湖南省粮食产量波动的影响因素分析及预测

旨在维护国家稳定,为预判粮食生产前景、提高粮食生产效率、保障粮食安全提供理论依据。利用湖南省统计数据,运用灰色关联分析法筛选关联性较强的影响因素,并建立GM(1,N)预测模型预测粮食产量。2008—2017年与湖南省粮食产量关联度最大的影响因素是粮食作物播种面积和农业机械总动力;科技因素是影响2008—2017年湖南省粮食产量的主要因素,其次是自然因素,社会因素;2018—2027年湖南省粮食产量有较小波动,且农业机械总动力和财政农业支出影响较大;农业机械总动力在前后十年对粮食产量都有较重要的影响,越来越占据主导地位。粮食产量受国家政策的影响,受农业机械总动力影响最大,维持产量水平需高度重视农业机械化水平,稳步提高粮食作物播种面积。     

基于层次分析法的食用菌电商平台营销系统的改进模型

针对食用菌电商平台营销策略的改进问题,基于层次分析法,设计了食用菌电商平台营销策略评价指标体系,并结合模糊综合评价模型对该评价体系进行了定量和定性分析,构建了评价模型。该评价模型能够科学、全面地反映食用菌电商平台的营销能力和发展情况,对提高食用菌企业和电商平台的营销能力具有重要意义。     

西双版纳南览河流域常见观赏蝶种及其寄主植物资源调查

西双版纳勐海县境内南览河流域具有良好的天然植被,蝴蝶种类繁多。为了开展重要观赏蝶种的人工繁育试验,2013—2018年对南览河中低海拔地带的常见观赏蝴蝶及其野生寄主植物资源开展了进一步的深入调查,结果表明,经过5年定点调查和沿线观察,在区域内发现兼具较高观赏价值及人工繁育潜力的蝶种46个;通过观察野外成虫的产卵活动,结合野外套袋及室内饲养幼虫,发现蝴蝶寄主植物38种,初步查明了相关蝶种的野生寄主植物资源。调查工作可为筛选出当地适生优良寄主植物、进一步开展相关蝶种的人工养殖试验提供参考。     

甲壳素对连作平邑甜茶生长、光合及抗氧化酶的影响

以苹果连作土盆栽的平邑甜茶幼苗为试材,探讨了0、0.5、1.0和2.5 g·kg-1不同施入量的甲壳素对其光合速率、活性氧含量及抗氧化酶活性的影响。结果表明,1.0 g·kg-1的甲壳素处理能显著促进幼苗株高、地径,干样质量和根冠比的增加,根冠比为对照的1.51倍;明显提高了幼苗叶片光合色素含量、净光合速率和蒸腾速率,其中光合速率为对照的1.30倍;同时提高了幼苗叶片超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化物酶(POD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)和抗坏血酸过氧化物酶(APX)活性,分别为对照的1.10倍、1.85倍、1.77倍和1.43倍;减少了叶片丙二醛(MDA)、过氧化氢(H2O2)和超氧阴离子的积累,分别为对照的73%、62%和34%,降低了脯氨酸(Pro)和可溶性糖含量。当甲壳素施用量为2.5 g·kg-1时则显著抑制平邑甜茶幼苗生长,降低幼苗叶片光合速率和抗氧化酶活性,并使超氧阴离子和脯氨酸含量明显上升。因此,适宜用量的甲壳素能减轻苹果的连作障碍。     

PDCA循环理论在阅读推广中的应用——以安徽省图书馆为例

结合PDCA循环特性和图书馆阅读推广特点,分析PDCA循环理论应用于图书馆阅读推广活动的必要性和可行性,构建了PDCA循环理论在图书馆阅读推广工作中的应用模式,提出以用户为关注焦点、注重过程管理和持续改进以提高阅读推广活动实效。     

Comparative soil distribution and dissipation of phoxim and thiamethoxam and their efficacy in controlling Bradysia odoriphaga Yang and Zhang in Chinese chive ecosystems

