Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.     

Grass-dominated vegetation, not species-diverse natural savanna, replaces degraded tropical forests on the southern edge of the Amazon Basin

Changes in land-uses, fire regimes, and climate are expected to promote savanna expansion in the Amazon Basin, but most studies that come to this conclusion fail to define “savanna” clearly or imply that natural savannas of native species will spread at the expense of forest. Given their different conservation values, we sought to differentiate between species-diverse natural savannas and other types of fire-maintained grass-dominated vegetation that replaced tropical forests between 1986 and 2005 in 22,500 km² of eastern lowland Bolivia. Analysis of Landsat TM and CBERS-2 satellite imagery revealed that, in addition to 1200 km² (7.1%) of deforestation for agriculture and planted pastures, 1420 km² (8.4%) of forest was replaced by derived savannas. Sampling in 2008 showed that natural savannas differed from forest-replacing derived savannas floristically, in soil fertility, and in fuel loads. Natural savannas typically occurred on sandy, acidic, nutrient-poor soils whereas most derived savannas were on comparatively fertile soils. Fuel loads in derived savannas were twice those of natural savannas. Natural savannas supported a diversity of grass species, whereas derived savannas were usually dominated by Guadua paniculata (native bamboo), Urochloa spp. (exotic forages), Imperata brasiliensis (native invasive), Digitaria insularis (native ruderal), or the native fire-adapted herb Hyptis suaveolens (Lamiaceae). Trees in derived savannas were forest species (e.g., Anadenanthera colubrina) and fire-tolerant palms (Attalea spp.), not thick-barked species characteristic of savanna environments (e.g., Curatella americana). In addressing tropical vegetation transitions it is clearly important to distinguish between native species-diverse ecosystems and novel derived vegetation of similar structure.     

The paradox of keystone species persecuted as pests: A call for the conservation of abundant small mammals in their native range

Small mammals, such as European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), plateau pikas (Ochotona curzoniae) and prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.), traditionally have been perceived as pests and targeted for control within their native ranges, where they perform essential ecosystem roles and are considered keystone species. These species can reach high densities, and have been subjected to eradication campaigns because of their putative negative impact on natural habitats and agriculture and their competition with livestock for forage. Eradication programmes have been a main factor causing sharp declines of these species in their natural ranges. Paradoxically, they are keystone species where they are abundant enough to be perceived as pests. The term “pest” is usually a social perception that is rarely supported by scientific data, whereas there is considerable scientific evidence of the key ecological roles played by these species. We call for the conservation of these species and present a conceptual model regarding the management of their populations. Where they occur at high numbers, and hence their effects on biodiversity are still of crucial importance, the persecution of these species should be avoided and their natural habitats preserved. In areas with high conservation value, but where these species occur at low densities, management efforts should aim to increase their density. In areas of high commercial value, managers ideally should consider changing prioritization of the area to high conservation value by purchasing the land or obtaining conservation easements. In situations with high commercial value and demonstrable low conservation concern, small mammals could be reduced humanely.     

A review of the conservation threats to carnivorous plants

Over half of the carnivorous plant species assessed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) are listed as threatened (i.e. vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered), but the threats to carnivorous plants have not previously been quantified systematically. In this review, we quantify the conservation threats to carnivorous plant taxa worldwide. Using the IUCN Red List, a literature search of Web of Knowledge, and the National Red Lists database, we collected data on the threats to 48 species of carnivorous plants from nine genera. The most common threat was habitat loss from agriculture, followed by the collection of wild plants, pollution, and natural systems modifications. A principal coordinate analysis revealed that species within a genus often faced similar threats, and an indicator species analysis found positive associations among species in the genus Sarracenia and agricultural activities, over-collection, invasive species, and pollution. Future research should further quantify the effects of pollution on carnivorous plants, and more thoroughly examine the potential role of carnivorous plants as indicator species for wetland health. More research is also needed to quantify the extinction risk for many carnivorous plants, as presently only around 17% of species have been assessed by the IUCN. Ensuring the conservation of carnivorous plants will help maintain the important ecosystem services they provide and prevent secondary extinctions of specialist species that rely on them.     

