基于Mixture模型的叶片式抛送装置内气固两相流模拟

为了揭示叶片式抛送装置抛送物料时内部气流和物料复杂的流动特性以优化设计和指导运用,应用计算流体力学软件Fluent中的Mixture多相流模型、标准k-ε湍流模型与SIMPLEC算法,对抛送装置内气固两相流动进行了数值模拟,并将计算结果与抛送装置内物料运动的高速摄像试验结果进行了比较,物料速度的模拟值和高速摄像实测值基本吻合。在分析了物料运动规律基础上,对其叶片数、进料速度以及物料体积浓度的不同变化作了对比模拟。研究结果表明：数值模型可预测叶片式抛送装置的输送性能以及最佳喂入量;4叶片较3和5叶片更有利于抛送;进料速度对物料在叶轮区的体积分布规律影响较大,在最佳喂入量范围内,进料速度越大,出口处物料浓度越大,抛离速度也越大,装置输送性能越好;超过此范围时,随进料速度增大,进料口处物料浓度增大而出口处物料浓度减小,装置极易堵塞;进料口物料体积浓度的变化只影响抛送叶轮内以及圆形外壳出口区域的物料体积浓度,而对其物料速度分布规律及速度大小影响不大。该研究可为叶片式抛送装置工作参数优化提供参考。     

How to extrapolate a withdrawal time from an EHSLC published detection time: A Monte Carlo simulation appraisal

Reason for performing study: For legitimate medications, veterinarians must advise the owners or trainers of horses on appropriate withholding times after a treatment, to avoid the risk of incurring a positive drug test. Objective: To explore the safety span to select that a veterinarian may extrapolate a tailored withdrawal time (WT) from a generic detection time (DT) as published by the European Horserace Scientific Liaison Committee (EHSLC). Methods: Using Monte Carlo simulations, it was shown that for a low variability of pharmacokinetic parameters (CV = 20%), an uncertainty span of about 40% may be selected to transform a mean DT into a WT (i.e. WT = 1.4 DT), which covers 90% of the horse population. In contrast for a highly variable drug (CV = 40%), an uncertainty factor of about 2.1–2.2 needs to be selected, i.e. a WT that is twice the DT. Results: The relative impact of the different factors of variability on the final WT was documented by a so‐called sensitivity analysis. It was shown that the parameters that have the greatest influence on the value of a DT are those that control the terminal half‐life of the drug disposition. In contrast, parameters controlling the level of urine (or plasma) concentrations (i.e. the actual administered dose, the urine‐to‐plasma ratio and the bioavailability) collectively have a minimal influence on the DT. Conclusions and potential relevance: In practice, this means that the main sources of uncertainty are of biological origin and cannot be reduced by any managerial options. The influence of the number of experimental horses that are used by EHSLC to establish a DT was shown that with the standard EHLSC protocol of 6 horses, half of the trials lead to a proposed DT that is equal to or higher than the population 90^th percentile. Increasing the number of investigated horses to 8 and 10 would increase this last probability to 85 and 90%, respectively.     

曝气池内气液两相流CFD模拟

对曝气池反应器内的气液两相流动进行了三维瞬态数值模拟,模拟采取了双流体模型,液相湍流采用标准k-ε方程,两相间的动量传递只考虑曳力作用。模拟获得了曝气池内的液速及不同径向位置的轴向液速分布、气含率分布等,结果表明,气泡刚开始以直线垂直上升,过一段时间后,气泡的运动开始偏离轴中心,气泡群开始发生了摆动;随着气体速度增大,气含率分布变宽,气含率增大,液体循环液速也在增大,气液之间混合越充分,曝气效果越好。     

基于虚拟设计技术的秸秆粉碎还田机的开发研制

设计研究一种秸秆粉碎还田机,在理论分析的基础上,通过虚拟设计的方法利用UG设计分析软件对该机进行整体结构的参数化设计。在此基础上,利用UG运动及动力分析模块对刀具的强度及刀辊的动平衡进行校核与测试,并对该机刀辊进行模态分析,确定其临界角速度的大小。通过样机的田间试验可知,该机能较好地满足田间作业的技术要求,进而为秸秆粉碎还田机的设计及研究提供参考。     

数量性状两个候选基因检测效率分析

文章采用Monte Carlo模拟方法分析了各种因素对两对数量性状检测效率的影响。采用回归分析法估计候选基因检测分析统计模型的参数;考虑了群体大小(个体数)、候选基因遗传贡献率和基因频率等3个因素。模拟试验结果表明,个体数对检测效率的影响不如遗传贡献率显著;检测高遗传贡献率的候选基因要比低遗传贡献率需要的群体小;基因频率对候选基因的检测效率几乎没有影响。     

On scientists’ discomfort in fisheries advisory science: the example of simulation‐based fisheries management‐strategy evaluations

