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Australian tea tree (Melaleuca alternifolia) is a woody plant that produces an essential oil with antiseptic, anti-bacterial, anti-fungal, and anti-inflammatory properties and is widely formulated into many products. Yield and financial analyses were done to compare the viability of replanting 20 ha tea tree plantations using elite clones and improved seedlings over a 15 year time frame were carried out. Four plantation options were modelled: (1) plantations established using genetically improved seedlings (ATTIA 2B) planted at a stocking of 33,333 plants/ha and (2) 16,667 plants/ha, (3) plantations established using the best three selected clones planted at a stocking of 33,333 plants/ha and (4) 16,667 plants/ha. Financial analysis showed that, at an oil price of $45/kg (as at Sep 2008), replacement plantations of either elite clones or improved seedlings are both highly profitable irrespective of the stocking employed. The Net Present Values per hectare at 7% discount rate was $45/kg (as at Sep 2008), replacement plantations of either elite clones or improved seedlings are both highly profitable irrespective of the stocking employed. The Net Present Values per hectare at 7% discount rate was 107,824, 63,640,63,640, 163,162 and 104,055 for plantation options 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Plantation option 3 was predicted to give the greatest profit at any of the oil prices tested, followed by plantation option 1, 4 and 2. The break-even prices for tea tree oil production, using the production parameters in this model were104,055 for plantation options 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Plantation option 3 was predicted to give the greatest profit at any of the oil prices tested, followed by plantation option 1, 4 and 2. The break-even prices for tea tree oil production, using the production parameters in this model were 11.81/kg, 15.19/kg,15.19/kg, 10.72/kg and $12.96/kg for plantation options 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively.  相似文献   
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This study has developed the first formal breeding objective for the Australian tea tree plantation industry. Significant gains in profitability of Australian tea tree (Melaleuca alternifolia) could be made through selection for biomass and oil yield, while maintaining oil quality at acceptable levels. Economic values or weights (EWs), for breeding-objective traits were estimated based on a bio-economic model of a typical production system in Australia. Sensitivity of EWs to the production-system parameters was analysed by what-if scenarios. Selection indices and genetic responses were derived and sensitivity of selection index coefficients to variation in EWs and genetic parameters were analysed by Monte Carlo simulation. The EW for average leaf biomass (LB) and oil content (OC) had the net present value of AU29.53/kg and AU29.53/kg and AU2059 per mg/g, respectively. Among the production system parameters studied, discount rate and oil price had large impact on the two EWs, while operating costs changed the EW of LB but did not affect the that of OC. Using optimal selection index, positive expected responses in objective traits LB (36.2 kg/ha/year), OC (4.64 mg/g), and in all selection traits (i.e. juvenile OC, height, leafiness, and 1,8-cineole) were obtained except for terpinen-4-ol, at a 10% selection intensity (i = 1.76). Use of restricted selection index resulted in zero change in either 1,8-cineole or terpinen-4-ol content, but also in an opportunity cost especially in OC. The most important factor affecting the sensitivity of the selection index was the EW for OC.  相似文献   
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