河西走廊东部地面温度的变化特征及影响因子分析

利用河西走廊东部4个气象站近50 a地面0 cm温度及年气温、蒸发、降水、相对湿度和风速等观测资料,运用线性趋势系数法系统分析了河西走廊东部近50 a地面温度的空间分布、时间变化趋势及极值变化等特征,采用多元线性回归中的标准化回归系数分析了影响地面温度的气象因子。结果表明：受天气系统、地形地貌以及海拔高度等影响,河西走廊东部地面温度低海拔平原区大于高海拔山区。各地年、年代地面温度呈很显著上升趋势,年地面温度的时间序列存在着6～9 a的准周期变化;月地面温度变化比较一致;各地各季节地面温度也呈上升趋势,春、夏季上升率大于秋、冬季;各地年极端最高和最低地面温度也均呈上升趋势,极端最低地面温度的上升率大于极端最高地面温度的上升率,因此冬季增温对年地面温度升高贡献大于夏季。河西走廊东部地面温度的主要影响因子是最低气温和平均气温,其次是降水、平均风速和相对湿度,最高气温的影响较弱,蒸发的影响最弱。地面温度与平均、最高、最低气温呈正相关,与降水、相对湿度以及平均风速呈负相关,与蒸发无相关性。影响各地地面温度的主要因子有所不同。     

新疆地区民族中小学体育风险管理研究*

研究呈现新疆民族中小学体育意外伤害发生特征,提出相应的风险管理策略。结果发现,民族中小学生因好动不羁个性、宗教特征,男生意外伤害高于女生,体育训练与竞赛风险发生率较高,足球成为频次最高的项目,学生自身和场地环境为主要风险因素,教师在风险管理策略选择上处于被动地位。     

我国农药地下水环境风险评估场景体系的建立

根据国际通用的标准场景和环境脆弱性概念,利用GIS技术,以我国气象、土壤、农业生产等数据为基础,构建农药环境风险评估过程"现实中最糟糕的情况"。针对旱地作物和地下水这一环境系统,将我国划分为6个农药地下水环境风险评估场景区,并在此基础上构建了11个标准场景点,从而形成针对旱地作物的我国农药地下水环境风险评估场景体系。利用欧盟农药环境暴露模型PEARL测试该场景体系,运行结果显示该场景体系科学可行。该场景体系的建立既为运用定量模型进行我国农药环境风险评估奠定了重要基础,也为我国农药环境风险管理、农药登记管理工作提供了技术支持和科学依据。     

China-PEARL和PRZM-GW模型潍坊市场景农药地下水风险评估研究

农药地下水暴露模型China-PEARL已开始在我国农药地下水风险评估中应用。本文利用China-PEARL潍坊市场景数据,为PRZM-GW构建了潍坊市场景。在潍坊市场景下,利用2个模型计算了56种农药在5种作物上共计145种施用方式下的预测环境浓度(PEC)值,利用商值法(RQ)进行风险评估。结果显示有8种农药共13种施用方式在潍坊市场景下存在不可接受的地下水风险。其中,2个模型均显示有不可接受风险的农药是多菌灵和氟磺胺草醚。2个模型PEC值比较结果显示,PRZM-GW的农药风险评估趋势与China-PEARL一致性高,从而验证了China-PEARL的可信性。模型PEC值影响因素分析显示,土壤有机碳分配系数(Koc)对2个模型输出影响最大,可将Koc>400L·kg^-1作为判断某种农药预测浓度<0.1μg·L^-1经验性指标。2个模型的PEC值和土壤好氧半衰期的对数呈线性关系,当土壤好氧半衰期>10d时,模型的PEC值随土壤好氧半衰期的增大而迅速增高。水解半衰期为PRZM-GW模型输入项,决定了PRZM-GW模型模拟的农药浓度随年变化趋势。水中溶解度是China-PEARL的输入项,但对模型PEC值影响很小。     

体外模拟实验法评价湘南某矿区大米中重金属的人体健康风险

为了评价大米中重金属对人体健康风险的影响,在湘南某矿区和非矿区采集大米样品,运用人工模拟实验方法,评价大米中Pb、Zn、Cu、Cd和As的摄入量和生物可给量。结果表明:矿区大米重金属Pb、Zn、Cu、Cd和As的含量分别为2.03、30.08、6.57、2.34、3.80 mg·kg-1,非矿区大米重金属含量分别为1.03、8.65、1.52、0.15、0.30 mg·kg-1,成人和儿童因食用矿区大米而摄入的Pb(789.23、562.00μg·d-1)、Zn(11 701.12、8 332.16μg·d-1)、Cu(2 555.73、1 819.89μg·d-1)、Cd(910.26、648.18μg·d-1)和As(1 478.20、1 052.60μg·d-1)超过因食用非矿区大米而摄入的Pb(400.67、285.31μg·d-1)、Zn(3364.57、2395.84μg·d-1)、Cu(591.18、420.97μg·d-1)、Cd(58.51、41.67μg·d-1)和As(116.70、83.10μg·d-1)。模拟成人和儿童胃阶段和小肠阶段,矿区大米中Pb、Zn、Cu、Cd和As的平均生物可给量都大于非矿区大米中重金属的平均生物可给量;模拟胃阶段矿区大米中Pb、Zn、Cu、Cd和As的平均生物可给量都大于模拟小肠阶段重金属的平均生物可给量。在模拟胃消化阶段,矿区大米中Cd的生物可给量分别是每周可耐受摄入量的3.11倍(成人)和4.42倍(儿童);在模拟小肠阶段,对于成人矿区大米中Pb、Cd和As的生物可给量没有超过每周可耐受摄入量,而对于儿童矿区大米中Pb和Cd的生物可给量都超过了每周可耐受摄入量。因此,矿区成人和儿童通过食用该区域大米将会对其身体产生健康风险,其中对儿童的健康危害更加明显。     

