Probabilities for decision analysis in agriculture and rural resource economics: The need for a paradigm change

The notion that we can rationalize risky choice in terms of expected utility appears to be widely if not universally accepted in the agricultural and resource economics profession. While there have been many attempts to assess the risk preferences of farmers, there are few studies of their beliefs about uncertain events encoded as probabilities. We may attribute this neglect to scepticism in the profession about the concept of subjective probability. The general unwillingness to embrace this theory and its associated methods has all too often caused researchers to focus on problems for which frequency data are available, rather than on problems that are more important where data are generally sparse or lacking. In response, we provide a brief reminder of the merits of the subjectivist approach and extract some priorities for future research should there be a change of heart among at least some of the profession.     

沿海滩涂土壤盐分空间分布的三维随机模拟与不确定性评价

为揭示滨海滩涂地区土壤盐分三维空间分布特点并提供相关技术方法与思路,以苏北海涂围垦区典型地块为例,综合采用三维克里格和随机模拟方法对土体盐分含量的三维空间分布进行估值、模拟与对比分析,并对土体盐分三维分布的空间不确定性进行评价。结果显示,由克里格法得到的土壤盐分空间分布具有明显平滑效应,减小了数据间的空间差异并改变了数据的空间结构;序贯高斯模拟结果整体分布相对离散,突出了原始数据分布的波动性;研究区土壤盐分随深度增加而升高,存在一定次生盐渍化风险;围垦后研究区土壤盐渍化的发生概率已有所降低,轻度盐化土和中     

液相色谱法测定氟尼辛葡甲胺注射液含量的不确定度评定

为提高检验结果的准确性,确定检验过程中的关键影响因素,对液相色谱法测定氟尼辛葡甲胺注射液含量进行不确定度评估。依据《中国兽药典》2020 版氟尼辛葡甲胺注射液质量标准对其含量进行测定,分析影响不确定度的因素,参照 JJF 1135 - 2005《化学分析测量不确定度评定》和JJF 1059.1-2012《测量不确定度评定与表示》中的规定及要求,对检验过程中的不确定因素进行评估,根据CNAS-GL006:2019 构建了氟尼辛含量的不确定度评估数学模型,对检测过程中各种不确定度的来源进行分析,并计算合成相对标准不确定度和扩展不确定度?氟尼辛葡甲胺注射液含量的不确定度结果表示为(102.2 ± 2.72)% ,（k = 2,置信区间为 95% ）,主要来源于仪器重复性?     

气候变化影响下作物模型的不确定性

作物生理生长过程准确描述及产量的精确估计在社会食品安全和农业生产中起着至关重要的作用.作物生长模型作为一种监测作物生长的数值模拟方法,已被证明是作物生长、产量预测和情景分析的有力工具.然而,在当前气候变化背景下,气候走向的不确定性以及极端气候事件的增加,都对粮食生产产生了重大影响,如何对作物生长进行准确模拟成为当前的热点关注话题.同时,除了气候变化的不确定性外,由于作物模型本身是实际作物生长过程的简化,物理结构并不完美,同时数据采集的随机性和初始条件的区域异质性,导致模拟结果不确定性较大.因此,在论述作物模型的国内外研究进展的基础上,探讨气候变化的不确定性对作物模型的影响以及作物模型本身的不确定性,概述了模型-数据融合方法的类型及特点,以及区域尺度上作物模型与遥感数据结合所采用的减小不确定性的方法,以期为相关研究提供一定参考.     

紫黑色作物花色苷实验室定量检测方法研究

为了寻求快速、经济地测定自然界中紫黑色作物总花色苷含量的方法,利用酸性乙醇对黑元麦、茄子、葡萄3种不同作物进行花色苷提取,并采用pH示差法和差减法2种不同的实验室方法对3种样品总花色苷含量进行留样分析再测定。结果表明,黑元麦、葡萄采用pH示差法和差减法这2种测定方法的结果精确度和准确性没有显著性差异,且样品进行留样再检测时发现,2种样品测定结果之差的绝对值均小于测定结果质量不确定度,可以说明黑元麦、葡萄花色苷实验室定量检测pH示差法和差减法均适用。茄子采用pH示差法测定值相对标准偏差为2.20%,精确度明显好于差减法;从质控图看,茄子检出值出现1次连续4个点上升的情况,说明茄子皮利用差减法测定结果准确性差;从留样再检测结果可以看出,利用差减法测定2次结果之差的绝对值为0.023 mg/g,小于测定结果质量不确定度0.011 mg/g,说明茄子花色苷pH示差法检测结果可信赖,差减法检测存在问题。     

电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法测量土壤中有效锌含量的不确定度评估

对电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法(ICP-OES)测定土壤有效锌含量的不确定度进行评定,分析了整个检测过程产生不确定度的来源,对称样量、浸提液体积、标准系列溶液配制、线性标准曲线拟合、测量重复性等产生的不确定度分量进行计算,量化给出扩展不确定度。待测土壤中有效锌含量最终结果表示:w(Zn)=(1.12±0.10)mg/kg,包含因子k=2,置信概率为95%。测量过程中,标准溶液制备所产生的不确定度最大。因此,在ICP-OES法测定土壤样品有效锌时应足够重视标准溶液制备与曲线拟合过程,以减小测量不确定度。本文研究结果为控制ICP-OES法测定土壤有效锌数据质量提供了理论依据。     