Scientists feel discomfort when they are asked to create certainty, where none exists, for use as an alibi in policy‐making. Recently, the scientific literature has drawn attention to some pitfalls of simulation‐based fisheries management‐strategy evaluation (MSE). For example, while estimates concerning central tendencies of distributions of simulation outcomes are usually fairly robust because they are conditioned on ample data, estimates concerning the tails of distributions (such as the probability of falling below a critical biomass) are usually conditional on few data and thus often rely on assumptions that have no strong knowledge base. The clients of scientific advice, such as the European Commission, are embracing the mechanization of the evaluation of proposed Harvest Control Rules against the precautionary principle and management objectives. Where the fisheries management institutions aim for simple answers from the scientists, giving ‘green/red light’ to a proposed management strategy, the scientists are forced into a split position between satisfying the demands of their advisory role and living up to the standards of scientific rigour. We argue against the mechanization of scientific advice that aims to incorporate all relevant processes into one big model algorithm that, after construction, can be run without circumspection. We rather encourage that fisheries advice should be a dynamic process of expert judgement, incorporating separate parallel concurrent, lines of scientific evidence, from quantitative and qualitative modelling exercises and factual knowledge of the biology and the fishery dynamics. This process can be formalized to a certain degree and can easily accommodate stakeholder viewpoints.     

Profitability of fungicide applications for managing soybean rust in scenarios of variable efficacy and costs: A stochastic simulation

Soybean rust (SBR) in Brazil is controlled with fungicides, which have shown variable, sometimes declining, efficacy over time. A Monte Carlo simulation framework was implemented as a decision tool and to estimate the probability for a fungicide programme being profitable depending on efficacy and total cost defined by the user. Probability distributions were fitted to slopes and intercepts of the disease–yield relationship and severity in the untreated plots reported in the literature, as well as historical records of soybean price. Simulations of disease reduction conditioned to predefined control efficacy and total application costs were split into scenarios that combined two categories of severity (high and low) and two attainable yield classes (high and low). These categories were defined based on the median of severity (57.8%) and median of the intercept (yield when severity is zero, 2995.1 kg/ha). Probability matrices were constructed relating fungicide efficacy and costs. A higher frequency of break-even events occurred in scenarios of high disease pressure and higher yield. Yearly simulations, starting with 79.4% efficacy, assuming two rates of decline previously determined for tebuconazole (high decline rate), showed that the programme may remain profitable during the first 5 to 7 years of use, in contrast to cyproconazole (low decline rate), a fungicide that would be profitable during the entire decade. This approach was shown to be useful and can be adapted to other diseases of soybean and other crops, as long as damage functions are available. An interactive web app was developed to perform the simulations accessible at alvesks.shinyapps.io/rusty-profits/.     

液力缓速器空转损耗的全流道仿真计算与试验

为了形成液力缓速器空转损耗的分析计算方法,该文以自主开发的THB40液力缓速器样机为基础,系统分析并绘制了产生空转损耗的流场结构图,建立了全流道空转损耗计算模型,运用CFD技术分别对全工况范围内均布的16个转速点进行空转损耗全流道仿真计算;采用消除机械摩擦损耗的组合式台架试验方法进行空转损耗测试;对比分析全流道仿真计算结果与台架测试结果,相对误差率在11.8%以内,吻合度较高,证实了全流道仿真计算结果的可靠性,为进一步开展液力缓速器优化设计提供了分析计算的方法及理论基础。     

Marine and Semi-Synthetic Hydroxysteroids as New Scaffolds for Pregnane X Receptor Modulation

In recent years many sterols with unusual structures and promising biological profiles have been identified from marine sources. Here we report the isolation of a series of 24-alkylated-hydroxysteroids from the soft coral Sinularia kavarattiensis, acting as pregnane X receptor (PXR) modulators. Starting from this scaffold a number of derivatives were prepared and evaluated for their ability to activate the PXR by assessing transactivation and quantifying gene expression. Our study reveals that ergost-5-en-3β-ol (4) induces PXR transactivation in HepG2 cells and stimulates the expression of the PXR target gene CYP3A4. To shed light on the molecular basis of the interaction between these ligands and PXR, we investigated, through docking simulations, the binding mechanism of the most potent compound of the series, 4, to the PXR. Our findings provide useful functional and structural information to guide further investigations and drug design.     

不同湍流模型在轴流泵叶顶泄漏涡模拟中的应用与验证

为寻求一种经济、适合的湍流模型模拟轴流泵叶顶泄漏涡的结构和运动特性,该文基于ANSYS CFX软件平台,优化了六面体网格拓扑结构,比较了标准k-ε湍流模型（standard k-ε）、重正化群k-ε湍流模型（renormalization group k-ε,RNG）,标准k-ω湍流模型（standard k-ω）和SST k-ω湍流模型（shear stress transport）等4种湍流模型在轴流泵叶顶泄漏涡模拟中的计算精度和叶顶泄漏涡流场特征。数值模拟和试验结果表明,在最优工况下,SST k-ω湍流模型预测外特性曲线与试验曲线吻合较好,扬程误差为4.688%,较其他3种湍流模型准确;4种湍流模型计算的叶顶泄漏涡流线、叶顶区压力场和轴面速度场分布规律相似,但RNG k-ε和SST k-ω湍流模型计算的涡卷吸较强,涡带的旋涡强度相对较大。基于旋涡强度提出了一种对叶顶泄漏涡的涡心进行识别的方法,并与高速摄影拍摄的涡带结果进行了对比,在设计流量工况和大流量工况下,发现SST k-ω湍流模型计算的叶顶泄漏涡运动轨迹与试验结果吻合度较好,验证了SST k-ω湍流模型在轴流泵叶顶泄漏涡模拟具有较好的适用性。