Analysis of a Long-term Experiment with Repeated-measurement Models

Long‐term experiments are a classical case of repeated measurements. Traits are measured on the same experimental unit over many years so that correlations arise between the observations made on the same plot in consecutive years. This paper describes the analysis of a three‐crop‐rotation long‐term experiment. We analysed the yields of the crops and the organic carbon content in the topsoil over 30 consecutive years. Several variance–covariance approaches are discussed and the trait‐specific best fit is interpreted. Mixed models are used to describe the structure of the experiment. Both yields and soil organic carbon show a more or less pronounced variance heterogeneity. Especially for yields, the heterogeneity of cycles and years is dominant. The consideration of correlations results in a better model fit in all cases.     

浅谈建立郑州市道路路面养护管理系统

路面管理系统是通过对路面运行状况、使用性能、使用周期、进行对比、分析，预测路面管理的最佳养护预算投资并在最佳养护经济投资条件等各种因素限制下，寻求道路养护管理最佳战略决策。     

Demography of Abutilon theoprasti and Setaria faberi in three crop rotation systems

Field experiments were conducted to characterize the demography of Abutilon theophrasti and Setaria faberi in a conventionally managed 2‐year (maize/soya bean) rotation, and in 3‐year (maize/soya bean/triticale + red clover) and 4‐year (maize/soya bean/triticale + lucerne/lucerne) rotations managed with 72% and 79% lower herbicide inputs respectively. Rates of weed seedling recruitment, seedling survival and adult plant fecundity were determined for populations in each phase of each rotation and used to calculate annual rates of weed population change, Δ. In both years of the study, Δ for A. theophrasti populations declined or remained stable in all three rotation systems. Despite greater rates of seedling survival and fecundity in maize and soya bean in the 3‐ and 4‐year rotations, increases in Δ for A. theophrasti populations were prevented in these systems because of low fecundity in triticale and low seedling survival and fecundity in lucerne. For Setaria faberi populations, Δ remained stable in the 2‐year rotation, increased in the 3‐year rotation in both years, and increased in the 4‐year rotation in 1 year. The results of this study indicate that when herbicide use is reduced, rotations that include triticale and lucerne can facilitate the suppression of A. theophrasti. Rotations that include lucerne can contribute to restraining S. faberi population growth, given adequate levels of seedling mortality in this crop.     

松嫩平原羊草草地水淹干扰恢复过程的群落动态

根据随机取样的测定数据，经过幂函数和多元回归分析及相关检验，揭示了草地水淹干扰对羊草 寸草苔、羊草 杂类草群范数量性状的变化规律。水淹干扰对草地植被的物种组成及其比例有明显的影响。水淹后基本恢复到正常草地的种类数量和生产量配置大约需要6—7年。随着生境水分减少和土壤变干，羊草种群的数量和生物量均以幂函数形式增加，而寸草苔和杂类草的数量和生物量则呈先增后降的变化过程。     

草甘膦在茶园中的应用研究

草甘膦是一种具有内吸传导、杀草谱广、毒性低等特性的新型化学除草剂,对根除茶园常见杂草有特效。用草甘膦防除茶园杂草的最佳浓度因杂草种类不同而异,以一、二年生杂草为主的茶园用0.10％的浓度为宜,以多年生杂草为主的茶园用0.15％的浓度较好。用液量以杂草充分湿润为度。全年喷药一次或二次即可,若喷一次,宜在五月下旬进行;若秋季草害较重,则在八月下旬复喷一次。使用该方法除草,全年只需耗药费4.80元～6.40/亩,除草效果优于全年人工除草三次者,节省除草工7～9个/亩,增产5～7％,对保持茶园生态平衡,提高茶叶品质均有益。     

北疆苜蓿属植物繁育系统的研究

采用等位酶技术，对北疆苜蓿属植物种群的繁育系统进行了研究。结果表明，北疆苜蓿属植物种群为外繁育系统，黄花苜蓿、多变苜蓿、紫花苜蓿基因组成中杂合体过多，均保持较低的自交结实率。参试苜蓿属植物表现某种程度的内繁育衰退现象，地理或生殖隔离等因素可能是导致个别种群出现内繁育衰退现象的原因之一。对北疆苜蓿属遗传资源保护时，既要选择遗传基础丰富的种和种群以保持最多的遗传变异，还要注意选择具有不同等位的种群以保持原有的基因和基因频率。     