Adapting the IUCN Red List criteria for invertebrates

The IUCN Red List is the most useful list of species that are at risk for extinction worldwide, as it relies on a number of objective criteria. Nevertheless, there is a taxonomic bias that excludes species with small body sizes, narrow distribution ranges and low dispersal abilities, which constitute the vast majority of the planet’s biota, particularly local endemics.By evaluating each IUCN criterion separately, we (i) identify the shortcomings for invertebrate applications, (ii) explain how risk categories may be wrongly applied due to inapplicable and/or misleading thresholds, (iii) suggest alternative ways of applying the existing criteria in a more realistic way and (iv) suggest possible new criteria that were not considered in the current evaluation framework but that could allow a more comprehensive and effective assessment of invertebrates.By adapting the criteria to rely more explicitly on the Area of Occupancy and the Extent of Occurrence, their respective trends and by using ecological modelling methods, the criteria’s applicability would be increased. The change in some thresholds or, eventually, the creation of sub-categories would further increase their adequacy. Additionally, co-extinction could be introduced as an explicit part of the classification process.As a case study, we evaluated 48 species of Azorean arthropods and Iberian spiders according to the current criteria. More than one-quarter (27%) of all evaluated species were classified as Critically Endangered, 19% as Endangered, 6% as Vulnerable and 8% as Least Concern. The remaining 40% did not have enough data to reach a classification.     

Wind dispersal of oribatid mites as a mode of migration

Oribatid mites are important colonizers of young soils, but little is known about their immigration pathways. In this study, one often-stated hypothesis was tested quantitatively: that wind is an important dispersal pathway. The aim was (1) to detect wind dispersal in oribatid mites (using sticky traps at different heights above ground level) and to determine factors influencing wind dispersal, (2) to investigate whether oribatids can survive wind dispersal and immigrate by wind into young soils (using mini-pitfall traps in test plots with oribatid-free substrate, active immigration being prohibited) and (3) to find out whether those oribatids are able to colonize young soils (using soil cores from the test plots). The results demonstrate (1) that mainly arboreal oribatid species were dispersed by wind - even at 160 m height - and can therefore be spread over large distances. Nevertheless, about 10% of the wind-dispersed oribatid mites belonged to species able to live in the soil and may therefore be potential colonizers of young soils. The number of specimen and species transported by wind was the highest close to the soil surface and the number of dispersed individuals was mainly influenced by seasonality and humidity. The results also suggest that the probability of a soil oribatid being dispersed by wind depends on its original microhabitat (tree habitats > soil surface > deeper soil layers) and its body weight. It was also shown that soil-dwelling oribatid mites survived wind dispersal and immigrated by wind into the test plots and that colonization of the test plots took at least 2 months longer than immigration. However, colonization success was low during the first 2 years of investigation and only Trichoribates incisellus was found several times in the nutrient-poor substrate. Therefore, wind dispersal is an important migration pathway, especially for arboreal oribatids. We suggest that immigration into young soils most likely occurs by repeated short-distance dispersal. Only some species are able to survive the hostile conditions of wind dispersal as well as of pioneer soils, but those that do are potentially the founders of new populations.     

Effectiveness of conservation easements for reducing development and maintaining biodiversity in sagebrush ecosystems

Conservation easements are the primary tool used globally by land trusts and governmental agencies to achieve conservation goals on private lands, but empirical evaluations of their effectiveness are lacking. Here we compared biodiversity in sagebrush ecosystems and recent rates of change in road and structure densities on properties with and without easements held by The Nature Conservancy in Wyoming, USA. To determine whether any differences between properties with and without easements were better explained by development pressure or by management practices, properties were stratified by low versus high residential development pressure and property managers were surveyed. In areas with high development pressure, easement properties had fewer structures and tended to have fewer, smaller roads than properties without easements. In the high-pressure areas, properties with easements also had greater use by some wildlife species than properties without easements. Regardless of easement presence, there was higher cover of exotic plant species and fewer mammal burrows in high than low-pressure areas. There were no significant differences in land management practices between properties with and without easements, but managers of properties with easements tended to seek management support more often than other managers. This may present an opportunity to provide support for specific management activities on easements to ensure that they continue to meet intended goals. Given the importance of easements as an alternative to nature reserves and the significant investment being made to acquire additional easements, it is essential to continue to evaluate whether easements are an effective tool in other locations.     

