Landscape effect for the Cervidaes Cervidae in human-dominated fragmented forests

We analyse the relationships between the main Cervidae [moose (Alces alces), red deer (Cervus elaphus) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus)] species and a complex of environmental factors in an extensive fragmented landscape of Central Lithuania. The highest determining positive influence on moose density was the proportions of wet forest sites. In forest complexes with fewer proportions of wet sites, the most important factor was the total forest area. The proportion of shrub cover, upland and dense undergrowth area, and road density also has significant effect on moose density. The total area of forest complexes has the highest determining positive influence on red deer density. The highest density of red deer was calculated in large forest complexes (>2,745 ha) with a <17.6 % proportion of pine and <36.5 % of deciduous forests. Other significant factors were core area, road density and urbanization level. Forest edge density has the highest influence on the roe deer populations. The highest density of roe deer was recorded on forest areas with >51 m ha^?1 of edges in wet forest (>25.4 %) dominating areas. The proportion of deciduous, coniferous mixed and pine forest, also shrub and density of edges also had significant effect.     

Differences between tight and loose cultures: a 33-nation study

With data from 33 nations, we illustrate the differences between cultures that are tight (have many strong norms and a low tolerance of deviant behavior) versus loose (have weak social norms and a high tolerance of deviant behavior). Tightness-looseness is part of a complex, loosely integrated multilevel system that comprises distal ecological and historical threats (e.g., high population density, resource scarcity, a history of territorial conflict, and disease and environmental threats), broad versus narrow socialization in societal institutions (e.g., autocracy, media regulations), the strength of everyday recurring situations, and micro-level psychological affordances (e.g., prevention self-guides, high regulatory strength, need for structure). This research advances knowledge that can foster cross-cultural understanding in a world of increasing global interdependence and has implications for modeling cultural change.     

Chloroplast DNA polymorphism of an exotic P. mugo Turra population introduced to seaside spit of Kursiu Nerija in Lithuania

The aim of this study was to elucidate the introduction history of P. mugo in the unique landscape of the Lithuanian seaside spit of Kursiu Nerija by assessing its genetic structure and the genetic diversity. The individuals were sampled in 12 populations within an area of 3 km × 50 km along the Lithuanian part of Kursiu Nerija. P. mugo was introduced over 200 years ago to prevent sand erosion by establishing a forest cover. Chloroplast DNA polymorphism of 220 individuals of P. mugo together with 18 P. sylvestris and 11 putative P. sylvestris × P. mugo hybrids was assessed by the aid of five microsatellite markers. The standard intra-population diversity indexes were calculated. The intra-specific variation between distinct morphotypes as well as the population differentiation within the most spread P. mugo ssp. rotundata morphotype was assessed based on the haplotype frequencies by hierarchical AMOVA, G_ST/R_ST test, UPGMA clustering and PCA methods. The genetic diversity of P. mugo in Kursiu Nerija was high (H_e = 0.95; 83 different haplotypes). All except one of the P. mugo populations sampled contained a notable share of private haplotypes. AMOVA revealed high intra-specific diversity but low differentiation between the P. mugo populations. Most of the haplotypic variance was within populations. The UPGMA clustering produced groups more corresponding to the sub-species morphotypes than the geography of the populations. There was no geographical pattern of reduction in genetic diversity towards the younger plantations. A strong candidate for a species-specific DNA marker was found. After several events of introduction, the genetic diversity of P. mugo in Kursiu Nerija is very high and is structured based on the sub-species morphotypes rather than geography. The high frequency of shared and notable frequency of private haplotypes in most of the populations indicate that the major part of the P. mugo material originates from a number of geographically and genetically related sources, which more likely are introductions from abroad that the local collections. The high frequency of private haplotypes in the northernmost populations leaves a possibility for minor introductions from other genetically distinct sources. The absence of private haplotypes in one of the sampled populations indicates the use of local seed collections. The large number of shared haplotypes provides a strong evidence for a geneflow among the P. mugo taxa.     

