused management and simulated their response to management interventions. Splitting nitrogen applications increased simulated wheat yields at all sites across the field and decreased nitrate leaching particularly where the water storage capacity of the soil was small. Low water storage capacity resulted in both low wheat yields and large leaching loss. Another management option to decrease leaching may be to grow perennial vegetation that uses more water and loses less by drainage.Paper from the 5th European Conference on Precision Agriculture (5ECPA), Uppsala, Sweden, 2005     

Yield benefits of triticale traits for wheat under current and future climates

Triticale often out-yields wheat in both favourable and unfavourable growing conditions. Observed traits suggested for the higher yields in triticale include greater early vigour, a longer spike formation phase with same duration to flowering, reduced tillering, increased remobilization of carbohydrates to the grain, early vigorous root growth and higher transpiration use efficiency. To quantify the impact of these traits systematically across seasons and contrasting rainfall regions and soil types, these triticale traits were introduced into a wheat model (APSIM-Nwheat). The impact of each individual trait and their full combination was analysed in a simulation experiment for three Mediterranean growing environments, two contrasting soil types and long-term historical weather data. The simulated impact of these traits was compared with measured impacts from a range of field experiments across several environments. Simulated responses of various crop characteristics including yield, were in general similar to responses observed in wheat-triticale comparison field experiments across a large range of growing conditions. The simulation analysis indicated that the yield response to the incorporation of the triticale traits into wheat was positive, in both low and high yielding growing conditions, similar to measured differences, but the simulated benefit was on average lower than the range observed in data of triticale and wheat. This suggests that other traits might also be involved in higher-yielding triticale, or the magnitude of some of the traits may be underestimated in field experiments due to ‘trait by environment’ interactions. The simulation results suggest the highest yield benefit can be achieved from increasing transpiration use efficiency in wheat, but early vigour, remobilization of stem carbohydrates and early root growth also contribute positively to a yield increase in the different growing environments. The yield benefits from the triticale traits increased in the future climate change scenario in particular on soils with high water-holding capacity from contributions of increased early vigour, remobilization of stem carbohydrates and transpiration use efficiency, and remained stable on the lighter soils.     

Plant available soil water at sowing in Mediterranean environments—Is it a useful criterion to aid nitrogen fertiliser and sowing decisions?

In regions where rainfall is low and variable, water stored in the soil profile prior to sowing can alter yield expectation and hence management decisions. Thus, wheat farmers in Mediterranean regions may be able to benefit from knowing the amount of soil water at sowing by optimising their nitrogen (N) fertiliser management and by deciding on whether or not to sow a crop. We used the ASPIM-Nwheat model to explore how levels of plant available soil water (PAW) at sowing, N fertiliser rate, soil, site and season-type (below or above median rainfall) affected wheat yields at sites in the Mediterranean area of southwest Australia. Overall, the greatest influence on yield potential and the consequent N fertilisation requirement was season-type. The additional yield per mm PAW at sowing was generally higher in seasons with below median rainfall, except when yields were severely water-limited by below median rainfall of <222 mm combined with <40 mm PAW at sowing on light clay soil with 109 mm plant available water capacity (PAWC). Sowing was generally warranted; only on light clay soil with <10 mm PAW at sowing and below median rainfall of <222 mm was there an opportunity for a conditional sowing strategy. Scope for varying N fertiliser rates with PAW at sowing was limited to soils with higher PAWC (109 and 130 mm, respectively) in below median rainfall seasons at the wetter site (295 mm mean seasonal rainfall), and in both season-types at the drier site (225 mm mean seasonal rainfall). Only in these combinations, soil water at sowing modified the optimal N fertiliser rate for maximum average yield resulting in significant interactions between PAW at sowing and N fertiliser rates. Similar interactions were found for a site in the Mediterranean Basin and a site in the eastern Australian subtropics on soil with high PAWC (183 and 276 mm, respectively). In contrast, there was no benefit from modifying crop management based on PAW at sowing on soil with low PAWC (i.e. sandy soil) and/or under conditions of high in-season rainfall. The conditional N management approach becomes more viable as the proportion of water stored in the soil prior to sowing increases relative to total crop water use and as the PAWC of the soil increases. Knowledge of PAW at sowing × N fertiliser rate interactions in a particular soil × site × season-type context can help to identify sites where a more targeted N management dependent on amounts of PAW at sowing is potentially profitable.     

An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided.     

Mapping subsoil acidity and shallow soil across a field with information from yield maps, geophysical sensing and the grower

Management decisions, such as subsoil liming or varying fertilizer inputs to take account of soil depth and anticipated yields require knowledge of where subsoil constraints to root growth occur across the field. We used selected yield maps based on criteria derived from crop simulation, apparent soil electrical conductivity (EC_a), gamma-ray emission maps and a soil type map drawn by the grower to predict the spatial distribution of subsoil acidity and shallow soil across a field. Yield maps integrate the effects of variation in soil and climate, and it was only under specific seasonal conditions that subsoil constraints depressed yields. We used crop simulation modelling to select yield maps with a large information content on the spatial distribution of these constraints and to omit those with potentially misleading information. Yield and other spatial data layers were used alone or in combination to develop subsoil mapping options to accommodate differences in data availability, access to precision agriculture techniques and the grower’s aptitude and preference. One option used gamma-ray spectrometry and EM38 survey as a dual-sensing system to improve data interpretation. Gamma-ray spectrometry helped to overcome the inability of current EC_a-based methods to sense soil depth in highly weathered sandy soil over cemented gravel. A feature of the approaches presented here is the use of grower and agronomist knowledge, and experience to help interpret the spatial data layers and to evaluate which approach is most suitable and likely to be adopted to suit an individual.     

Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates

Developing crop cultivars with novel traits could help agriculture adapt to climate change. As introducing new traits into crops is expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to develop methods which can test whether a potential new plant trait increases or maintains production in future climates. We used a crop-soil simulation model (APSIM-Nwheat) to test whether changes in physiological traits, related to early vigor and flowering time, would result in increased yield when compared to traditional cultivars of wheat grown at higher temperatures, elevated atmospheric CO₂ and lower rainfall in a Mediterranean climate. Early vigor was simulated by changing four different plant traits. The impact of each trait on grain yield varied with climate scenario and soil type. Higher specific leaf area had minimal effect on yield for the historical climate, but it could increase production in future warmer climates. Increased rooting depth generally had a positive impact on yield, while lower radiation use efficiency and earlier flowering tended to reduce yield. The interaction between these traits was generally positive, and our results indicate that early vigor may improve yield for a range of future climate scenarios. However, in the low rainfall regions, early vigor is unlikely to compensate for rainfall reductions of ?30%. Yield gains for early vigor are likely to be larger on sandy loam than on heavier clay soil.The simulation of cultivars differing in flowering time showed that in drier climates earlier flowering cultivars increase potential yield while in warming climates later cultivars increase yield.In conclusion, our analyses suggest that there is great potential for adapting wheat systems to climate change by introducing cultivars with new traits. Our results also show how simulation analyses can assist plant breeders in determining which traits could be important for crop production in future climates.     

Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia

The environment in which crops will be grown in the future will change. CO₂ concentrations [CO₂] and temperatures (T) will probably increase and a decline of winter rainfall is predicted for south-west Australia. To be able to adapt crop systems to a changing climate it is important to know how different aspects of climate change affect agricultural production and how they interact. In a full factorial design we studied how higher T (2, 4 and 6 °C) elevated [CO₂] (525 and 700 ppm) and five different rainfall scenarios affected wheat yield and grain protein. Effects of climate change were simulated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM-Nwheat) using transformed historic weather data. Fifty years of yield and grain protein concentrations were simulated for three soil types at different locations on a north–south transect within the wheatbelt of south-west Australia.

Simulation results showed that there were complex interactions between different aspects of climate change on crop systems. Effects of higher temperatures, elevated [CO₂] and changed rainfall were in general not linear and differed significantly between soil types and location. Higher [CO₂] increased yield especially at drier sites while higher temperatures had a positive effect in the cooler and wetter southern part of the region. The main difference between soil types was that heavier clay soils are most vulnerable to reduced rainfall while sandy soils were more vulnerable to higher temperatures. Elevated [CO₂] reduced grain protein concentration and lower rainfall increased protein levels at all sites. Higher temperatures could both increase and decrease protein concentrations.

In the southern, higher rainfall part of south-western Australia, yield and gross margin will increase for all likely future climate scenarios. In the drier part of the region, negative effects of 15% reduced rainfall can be compensated for by a 2 °C increase in temperature and 50% higher [CO₂] concentrations. However due to the non-linearity of climate change effects a 30% reduction in rainfall cannot be compensated for by higher temperatures and [CO₂].     

Systems analysis of wheat production on low water-holding soils in a Mediterranean-type environment: II. Drainage and nitrate leaching

In Mediterranean-type environments, the concentration of rainfall in winter months results in average winter rainfall that is in excess of evaporative demand. Cropping coarse textured soils in such regions results in a risk of drainage below the root zone, and associated with this, nutrient leaching. We used the APSIM-Nwheat simulation model to quantify the magnitude and variability of drainage and nitrate–N leaching under wheat crops for six locations and three soil types in the northern sandplain region of the Western Australian wheat belt and to assess the impact of varying crop management on drainage and leaching. Overall, the combination of a high concentration of rainfall in the winter months and coarse soil types resulted in a significant risk of drainage and leaching events of considerable magnitude even at the driest sites considered: the assumption that leaching and drainage are low in areas of low rainfall is an over-simplification. For some locations, simulated drainage was high, exceeding 100 mm for two locations on two soils; the sand and the acid loamy sand. Across the six locations considered, drainage was linearly related to average growing season rainfall. Leaching varied markedly between the soil types, with loamy sand having only one fifth the leaching that was calculated for the acid loamy sand or the sand. This emphasises the importance of small differences in soil type for the risk of drainage and leaching, and hence the potential for negative off-site effects, when cropping light soils in a Mediterranean-type environment. Although sandy soils are held to present the most scope for reducing drainage through agronomic management, the analysis suggested the potential improvements are likely to be small. Consistent with experimental results from other parts of the Western Australian wheat belt, modification of rooting depth appears to present the best option to reduce drainage beneath annual crops.