Turning back the tide of American mink invasion at an unprecedented scale through community participation and adaptive management

Successful eradications of harmful invasive species have been mostly confined to islands while control programs in mainland areas remain small, uncoordinated and vulnerable to recolonisation. To allow the recovery of threatened native species, innovative management strategies are required to remove invasives from large areas. We took an adaptive approach to achieve large scale eradication of invasive American mink in North East Scotland. The project was centred on the Cairngorms National Park (Scotland), with the primary aim of protecting endangered water vole populations. The project was initiated by scientists and supported and implemented through a partnership comprising a government agency, national park authority and local fisheries boards. Capitalising on the convergent interests of a diverse range of local stakeholders, we created a coordinated coalition of trained volunteers to detect and trap mink. Starting in montane headwaters, we systematically moved down river catchments, deploying mink rafts, an effective detection and trapping platform. Volunteers took increasing responsibility for raft monitoring and mink trapping as the project progressed. Within 3 years, the project removed 376 mink from 10570 km² with the involvement of 186 volunteers. Capture rate within sub-catchments increased with greater connectivity to mink in other sub-catchments and with proximity to the coast where there is more productive habitat. The main factor underpinning the success of this project was functional volunteer participation. The project is a reason for optimism that the tide of invasion can be rolled back on a large scale where the convergent interest of local communities can be harnessed.     

Impacts of climate change on Swiss biodiversity: An indicator taxa approach

We present a new indicator taxa approach to the prediction of climate change effects on biodiversity at the national level in Switzerland. As indicators, we select a set of the most widely distributed species that account for 95% of geographical variation in sampled species richness of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants. Species data come from a national program designed to monitor spatial and temporal trends in species richness. We examine some opportunities and limitations in using these data. We develop ecological niche models for the species as functions of both climate and land cover variables. We project these models to the future using climate predictions that correspond to two IPCC 3rd assessment scenarios for the development of ‘greenhouse’ gas emissions. We find that models that are calibrated with Swiss national monitoring data perform well in 10-fold cross-validation, but can fail to capture the hot-dry end of environmental gradients that constrain some species distributions. Models for indicator species in all three higher taxa predict that climate change will result in turnover in species composition even where there is little net change in predicted species richness. Indicator species from high elevations lose most areas of suitable climate even under the relatively mild B2 scenario. We project some areas to increase in the number of species for which climate conditions are suitable early in the current century, but these areas become less suitable for a majority of species by the end of the century. Selection of indicator species based on rank prevalence results in a set of models that predict observed species richness better than a similar set of species selected based on high rank of model AUC values. An indicator species approach based on selected species that are relatively common may facilitate the use of national monitoring data for predicting climate change effects on the distribution of biodiversity.     

鸡解耦联蛋白基因型与活性氧含量、初生重的相关性分析

为了研究解耦联蛋白基因(uncoupling protein,UCP)对鸡(Gallus gallus)初生重及活性氧含量的影响,本实验通过对3个品种鸡初生重、UCP C353T多态位点基因型以及肌肉组织活性氧(ROS)含量的测定,发现丝羽乌鸡ROS值显著低于白莱航、寿光鸡,UCP TT基因型ROS值显著高于CT和CC基因型,而ROS含量与雏鸡初生重之间存在着正向的相关性(r=0.5011),UCP TT基因型的初生重显著高于CT和CC基因型。实验结果揭示了鸡UCP基因型对初生重性状具有选择效应。