气相色谱法测定稻谷中三环唑的不确定度分析

采用气相色谱法对稻谷中三环唑残留量的不确定度进行评估。根据JJF 1135—2005化学分析测量不确定度评定和JJF 1059.1—2012测量不确定度评定与表示中的相关规定,对测定过程中可能引入的不确定度进行分析和评估,建立了测定稻谷中三环唑残留量不确定度评定的数学模型,分析不确定度的主要来源,并将各分量进行合成。得出当稻谷中三环唑的量为0.262mg/kg时,其扩展不确定度为0.020 mg/kg (k=2)。     

Evaluation of stock management procedures for walleye pollock in northern waters of the Sea of Japan using a simulation

To evaluate walleye pollock stock management procedures in the northern waters of the Sea of Japan, 30-year population dynamics, including uncertainties, were forecast. Errors in current stock size estimation, variability in future recruitment and changes in future fishing mortalities were incorporated. Results of virtual population analysis (VPA) from resampled catch-at-age data with bootstrap methods was used as the current stock size estimation with uncertainty. Performances of each scenario were evaluated using conservation, utilization, stability and reliability factors. Twenty-two management scenarios and continuing the current fishing mortality were evaluated. Scenarios with minor regulation changes and continuing the current fishing mortality showed poor stock conservation performances. Scenarios with minor regulation changes produced good short-term but poor long-term utilization. Stabilities were poor in continuing the current fishing mortality and fishing ban scenarios. Reliability in all scenarios after 30 years was smaller than in continuing the current fishing mortality; however, small differences among scenarios were observed. The simulation results indicated that multilateral assessment is needed to evaluate the management candidates. Uncertainty caused by recruitment variability mostly affected future population dynamics. The role of simulations in the production of effective scientific advice is discussed.     

Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.     

A GIS-based plant prediction model for wetland ecosystems

An existing non-spatial model for the prediction of response of wetland plant species on ecological factors has been transformed into a GIS-based prediction model which produces spatial output at the landscape scale. The input, spatial patterns of the ecological factors, were constructed with geostatistical spatial interpolation (kriging). With this GIS-based model the spatial patterns of presence and absence of 78 wetland plant species are predicted for an area with wetlands in the Netherlands of approximately 500 square kilometers. The GIS-based model has been validated, and the estimated uncertainty of the input has been propagated through the model. At the species level the output shows spatially coherent and non-random patterns. The validation is affected by the propagation of input errors through the model. The number of valid predictions declines approximately 10–20% when 95% confidence intervals are used in the validation. This study shows that it is feasible to use a geostatistical interpolation method to construct spatial patterns of ecological factors on a landscape scale and to use these patterns as input for a GIS-based prediction model. The added uncertainty on the input values however, affects the number of valid predictions of the model.     

CFG桩复合地基承载力模糊能度可靠性分析方法

在分析CFG桩复合地基承载力计算方法的基础上，根据其影响因素的区间性与模糊性特点，提出了采用三角模糊数表示计算参数取值，建立出CFG桩复合地基承载力模糊分析模型.通过探讨三角模糊数构造方法，建立出CFG桩复合地基承载力计算参数三角模糊确定方法，然后，基于给定安全系数与承载力设计构建功能函数，引入截集理论与区间运算规则，建立CFG桩复合地基承载力模糊能度可靠性分析方法.工程实例分析表明了该方法对CFG桩复合地基承载力进行分析计算的合理性与易操作性.在勘察数据与设计资料有限，不能直接采用概率可靠性分析方法的情况下，该方法为CFG桩复合地基承载能力可靠性分析与评价提供了一种精度较高的方法.     

大豆水溶性蛋白含量测定的不确定度评定

建立大豆水溶性蛋白含量测定（NY/T 1205-2006）不确定度评定的数学模型,对检测过程中带来的各个不确定度分量进行识别和量化,提出应用该方法检测的不确定度评定结果。     

转基因油菜TOPAS 19/2质粒分子多家协同实验及不确定度评定

质粒分子是转基因产品核酸定量检测的一类新型标准物质,具有易制备、周期短、成本低等特点。采用实时荧光定量PCR技术,并协同7家实验室对转基因油菜TOPAS 19/2质粒分子进行了基因组的可替代性研究、协同实验研究及不确定度评定。T检验表明,质粒和基因组所产生的内源和外源基因标准曲线的斜率和线性相关系数没有显著性差异。对多家定值的数据进行了统计分析得出,TOPAS19/2质粒分子的量值结果0.910,扩展标准不确定度（K=2）为0.013。     

Sensitivity analyses for four pesticide leaching models

Sensitivity analyses using a one-at-a-time approach were carried out for leaching models which have been widely used for pesticide registration in Europe (PELMO, PRZM, PESTLA and MACRO). Four scenarios were considered for simulation of the leaching of two theoretical pesticides in a sandy loam and a clay loam soil, each with a broad distribution across Europe. Input parameters were varied within bounds reflecting their uncertainty and the influence of these variations on model predictions was investigated for accumulated percolation at 1-m depth and pesticide loading in leachate. Predictions for the base-case scenarios differed between chromatographic models and the preferential flow model MACRO for which large but transient pesticide losses were predicted in the clay loam. Volumes of percolated water predicted by the four models were affected by a small number of input parameters and to a small extent only, suggesting that meteorological variables will be the main drivers of water balance predictions. In contrast to percolation, predictions for pesticide loss were found to be sensitive to a large number of input parameters and to a much greater extent. Parameters which had the largest influence on the prediction of pesticide loss were generally those related to chemical sorption (Freundlich exponent nf and distribution coefficient Kf) and degradation (either degradation rates or DT50, QTEN value). Nevertheless, a significant influence of soil properties (field capacity, bulk density or parameters defining the boundary between flow domains in MACRO) was also noted in at least one scenario for all models. Large sensitivities were reported for all models, especially PELMO and PRZM, and sensitivity was greater where only limited leaching was simulated. Uncertainty should be addressed in risk assessment procedures for crop-protection products.     

论司法公正理念之漂移——程序正义与实体正义比较分析

程序正义和实体正义是司法公正的两个方面。实体正义以遵循程序正义为前提，程序正义是实体正义的常规手段。实体正义本身含有诸多不确定因素，程序正义同时具有相对的独立性和稳定性。程序正义对实体正义的实现具有保障作用。在实体正义和程序正义碰撞下，应倾向程序正义。     

高效液相色谱法测定巴氏杀菌乳中糠氨酸含量的不确定度评定

目的 对高效液相色谱法测定巴氏杀菌乳中糠氨酸含量的不确定度进行评定。方法 依据《NY/T939—2016 巴氏杀菌乳和UHT灭菌乳中复原乳的鉴定》测定巴氏杀菌乳中糠氨酸的含量。通过建立数学模型,全面分析试验过程中各不确定度的来源,并对其进行量化评定,计算合成相对标准不确定度和扩展不确定度。结果 当牛奶中糠氨酸含量为7.3 mg/100 g 蛋白质时,测量结果的扩展不确定度为0.4 mg/100 g蛋白质（k=2）。结论 方法中测量不确定度的主要来源为糠氨酸标准物质称量、标准工作液的配制、标准曲线的拟合和样品水解液中蛋白质含量测定终点判定。