Uncertain and multi-objective programming models for crop planting structure optimization

Crop planting structure optimization is a significant way to increase agricultural economic benefits and improve agricultural water management. The complexities of fluctuating stream conditions, varying economic profits, and uncertainties and errors in estimated modeling parameters, as well as the complexities among economic, social, natural resources and environmental aspects, have led to the necessity of developing optimization models for crop planting structure which consider uncertainty and multi-objectives elements. In this study, three single-objective programming models under uncertainty for crop planting structure optimization were developed, including an interval linear programming model, an inexact fuzzy chance-constrained programming (IFCCP) model and an inexact fuzzy linear programming (IFLP) model. Each of the three models takes grayness into account. Moreover, the IFCCP model considers fuzzy uncertainty of parameters/variables and stochastic characteristics of constraints, while the IFLP model takes into account the fuzzy uncertainty of both constraints and objective functions. To satisfy the sustainable development of crop planting structure planning, a fuzzy-optimization-theory-based fuzzy linear multi-objective programming model was developed, which is capable of reflecting both uncertainties and multi-objective. In addition, a multi-objective fractional programming model for crop structure optimization was also developed to quantitatively express the multi-objective in one optimization model with the numerator representing maximum economic benefits and the denominator representing minimum crop planting area allocation. These models better reflect actual situations, considering the uncertainties and multi-objectives of crop planting structure optimization systems. The five models developed were then applied to a real case study in Minqin County, north-west China. The advantages, the applicable conditions and the solution methods of each model are expounded. Detailed analysis of results of each model and their comparisons demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of the models developed, therefore decision makers can choose the appropriate model when making decisions.     

考虑风险价值的不确定性水资源优化配置

保障区域农业用水的可持续发展,对水资源进行优化配置至关重要。由于粮食主产区水资源配置过程中存在许多不确定性因素,在追求最小用水成本时,也存在着较大的风险,因此该文以三江平原涵盖的七台河、佳木斯、双鸭山、鹤岗和鸡西5个重要粮食主产区为研究区域,以区间两阶段随机规划模型为基础,引入风险偏好,构建地表水和地下水优化配置模型。结果表明,双鸭山和鸡西的配水过程中地表水缺水量很大,主要开采利用地下水;佳木斯作为粮食生产面积较大的行政区,需要外来水进行补给;七台河和鹤岗的种植面积较小,综合考虑引水成本和粮食收益,引用较少的外来水来降低成本;最后得出不同来水水平下,各种风险偏好下水资源优化配置的最小成本的变化规律,即在低来水水平下,用水成本从344.2×108~355.4×108元增加到411.5×108~430.7×108元;在高来水水平下,总用水成本从422.5×108~435.3×108元降低到351.7×108~365.3×108元;在中来水水平时,总用水成本则呈现出先增加后减少的规律。该模型兼有区间两阶段和风险价值模型的特点,综合衡量成本和风险,可有效节约用水成本,并能增强水资源系统规避风险的能力,并以佳木斯2014年实际用水为例,计算得到相对误差在15%以内,较为真实地反映水资源优化配置过程中的不确定性和风险性,为提高水资源利用效率和区域水资源规划管理提供依据。     

残膜对土壤水分入渗和蒸发的影响及不确定性分析

为探究残膜对土壤水分入渗和蒸发过程的影响规律,通过室内土柱试验,设置6个残膜量水平(0、80、160、320、640和1 280 kg/hm2),研究了残膜对湿润锋运移、土壤水分分布、累积入渗量和累积蒸发量及其不确定性的影响。结果表明:随残膜量增加,湿润锋垂直运移速率和累积入渗量逐渐减小;残膜量80 kg/hm2时,湿润锋运移速率大幅下降;累积蒸发量随残膜量增加而递减而蒸发系数呈递增趋势,土壤保水能力减弱;随残膜量增加,0~10和20~45 cm含水率呈降低趋势,而土壤水分的变异系数呈增加趋势,残膜加剧了土壤水分垂直分布的变异性,残膜量320 kg/hm2的处理会出现表土层"板结"现象;基于Gibbs抽样算法分析表明,Kostiakov入渗模型和Rose蒸发模型各参数的95%后验置信区间上下限的差值和标准差均随残膜量增加而增大,累积入渗量和累积蒸发量的95%后验置信区间面积呈增大趋势,土壤累积入渗量和累积蒸发量的不确定性随残膜增多而增强。该研究可探明残膜污染区的土壤水分运动规律,并为提高Kostiakov模型、Rose模型的模拟效率和模拟精度提供参考。     

固相萃取-气相色谱方法测定水中毒死蜱含量的不确定度评定

本文建立了利用固相萃取-气相色谱法测定水中毒死蜱含量的方法,通过数学模型分析并计算了检测过程中的不确定度分量,并计算出相对扩展不确定度。