Unequal deployment of clones to seed orchards by considering genetic gain, relatedness and gene diversity

Related clones in seed orchards lead to inbreeding depressionand reduced genetic value of the seeds. This study aims to developthe methodology for deployment of related clones to seed orchardswhen the breeding value and the pedigree are available for eachcandidate. The following goals were considered: high geneticgain, high genetic gain adjusted for predicted inbreeding depression(net gain), high gene diversity, and high effective clone number.The selection strategies included truncation selection withor without relatedness restrictions, maximizing genetic gain(linear deployment) with or without restrictions on relatednessand maximizing net gain. The selection strategies were appliedto Norway spruce seed orchard candidates evaluated in clonaltests. The material comprised full-sib and half-sib relationships.Comparisons were made both at the same gene diversity and atthe effective clone number. Maximizing net gain by unequal rametnumber deployment resulted in considerable higher net gain anda considerable reduction of related ramets in many comparisons.Linear deployment restricted against related clones comparedat the same status number resulted in almost as high net gain.Reduction in gene diversity may be a more important reason toavoid relatives in seed orchards than the subsequent inbreedingfor achieving a high net gain.     

A stochastic frontier analysis of technical progress, efficiency change and productivity growth in the Pacific Northwest sawmill industry

Stochastic frontier analysis was employed to investigate technical efficiency and productivity growth in the sawmilling industry of the U.S. Pacific Northwest over the period 1968–2002. The results of our analysis indicate that productivity growth was strong over the 30-year study period, due almost exclusively to technical progress. The model developed in this analysis was used to examine the cause of employment declines in the sawmilling industry between 1988 and 1994. We found that that 62% of the decline was due to changes in output and non-labor input factors and 38% was due to technical change alone.     

Evaluating alternative methods for biophysical and cultural ecosystem services hotspot mapping in natural resource planning

Context

Data for biophysically modeled and Public Participatory GIS (PPGIS)-derived cultural ecosystem services have potential to identify natural resource management synergies and conflicts, but have rarely been combined. Ecosystem service hot/coldspots generated using different methods vary in their spatial extent and connectivity, with important implications.

Objectives

We map biophysically modeled and PPGIS-derived cultural services for six U.S. national forests using six hot/coldspot delineation methods. We evaluate the implications of hotspot methods for management within and outside of designated wilderness areas.

Methods

We used the ARIES and SolVES modeling tools to quantify four biophysically modeled and 11 largely cultural ecosystem services for six national forests in Colorado and Wyoming, USA. We mapped hot/coldspots using two quantile methods (top and bottom 10 and 33 % of values), two area-based methods (top and bottom 10 and 33 % of area), and two statistical methods (Getis-Ord Gi* at α = 0.05 and 0.10 significance level) and compare results within and outside wilderness areas.

Results

Delineation methods vary in their degree of conservatism for hot/coldspot extents and spatial clustering. Hotspots were more common in wilderness areas in national forests near the more densely populated Colorado Front Range, while coldspots were more common in wilderness areas in more urban-distant forests in northwest Wyoming.

Conclusions

Statistical hotspot methods of intermediate conservatism (i.e., Getis-Ord Gi*, α = 0.10 significance) may be most useful for ecosystem service hot/coldspot mapping to inform landscape scale planning. We also found spatially explicit evidence in support of past findings about public attitudes toward wilderness areas.

     

An intelligent control chart for monitoring of autocorrelated egg production process data based on a synergistic control strategy

Monitoring livestock production processes by means of statistical control charts can provide an important support for management. The non-stationary and autocorrelated characteristics of most data originating from such processes impede the direct introduction of these data into control charts. To deal with these characteristics Engineering Process Control strategies can be applied. Stationarity was achieved by modelling and subtracting the time dependent trend using a non-linear model. Next, the autocorrelation structure in the residual data is modelled and corrected for by means of an ARMA model. The resulting corrected stationary and independent residuals are then inserted in the traditional cusum control scheme. This combined use of Engineering Process Control strategies for modelling the unconventional statistical characteristics and Statistical Process Control strategies for constructing the control chart based on the resulting pre-processed data, is referred to as a Synergistic Control strategy. The developed cusum control chart was tested on data of two layer flocks. In both cases the control chart provided alarms for important problems in production and furthermore signalled problems that remained unnoticed by the layer managers. The amount of false alarms was acceptable. With this control scheme and the scheme of the average egg weight, control procedures for two important output parameters of the production process of consumption eggs are available. Furthermore, this strategy could provide a possible solution for other process parameters that also display non-stationarity and autocorrelation.     