气象因子对油菜根肿病发生的影响

根据安徽黄山市2008-2012年的气象资料和田间调查的病情,采用逐步回归和通径分析法,分析了气象因子与油菜根肿病发病率的关系。结果表明,9月份月均温、9月上旬降雨量和9月下旬降雨量与根肿病发病率关系最密切。建立了油菜根肿病的预测模型。     

农村老人入住养老院意愿及影响因素分析——以湖北省黄金村为例

随着农村人口老龄化的速度越来越快,如何解决农村老年人口的养老问题是当今中国政府面临的一大难题。由于农村大量年轻劳动力的转移和农村家庭结构的变迁,家庭养老方式的功能正逐步弱化,养老社会化成为了必然选择。通过实地调研,对于农村老人入住养老院的意愿以及其影响因素进行了分析,并提出在建设社会化养老服务体系的大背景下,促进农村养老机构发展的路径。     

Enigmatic hotspot of crayfish diversity at risk: Invasive potential of non‐indigenous crayfish if introduced to New Guinea

1. The large island of New Guinea has a rich indigenous astacofauna represented by numerous parastacids from the genus Cherax. The western half of the island is part of Indonesian territory.
2. Indonesia is known to be the main exporter of ornamental crayfish globally, and certain New Guinean species are exploited as ornamentals within the international pet trade. Moreover, one non‐indigenous species has been previously recorded being cultured in Java, Indonesia. This species, the North American Procambarus clarkii, is a vector of crayfish plague, the disease that is lethal to most parastacids. This population has already tested positive for the disease.
3. As the transport of non‐indigenous crayfish within the Indonesian territory is not restricted, their introduction to New Guinea can be expected. The Indonesian market was therefore surveyed for ornamental crayfish and their environmental suitability evaluated, as represented by temperature during the drought and rainy seasons in New Guinea.
4. Four North American and one Australian species were found advertised for sale. One of them, P. clarkii, was assessed as the most damaging species, followed by other North American species. A total ban on the culture and transport of the highest risk crayfish species in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea is recommended.

     

Density effects on length at maturity of walleye pollock <Emphasis Type="Italic">Theragra chalcogramma</Emphasis> off the pacific coast of northern Japan in the 1990s

To determine how stock abundance fluctuations of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma are related to variations in reproductive characteristics, the length at 50% maturity of the fish sampled off the Pacific coast of northern Japan from 1990 to 1999 was examined. In both sexes, the fish density increased, and the body length of age-3-5 fish decreased, but the condition factor and the age at 50% maturity showed no clear trend during this period. Male length at 50% maturity decreased, while value for females showed no clear trend. In both sexes, significant negative correlations were found between density index (combined age-3-5) and each body length at age-3-5. Significant positive correlations were seen between each body length at age-3-5 and length at 50% maturity in males. Positive correlation between body length at age-5 and length at 50% maturity was significant in females from 1990 to 1999, except for the samples in 1998. We suggest that the fish density might affect the length at maturity in males and possibly also in females.     

气候和土壤质地对中国东北地区旱地土壤有机碳影响的尺度效应

Understanding how spatial scale inffuences commonly-observed effiects of climate and soil texture on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage is important for accurately estimating the SOC pool at different scales. The relationships among climate factors, soil texture and SOC density at the regional, provincial, city, and county scales were evaluated at both the soil surface (0-20 cm) and throughout the soil profile (0-100 cm) in the Northeast China uplands. We examined 1022 profiles obtained from the Second National Soil Survey of China. The results indicated that the relationships between climate factors and SOC density generally weakened with decreasing spatial scale. The provincial scale was optimal to assess the relationship between climate factors and SOC density because regional differences among provinces were covered up at the regional scale. However, the relationship between soil texture and SOC density had no obvious trend with increasing scale and changed with temperature. There were great differences in the impacts of climate factors and soil texture on SOC density at different scales. Climate factors had a larger effect on SOC density than soil texture at the regional scale. Similar trends were seen in Heilongjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia at the provincial scale. But, soil texture had a greater effect on SOC density compared with climate factors in Jilin and Liaoning. At the city and county scales, the inffuence of soil texture on SOC density was more important than climate factors.