一类挖坑机械钻头横向振动系统的最优控制问题

建立了一类挖坑机械钻头横向振动系统的数学模型,并以阻尼函数作为控制变量,研究了该系统的最优控制问题,得出了两个定理。     

岷江上游乡村社区贫困成因及扶贫模式初探——以四川黑水国家扶贫开发重点县为例

农村发展包括乡村社区发展和农户发展两个方面 ,二者不能偏废。以岷江上游国家扶贫开发重点县———黑水为例 ,探讨乡村社区贫困成因及扶贫模式。社区贫困是多种因素长期综合作用的结果 ,包括自然环境条件、传统习俗与贫困文化结合、道路交通贫乏、森林资源利用政策以及落后守旧的农业生产技术和手段。乡村社区扶贫不同于区域扶贫 ,应以新村建设和易地迁建为主 ,辅以劳务输出、旅游开发和教育扶持。     

胶合板厂生产规划模型与运用

本文根据胶合板厂实际情况，建立了杨木胶合板厂生产规划模型。该模型考虑各主要设备工段、产品组合、产品混合、产品价格、流动资金、原材料供应以及市场约束等问题。本模型能够满足市场竞争，获取最佳利润，同时还能解决胶合板厂“三板”（表、背、芯单板）不平衡问题。     

Spring invasion of Heterodera schachtii in sugarbeet; a simulation study

A simulation model was developed for the spring invasion of the beet cyst nematode,Heterodera schachtii Schmidt, into sugarbeet roots, according to the state variable approach. This model describes the processes of egghatch, emergence of second stage larvae from cysts, migration to roots and penetration into roots quantitatively, using published data.In 1983 a field experiment was conducted to test this model.H. schachtii cysts were introduced at depths 6–29 cm in PVC-cylinders, buried in the soil. The rooting depth of sugarbeet seedlings, growing in these cylinders, was limited to 5 cm by 50 m mesh nylon gauze. Every 10 days the second stage larvae, which had penetrated into the roots of these seedlings were counted. After 50 days, about 40% of the eggs had hatched. More than 20% of the emerged larvae penetrated if the cysts had been buried undeeply, and only 4% if the cysts had been buried at 29 cm depth.The model predicted the course of penetration into the root during the first 40 days with reasonable accuracy (r²=0.79), but in the 5th period of 10 days the model made an overestimation of more than 100%. Egghatch after 50 days was correctly simulated. The differences in penetration into the root between the model and the experiment might result from an oversimplified simulation of the penetration success or the neglection of mortality of second stage larvae. Detailed experiments should be done to provide better parameters for these factors.Samenvatting Volgens de toestandsvariabele-benadering werd een simulatiemodel ontwikkeld van de voorjaarspenetratie van het bietecystenaaltje. Het model beschrijft aan de hand van literatuurgegevens het uikomen van de eieren, het verlaten van de cyst door de larven, de migratie naar en de penetratie in de wortel.In 1983 werd een veldproef uitgevoerd om het model te toetsen. Cysten vanH. schachtii werden op 5 dieptes tussen 6 en 29 cm ingegraven in PVC-cylinders, welke waren verzonken in de bodem. De bewortelingsdiepte van de suikerbiete-zaailingen die hierin groeiden werd beperkt tot 5 cm door nylon gaas van 50 m maaswijdte. Elke 10 dagen werden de larven geteld die in de wortels van deze plantjes waren gepenetreerd. Na 50 dagen was 40% van de eieren uitgekomen. Meer dan 20% van de gelokte larven penetreerden als de cysten ondiep waren ingegraven, en slechts 4% als de cysten op 29 cm diepte waren ingegraven.Gedurende de eerste 40 dagen werd het verloop van de penetratie in de wortel met redelijke nauwkeurigheid door het model voorspeld (r²=0.79). In de 5e periode van 10 dagen maakte het model echter een overschatting van meer dan 100%. Het uitkomen van de eieren werd correct gesimuleerd. De verschillen in penetratie tussen het model en de proef zouden het gevolg kunnen zijn van een oververeenvoudigde simulatie van het penetratiesucces of van het verwaarlozen van de mortaliteit van de migrerende larven. Betere gegevens hierover zullen moeten komen uit detailproeven.