Application of near infrared spectroscopy for authentication of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Picea abies</Emphasis> seed provenance

Authentication of seed provenance is an importance issue to avoid the negative impact of poor adaptation of progenies when planted outside their natural environmental conditions. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy as rapid and non-destructive method for authentication of Picea abies L. Karst seed provenances. For this purpose, five seed lots from Sweden, Finland, Poland and Lithuania each were used. NIR reflectance spectra were recorded on individual seeds (n = 150 seeds × 5 seed lots × 4 provenances = 3000 seeds) using XDS Rapid Content Analyzer from 780 to 2500 nm with a resolution of 0.5 nm. Classification model was developed by orthogonal projection to latent structures-discriminant analysis. The performance of the computed classification model was validated using two test sets—internal (the same seed lots as the model but excluded during model development; n = 600 seeds) and external (seed lots not included in the model; n = 1158 seeds). For the internal test, the model correctly recognized 99% of Swedish, Finnish and Polish samples and 97% of Lithuanian seeds. For the external test samples, the model correctly assigned 81% of Swedish, 96% of Finnish, 98% of Lithuanian and 93% of Polish seeds to their respective classes. The mean classification accuracy was 99 and 95% for internal and external test set, respectively. The spectral differences among seed lots were attributed to differences in chemical composition of seeds, presumably fatty acids and proteins, which are the dominant storage reserves in P. abies seeds. In conclusion, the results demonstrate that NIR spectroscopy is a very promising method for monitoring putative seed provenances and in seed certification.     

Efficiency of breeding strategy where grandparents — but not parents — contribute equally to the breeding population

? The objective was to optimise the strategy for maintaining the genetic balance in long-term breeding where the grandparents contribute equally to the breeding population, but the parents do not.

? The annual genetic progress under a budget constraint was compared for a number of scenarios. The factors considered were: genetic parameters, recruitment population size, mating number per grandparent, cost of plants and parents, selection age and time components. Phenotypic selection forward was assumed. Using more parents than grandparents affects the testing population only, thus, gene diversity loss and breeding population size remain constant.

? Using larger number of parents than grandparents was a superior strategy at all scenarios tested. The strategy with 6 parents per grandparent and 1% of the tested plants selected on their phenotype at age 15 for further mating is recommendable. The strategy to choose 6 parents per grandparent was robust over a heritability range 0.05 to 0.2. At a higher heritability, the optimum number of parents per grandparent was 2 to 4.

? Using larger number of parents than grandparents has the potential to improve annual genetic gain in the magnitude of 50% compared to the strategies currently used for Scots pine in Sweden.

     

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest

As global climate changes over the next century, forest productivity is expected to change as well. Using PRISM climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 plots, we developed a simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model to estimate the impacts of climate change on potential productivity of Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests of the United States. Productivity, measured by projected potential mean annual increment (PMAI) at culmination, is explained by the interaction of annual temperature, precipitation, and precipitation in excess of evapotranspiration through the growing season. By utilizing information regarding spatial error in the SAR model, the resulting spatial bias is reduced thereby improving the accuracy of the resulting maps. The model, coupled with climate change output from four generalized circulation models, was used to predict the productivity impacts of four different scenarios derived from the fourth IPCC special report on emissions, representing different future economic and environmental states of the world, viz., scenario A1B, A2, B1 (low growth, high economic development and low energy usage), and COMMIT. In these scenarios, regional average temperature is expected to increase from 0.5 to 4.5 °C, while precipitation shows no clear trend over time. For the west and east side of the Cascade Mountains, respectively, PMAI increases: 7% and 20% under A1B scenario; 8% and 23% under scenario A2; 5% and 15% under scenario B1, and 2% and 5% under the COMMIT scenario. These projections should be viewed as potential changes in productivity, since they do not reflect the mitigating effects of any shifts in management or public policy. For managers and policy makers, the results suggest the relative magnitude of effects and the potential variability of impacts across a range of climate scenarios.