Bradysia odoriphaga Yang and Zhang (the chive gnat) is the major insect pest affecting Chinese chives (Allium tuberosum Rottl. ex Spreng.) in Northern China. Only three insecticide products are registered for its control. In the present study, we compared the persistence and distribution of thiamethoxam and phoxim in soil and determined their long-acting control effects against B. odoriphaga and two other secondary pests, Thrips alliorum Priesner and the Asiatic onion leaf miner Acrolepia alliella Semenov and Kuznetsov (Lepidoptera: Acrolepiidae), after a single soil application using the directional spray-washing method during the early Chinese chive root-rearing period. Under the same applied dosage, the rhizosphere soil at a depth of 4.0–10.0 cm had concentrations of thiamethoxam and phoxim ranging from 2.21 to 7.44 mg/kg and 0.09–0.44 mg/kg, respectively, at the 7th day after application. The half-lives of thiamethoxam and phoxim in the soil were 27.5 and 6.7 days, respectively. Thiamethoxam persisted for 210 days, whereas phoxim only persisted for 45 days in the soil and plants. In addition, thiamethoxam applied at 6.0 kg a.i./ha maintained a low population density of B. odoriphaga, T. alliorum and A. alliella for nine months longer than phoxim. In conclusion, thiamethoxam may help farmers more effectively manage B. odoriphaga and other secondary pests on Chinese chive and reduce the costs of insecticide use while sustaining protection.     

A new species of Malus in China,Malus shizongensis Liu sp. nov

Based on morphological, molecular biological, and molecular systematic studies, we describe here a new species of Malus from Yunnan, China. We compared the morphology of this new species, Malus shizongensis Liu sp. nov, with three Malus species, including M. hupehensis, M. baccata, and M. micromalus. Although the appearance of M. shizongensis was similar to these three species, it differed in height, branch color, branch hair, and flower color. To better identify the taxonomy of this new species, genome of M. shizongensis and that of seven Malus species, including M. prunifolia, M. sylvestris, M. sieversii, M. hupehensis, M. baccata, M. robusta, and M. micromalus were analyzed. A phylogenetic tree based on genome analysis indicated that M. shizongensis was close to M. hupehensis. Furthermore, M. shizongensis had its species-specific SNPs, and the number of species-specific SNPs was similar to that of three close species(M. hupehensis, M. baccata, and M. micromalus). Based on the above information, we named this new species as M. shizongensis Liu sp. nov.     

Modelling Wheat Stomatal Resistance in Hourly Time Steps from Micrometeorological Variables and Soil Water Status

An accurate estimation of stomatal resistance (r_S) also under drought stress conditions is of pivotal importance for any process‐based prediction of transpiration and the energy budget of real crop canopies and quantification of drought stress. A new model for r_S was developed and parameterized for winter wheat using data from field experiments accounting for the influences of net radiation (R_Net), air temperature (T_Air) and vapour pressure deficit of the atmosphere (VPD) interacting with an average water potential in the rooted soil (ψ_RootedSoil). r_S is simulated with a limiting factor approach as maximum of the metabolic (related to photosynthesis) and hydraulic (related to drought stress) acting influences assuming that, if drought stress occurs, it will dominate stomatal control: r_S = max(r_S(T_Air), r_S(R_Net), r_S(VPD, ψ_RootedSoil)). This transitional approach is suited to reproduce measured daily time courses of r_S with a varying accuracy for the single measurement dates but performed satisfactorily for the whole data set (r² = 0.63, RMSE = 59 s m^?1, EF = 0.60). This new semi‐empiric approach calculates r_S directly from external environmental conditions. Therefore, it can be easily implemented in existing model frameworks as link between operational crop growth models that use the concept of radiation use efficiency instead of mechanistic photosynthesis modelling and soil–vegetation–atmosphere transport models.     

Drought Tolerance and Water Use of Cereal Crops: A Focus on Sorghum as a Food Security Crop in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) faces twin challenges of water stress and food insecurity – challenges that are already pressing and are projected to grow. Sub‐Saharan Africa comprises 43 % arid and semi‐arid area, which is projected to increase due to climate change. Small‐scale, rainfed agriculture is the main livelihood source in arid and semi‐arid areas of SSA. Because rainfed agriculture constitutes more than 95 % of agricultural land use, water scarcity is a major limitation to production. Crop production, specifically staple cereal crop production, will have to adapt to water scarcity and improved water productivity (output per water input) to meet food requirements. We propose inclusion and promotion of drought‐tolerant cereal crops in arid and semi‐arid agro‐ecological zones of SSA where water scarcity is a major limitation to cereal production. Sorghum uniquely fits production in such regions, due to high and stable water‐use efficiency, drought and heat tolerance, high germplasm variability, comparative nutritional value and existing food value chain in SSA. However, sorghum is socio‐economically and geographically underutilized in parts of SSA. Sorghum inclusion and/or promotion in arid and semi‐arid areas of SSA, especially among subsistence farmers, will improve water productivity and food security.     

常利率通货膨胀下有扰动的双复合Poisson-Geometric过程的两险种风险模型

考虑常利率及通货膨胀下有扰动的双复合Poisson-Geometric过程的两险种风险模型,运用鞅方法得到破产概率满足的Lundberg不等式和一般公式,当保费和索赔服从指数分布和混合指数分布时,得到破产概率的精确表达式。